I found it really hard to make a prediction for this question and finally decided not to move very far from the base rate. **Base rates** I tried to determine the base rate for an indictment happening during the first 669 days after the start of an investigation, i.e. the number of days between the opening of the investigation on March 2, 2022 and December 31, 2023, which is the last day Putin can be charged for positive resolution. If we only consider situations where suspects have already been indicted for crimes other than contempt of court (these ...

@Glossy As I understand it, you are saying that the troop build-up is a response to Washington's "shouting", but isn't it the other way round? Isn't everybody talking of the possibility of a Russian invasion because of the build-up?

I'd like to see a question about when sanctions against Russia will be lifted. Since there is a bunch of them, maybe starting with one about the sanctions against its central bank.

@(jonasb) > How long have past trials taken from the point of evidence showing up to persons being indicted? I have written a base rate analysis of the time between the opening of an investigation (not against anyone in particular, but in a 'situation') in a [comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/#comment-85592) below. That of course is not the point of evidence showing up, but it seemed more relevant to me than the earliest date of an incident being investigated because I suppose that the prosecution does most...

@Joker This question is about the period until 2024, i.e. one year and ten months, so if soldiers continue to die at such a rate, this would resolve positively, right? That, however, seems unlikely to me. At least, adding 200 or 300k (or more, idk) wounded soldiers to 100k deaths, the numbers would exceed the size of the regular Ukrainian armed forces, so it would be hard to sustain the fighting for so long.

This comment was originally posted on 100,000

I think the community updated way too much on the latest change of the resolution criteria (which I btw object to like everybody else; the goal as it is stated now seems clear enough and it seems unnecessary to defer to the Initiative). The chess, go, image or language AI crowds did not shift their goal posts and I fail to see why the soccer people should do so. The Initiative would have to explain such a shift to its stakeholders, who I suppose would not welcome that. Somebody mentioned that the world champion team might refuse to play, motivating such ...

@probahilliby The article states that the man had received years-long training for this mission, so the mission must have been planned a long time ago and probably with the situation in Georgia in mind as is suggested in the article. Maybe there is some information in the fact that they sent him now, but again that might also be related to the recent indictments in the Georgia case.

[Edit: I'm somewhat surprised that Russia cares so much about the ICC.]

— edited by jowo

@(jowo) @kievalet ICC Prosecutor Khan already has applied for first arrest warrants for three South Ossetians a week ago. His [statement](https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=20220310-prosecutor-statement-georgia) also mentions: > The investigation also uncovered the alleged role of Vyacheslav Borisov, Major General in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Deputy Commander of the Airborne Forces at the time of events, who is believed to have intentionally contributed to the execution of some of these crimes, and is now deceased. Maybe ...
The 47,303 number from January was based on preliminary data and seems to have been corrected. A [press release](https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/pressemitteilungen/DE/2022/05/pmk2021.html) from the Federal Ministry of the Interior (in German, sorry) gives a number of 55,048. However, 10,487 of these were registered in the context of elections, mostly the federal elections (which was unexpected to me, I don't remember hearing about any crimes at the time). This number is from a [pdf](https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/veroeffentlichungen/...
There will be two regular elections of the parliament in 2023 and 2027 and one presidential election in 2025 in that period. From what I have read about Polish politics, since the president can veto a law, both institutions would have to favor same-sex marriage. I think it is slightly more likely than not that PiS wins the elections at least until after 2025 (55%) and I would assume that the opposition will support civil unions at most (60%). (For instance, the opposition candidate in the last presidential elections while [supportive of queer rights](htt...

Former ICC investigator Carla Del Ponte calls Putin a war criminal and demands a arrest warrant. Unfortunately, the interview is paywalled. She also is reported to have said that finding proofs would be difficult.


I wonder what cases you have in mind involving Myanmar and Israel.

If I may answer instead of @helpermonkey, I believe these would be the situations in Bangladesh, which "encompasses the 2016 and 2017 waves of violence which allegedly took place in Rakhine State, on the territory of Myanmar" and in Palestine. There is an overview about all situations the ICC investigates here.

@(kievalet) > Interested to learn how many people from Permanent members of the U.N. Security Council have been indicted. Or how many people who wield nuclear weapons. Or how many Northern Hemisphere leaders. None, but I don't think it's quite as simple as that. There was a preliminary investigation against people from the UK because of alleged war crimes in Iraq, which eventually did not lead to an indictment (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_and_the_2003_invasion_of_Iraq)). The ICC is also investigating becaus...


How would ICC move faster against an invader while the war is raging?

That is an excellent question! But I believe the ICC often has investigated under difficult conditions, which is why I think the base rates are important. Also, I assume that this conflict will be much better covered by well-funded intelligence communities of countries with some interest in an indictment. The US already stated that they might provide evidence to international courts.

I have no idea how to formalize this, but: When will OpenAI consider ChatGPT fully aligned/unable to produce violent content?

@rappatoni Excellent comments, I am, however, only at 32% because the city council seems to be making plans for the coming winter. There seems no indication yet that they want to extend the operation until the winter 23/24 and they might as well stop it in spring. Also, I think it will always be very much possible for a federal government to ignore the demands of local politicians even if they are of the same party, particularly should the results of the stress test contradict SWM's analysis.

It is permissible if the marriages can only take place in some parts of Poland but not other parts.

Could that even happen? I would have assumed that marriage is regulated by national law.

@jowo @EvanHarper @pantaleonfassbender Maybe the information in the question should be updated? - Don't know whom to ping in that case?

@ForkLeaf An independent Catalonia would not automatically be part of the EU, so that should not count, I think.

@Nausica I've been thinking that adding the condition that the statement should not be retracted within 1 month (or X months) might be a good idea. That could also cover the sarcasm issue.