@Jgalt I wouldn't even worry about whether or not the samples are present. That fridge door seal seems to be at least 3rd level containment (after plastic vial and the box). I doubt that "broken" seal made any substantial difference.
Also, the lack of a positive pressure personnel suit suggests whatever is in those vials is not so dangerous.
Derek Lowe's Coronavirus Vaccine Prospects article published today is worth a read. Also links to many good resources.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Tuesday that U.S. intelligence indicates that the coronavirus likely occurred naturally, as opposed to being created in a laboratory in China, but there is no certainty either way.
The broad scientific consensus holds that SARS-CoV-2, the virus’ official name, originated in bats.
New weekly report (their emphasis):
In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000 a [...]
Does it make sense the use the seasonally adjusted values for computing predictions?
My guess is yes, since the value we are predicting is seasonally adjusted IIRC, although I have been using the unadjusted values in my toy model: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15723
Reduced uncertainty as we now have a new data point with latest weekly figures.
My relatively naïve model is here: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15723
I've been using the unadjusted weekly numbers, which might not be wise, since the final result is seasonally adjusted, but I couldn't be bothered to factor those changes in :D
According to Politico: the State Department is set to announce a Level 4 travel advisory applying to all international travel. Not sure how this translates to CDC warnings.
Current daily deaths averaged over 6 days is 55-106 (.25-.75 confidence based of std. dev.) That gives me 1045-2014 deaths over the next 19 days, with 1,349 deaths declared to date.
I've adjusted that prediction down ever so slightly, but between the slowing death rate, and more tests, I'm assuming things will stay relatively constant for a while.
From the UK Gov page:
Data from around 5 days ago can be considered complete. Data for recent days are constantly being revised as more information becomes available.
This is clear from looking at the data, and since the question seems to be clear, I take it that the result is as visible on the day, not after stabilisation adjustments.