An important question that this whole thing hinges on is:

“By the end of 2022, will Ukraine be a NATO Membership Action Plan participant?”

You can read about it here at the NATO website. Currently the only participant is Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Any interest in that being a question here for us to predict?

(Edit: we could do 2023 as well.)

— edited by johnnycaffeine

Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.

GJOpen has it at 70% that an agreement is signed or announced by December 1st: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2319-will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-announce-an-agreement-to-end-the-current-conflict-in-ukraine It's a slightly different version of the question than this one: 1) Expiration is a month earlier. 2) Their version requires a signing or mutual announcement but not that the two sides stick to it. 3) The agreement must be permanent in the GJOpen version 4) The agreement must cover all of Ukraine, while the Metaculus requirement is for the ma...

Fresh SEC filing here. Elon has brought in an additional $7.1 billion from co-investors and thereby reduced his own stake in post-acquisition Twitter by that amount.

In general can we get some more short-term questions? That gives people a chance to score some points around here. I’ll work on creating some myself

@(andreferretti) from a business perspective there’s a lot of low hanging fruit with Twitter. Just as one example, there were 2,000 employees in the company when it went public in 2013 and there are 7,500 today. The site is barely more complex today than it was then, so what are all those extra employees doing all day? Or another example is corporate headquarters, 700,000 ft.² in San Francisco, which is one of the most expensive cities in the entire world. So Elon could easily come in as interim, work a day or two a week, make the necessary decisions ...

I would hope he could make that particular blog post free to read, because there is not a way to read his reasoning on these predictions without paying. Otherwise these questions are basically free advertisements for his site?

— edited by johnnycaffeine

Now that we're a no, does someone want to create the February version of this question? @nextbigfuture are you available? The main question is still at 47%

@Sylvain Just to make sure I understand, we are predicting the colored-in portions of this map, correct? Thank you.

Will Chinese fighter planes enter Taiwan’s air space by the end of 2021? I’m not talking about Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, but the airspace itself. IMO this could become a semi-permanent short-fuse question that renews every few months

@(Jgalt) a factor that is important in politics is earned media. Just make sure they [spell your name right](https://www.nku.edu/~turney/prclass/readings/3eras1x.html). I counted 11 big news stories for Yang generated just on this bodega thing in the past 24 hours (let alone any other issue!), most of it from local NY media. By contrast I could only find one story each for Scott Stringer and Eric Adams focused on them. If this continues, it means Yang is sucking up all of the [earned media oxygen](https://www.thestreet.com/politics/donald-trump-rode-5-bi...

Check out this chart showing the collapse of the ruble: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

How hard will the riot police work, knowing they're getting paid in worthless currency? This thing could be unraveling fast for Mr. Putin.

Can we please edit the question from this...

"Will Russia invade Ukraine beyond existing occupied territory in Crimea before February 1, 2022?"

To this...

"Will Russia invade Ukraine beyond existing occupied territory in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk before February 1, 2022?"

@(davidmoriartyak) To me the simplest explanation is that it’s a low cost bargaining chip. Talk is cheap, and there are lots of wide ranging things being negotiated right now, including the status of the caucuses region, so why would Russia not want this low-cost bargaining chip to be added to the overall mix? It’s not that they would never attack. If NATO were to extend the membership action plan to Ukraine, I would expect an attack to be imminent. By the way, the US is also using Ukraine as a bargaining chip, because on its side it can threaten to exte...
Andrew Yang holds "commanding lead" in [new poll](https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-andrew-yang-mayors-race-poll-stringer-adams-wiley-garcia-donovan-20210210-s7we2lawyrcifhaegh4xszqvfa-story.html), 28% for Yang vs. 17% for Adams and 13% for Stringer. Personally, I think it's still early to read too much into this poll, but make of it what you will. Also, wanted to recommend a good [Old Bull podcast episode](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL29sZGJ1bGwvZmVlZC54bWw/episode/b2xkYnVsb...
@(dadonk) Another recent big M&A, which happened the same day Twitter sold, is PS Business Parks, Inc., which leases offices and warehouses. It's being bought by Blackstone for $187.50 and is currently trading at $187.09. It is expected to close sometime in the 3rd quarter of this year. [(source)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220424005123/en/Affiliates-of-Blackstone-Real-Estate-to-Acquire-PS-Business-Parks-Inc.-for-7.6-Billion) There will be two expected dividends of $1.05 a share between now and then. So the return is about 1.3%. Annualized...
In the past couple days I have seen sentiment on social media for Ukraine to do a small-scale, limited ground invasion of Russia to hit Belgorod. [Example.](https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1524523575021035520). I'm sure cooler heads would prevail and this likely wouldn't happen, but you could certainly game out some scenario in which some highly-motivated Ukrainian ground forces, which are highly dispersed and not necessarily tightly controlled from Kyiv, cross the border into Russia. Over night this would galvanize Russian domestic opinion to...

@Joker Please read about the removal of Nikita Khrushchev. No government is a monolith. There are always different power centers in a government and society. So everyone, no matter how powerful they are, has political opponents -- and like Khrushchev if Putin's popularity falls enough, and it's perceived to be due to his policy failings, then there will be factions working behind the scenes.

Biden's most recent medical assessment can be found [here](https://go.joebiden.com/page/-/CiU2iAa4Ig_%20j5EQzueoad.pdf) (PDF format). I Googled the numbers and would like to see his HDL numbers be higher and his blood pressure to improve, but overall these numbers look good and I trust the doctor's judgment. I could be wrong, but I think his health (not his chronological age) is the #1 factor to look at throughout his presidency, as long as his approval rating remains good and it's being reported that he wants to remain POTUS. Good luck to everyone, an...