An important question that this whole thing hinges on is:
“By the end of 2022, will Ukraine be a NATO Membership Action Plan participant?”
You can read about it here at the NATO website. Currently the only participant is Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Any interest in that being a question here for us to predict?
(Edit: we could do 2023 as well.)
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Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.
All diplomatic staff gone by Tuesday: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Fresh SEC filing here. Elon has brought in an additional $7.1 billion from co-investors and thereby reduced his own stake in post-acquisition Twitter by that amount.
In general can we get some more short-term questions? That gives people a chance to score some points around here. I’ll work on creating some myself
I would hope he could make that particular blog post free to read, because there is not a way to read his reasoning on these predictions without paying. Otherwise these questions are basically free advertisements for his site?
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Now that we're a no, does someone want to create the February version of this question? @nextbigfuture are you available? The main question is still at 47%
Will Chinese fighter planes enter Taiwan’s air space by the end of 2021? I’m not talking about Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, but the airspace itself. IMO this could become a semi-permanent short-fuse question that renews every few months
Check out this chart showing the collapse of the ruble: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency
How hard will the riot police work, knowing they're getting paid in worthless currency? This thing could be unraveling fast for Mr. Putin.
Can we please edit the question from this...
"Will Russia invade Ukraine beyond existing occupied territory in Crimea before February 1, 2022?"
"Will Russia invade Ukraine beyond existing occupied territory in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk before February 1, 2022?"
@Joker Please read about the removal of Nikita Khrushchev. No government is a monolith. There are always different power centers in a government and society. So everyone, no matter how powerful they are, has political opponents -- and like Khrushchev if Putin's popularity falls enough, and it's perceived to be due to his policy failings, then there will be factions working behind the scenes.