Even 8% overestimates the odds of an official diagnosis: 1) Alzheimer's is multistage disease that [progresses slowly](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alzheimers-disease/in-depth/alzheimers-stages/art-20048448). 2) Even if Biden did have dementia, the best base rate is to look at what happened with other Presidents who had Alzheimer's. We know of Ronald Reagan. Aides can do [a lot](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/01/reagan-alzheimers-family-feud-lesley-stahl/) day to day to cover up for a declining President who is sometimes f...

It seems that worldwide eradication is extremely difficult and takes decades. Polio is not even eradicated yet, even though there has not been a case in the United States since 1979. Since 2000 it's been statistically zero worldwide but can still be found rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

@moderators Due to feedback from the other questions I tweaked the resolution criteria to say that entering the city should be against the consent of the Ukrainian government that exists at the time of the question's creation, i.e., the Zelensky goverment. Thank you.

@Joker It might be worth having a series of questions on terms for political settlement. I've been thinking about that. Things like:

  • If there is an agreement, will Ukraine cede Crimea?

  • whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk up to the prewar frontlines

  • whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk beyond the prewar frontlines

  • whether Ukraine cedes parts of any other oblasts

Resolves ambiguous if no agreement. Do you have any thoughts?

— edited by johnnycaffeine

@(Jgalt) important to point out that irrespective of one's personal opinions, the behavior described in that NYT article falls under the New York State definition of sexual harassment, creating a hostile work environment, as described here: https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/sexual_harrassment_brochure.pdf ...and by the way, signed into law by Andrew Cuomo: [Governor Cuomo Signs Legislation Enacting Sweeping New Workplace Harassment Protections](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-legislation-enacting-sweeping-new-workplace-harassm...

"Everything I know about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle I learned against my will." - Robert J. O'Neill

Just a lesson in forecasting I wanted to share, regarding one's inner game. It's so important to stay calm and not get carried away. Something that's happened here lately (and experienced myself a couple times firsthand recently) is resolution criteria that seem unfair. In one case I saw someone quit Metaculus forever because he thought a question had resolved unfairly. I too was guilty of letting my emotions get the best of me. It's important to remember that that's okay for things to be unfair and that the world doesn't owe it to you to be fair. It's ...
@(falconberger) I don’t know how old you are but it’s definitely difficult to trust these US/UK intelligence assessments if you came of age in the run up to the Iraq War. I’m not sure people under 30 understand that, being lied to by your own government about such an important issue. It’s hard to avoid being skeptical at this point. (“Fool me once…) Whether this skepticism rises to the level of becoming a cognitive bias, perhaps it does? On the other hand it can also avoid assigning too much weight to it so could also be an advantage in forecasting. I w...
From Google Scholar, this paper provides what is still the predominant hypothesis among epidemiologists: [Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1?fbclid=IwAR2-OB_e_eVnQOSsKMjb9Mptv-0a2RRyUy7THUXLQeoOcreAu7KffmRpNcc). Zoonotic origin is not as sexy as the lab-release story, but it'll be interesting to see how all this unfolds over the next few years. BTW, yes I agree this question should resolve ambiguous. Metaculus is not a betting site where y...

@richardson.andrew An organization's officials will always say something is "100% definitely gonna happen" until it doesn't.

@olimax Agreed. But if you had asked me a few weeks ago, I also thought it would be impossible for Putin to actually go through with this invasion, since the US agreed to not have offensive missiles in Ukraine as well as other disarmament measures, according to this. War unfortunately takes on its own momentum, and there is a lot of cloudiness going forward.

@JonathanRay I wonder whether your probability would go up a bit if you incorporated the history of Nikita Khrushchev. Please see this article for example. The first ouster attempt was in 1957 and then he was successfully removed in 1964, in a palace coup due to dissatisfaction about the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet economy, and deteriorating Soviet relations with China.

Conflict News: > BREAKING: Bellingcat claim that 3 members of the delegation attending peace talks between Ukraine and Russia earlier this month may have been poisoned by chemical weapons. One of the victims is owner of Chelsea football club, Roman Abramovich. - [via Twitter](https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/1508471554748952585?s=21) We will find out later whether this report is true or not, but this raises the question of the resolution criteria. I am assuming we are predicting battlefield use of chemical weapons and that this would exclude targe...
@(Jgalt) The fireworks from this morning were just a way to get the price down, mark my words. I held throughout the SolarCity acquisition and followed that one closely, and this is simply what Elon does in order to get a better deal. People underestimate him, but he's a ruthless dealmaker. After his initial bid on SolarCity, it was several weeks of drip, drip, drip of problems being discovered with SolarCity. Then Elon put in a lower offer, and SolarCity jumped on it right away, since Elon was always implicitly threatening to walk away, and if he did, t...
Likely won't be today. [Kharkiv Oblast weather](https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Kharkiv+Kharkiv+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=dde19125370c8722fdb322107e0624d6612e6c84de1c5b1ea5a691c12df98489): Today's high is 35° Fahrenheit vs. an average high of 27°. 34° in [Sumy Oblast](https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Sumy+Sumy+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=71204015cd719ae273c146797ab7deef11cb0140ed05eba30936efcbdbb26b6b). (Avg. high is 28°.) A high of 35° tomorrow with light snow in [Luhansk](https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Luhansk+Luhansk+Ukraine?canonicalCity...
Game 2 of the Utsunomiya Brex vs. the Kawasaki Brave Thunders about to be streamed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2laf9oZcoCM). The Brex lost yesterday, so it's a crucial game for them, hopefully you will watch. I note a couple things about Japanese basketball: 1. The sportsmanship. You see the losing team congratulating the winners, something you never see in the US. 2. At the end the teams bow to the audience. The more I learn about it, the more I am in awe of Japanese culture. It's just a nice pace of game, and the Japanese B.Le...
Lindsay Graham probably speaks for a lot of the GOP establishment here: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/533205-graham-trumps-legacy-tarnished-but-not-supportive-yet-of-25th-amendment >he added that he wasn't supportive of "at this point" of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office. Mostly likely, it's not even necessary anymore as it seems Trump has been de facto relieved of his duties, as evidenced by Mike Pence being the one to call out the National Guard, plus the fact that the Joint Chiefs of Staff are treating Pence as th...

An important question that this whole thing hinges on is:

“By the end of 2022, will Ukraine be a NATO Membership Action Plan participant?”

You can read about it here at the NATO website. Currently the only participant is Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Any interest in that being a question here for us to predict?

(Edit: we could do 2023 as well.)

— edited by johnnycaffeine

Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.

GJOpen has it at 70% that an agreement is signed or announced by December 1st: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2319-will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-announce-an-agreement-to-end-the-current-conflict-in-ukraine It's a slightly different version of the question than this one: 1) Expiration is a month earlier. 2) Their version requires a signing or mutual announcement but not that the two sides stick to it. 3) The agreement must be permanent in the GJOpen version 4) The agreement must cover all of Ukraine, while the Metaculus requirement is for the ma...