NEW: US State Department is calling US citizens here in Ukraine and telling them they should leave the country immediately. It’s not an automated message. A real person is on the line asking if people have made travel arrangements. @Kiehart just got that call here in Kyiv.
Kherson has now officially fallen, per NYT reporter: https://mobile.twitter.com/mschwirtz/status/1…
I thought it was interesting to learn that scientists still don't know the origin or natural reservoir of Ebola: Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review At best, fruit bats are still just anyone's best guess. Ebola has been around since 1976.
@jutah181 The Committee members are listed here. Every one of them has a nice tenured position, so I'm just not sure these folks care at all about outside political pressure.
I went to Google Scholar and looked up a bunch of the articles bylined by these folks that discuss recession, and the upshot is that the labor market matters a lot to them. So that's the metric I would look at rather than the politics.
It seems that worldwide eradication is extremely difficult and takes decades. Polio is not even eradicated yet, even though there has not been a case in the United States since 1979. Since 2000 it's been statistically zero worldwide but can still be found rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
@moderators Due to feedback from the other questions I tweaked the resolution criteria to say that entering the city should be against the consent of the Ukrainian government that exists at the time of the question's creation, i.e., the Zelensky goverment. Thank you.
@Joker It might be worth having a series of questions on terms for political settlement. I've been thinking about that. Things like:
If there is an agreement, will Ukraine cede Crimea?
whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk up to the prewar frontlines
whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk beyond the prewar frontlines
whether Ukraine cedes parts of any other oblasts
Resolves ambiguous if no agreement. Do you have any thoughts?
— edited by johnnycaffeine
Evan, congratulations on this new role! I’m seriously excited for your mission that you describe. Definitely those are some needed long-term improvements here and of course I look forward to forecasting and learning from many of the new questions that are coming.
Criteria for a PHEIC:
"Everything I know about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle I learned against my will." - Robert J. O'Neill
Quantifying the risk of bonds with S&P credit ratings
First Republic was downgraded this morning to BB+ from A-. According to the study from the article, over a 36-year period an A- rating implies a one-year default risk of 0.07%, while a BB+ rating implies a default risk of 0.34%.