It seems that worldwide eradication is extremely difficult and takes decades. Polio is not even eradicated yet, even though there has not been a case in the United States since 1979. Since 2000 it's been statistically zero worldwide but can still be found rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
@moderators Due to feedback from the other questions I tweaked the resolution criteria to say that entering the city should be against the consent of the Ukrainian government that exists at the time of the question's creation, i.e., the Zelensky goverment. Thank you.
@Joker It might be worth having a series of questions on terms for political settlement. I've been thinking about that. Things like:
If there is an agreement, will Ukraine cede Crimea?
whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk up to the prewar frontlines
whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk beyond the prewar frontlines
whether Ukraine cedes parts of any other oblasts
Resolves ambiguous if no agreement. Do you have any thoughts?
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"Everything I know about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle I learned against my will." - Robert J. O'Neill
@richardson.andrew An organization's officials will always say something is "100% definitely gonna happen" until it doesn't.
@olimax Agreed. But if you had asked me a few weeks ago, I also thought it would be impossible for Putin to actually go through with this invasion, since the US agreed to not have offensive missiles in Ukraine as well as other disarmament measures, according to this. War unfortunately takes on its own momentum, and there is a lot of cloudiness going forward.
@JonathanRay I wonder whether your probability would go up a bit if you incorporated the history of Nikita Khrushchev. Please see this article for example. The first ouster attempt was in 1957 and then he was successfully removed in 1964, in a palace coup due to dissatisfaction about the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet economy, and deteriorating Soviet relations with China.
An important question that this whole thing hinges on is:
“By the end of 2022, will Ukraine be a NATO Membership Action Plan participant?”
You can read about it here at the NATO website. Currently the only participant is Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Any interest in that being a question here for us to predict?
(Edit: we could do 2023 as well.)
— edited by johnnycaffeine
Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.