Financial Times: [Hedge funds bet on beaten-down Russia and Ukraine assets]( >“The narrative is alarming. And investors are not prepared to take a high profile political risk,” said Joseph Mouawad, emerging market bond fund manager at Carmignac. >Some hedge funds, however, are diving in to the market in search of bargains, arguing that while Russia president Vladimir Putin is unlikely to back down soon, he will not want to risk a significant conflict. >“We’re quite confident there will be no war,” said...


NEW: US State Department is calling US citizens here in Ukraine and telling them they should leave the country immediately. It’s not an automated message. A real person is on the line asking if people have made travel arrangements. @Kiehart just got that call here in Kyiv.


@(bte) “ Taiwan is IMPENETRABLE” — yes exactly. Not even one percent of the people here will actually do this, but the most instructive thing you can ever do for that situation is to put yourself in the shoes of a Chinese military planner and actually look at the coast of Taiwan. You can go on Google maps and zoom in really close with satellite view. Answer the question, “ if I were planning this invasion, where exactly would I land my troops?“ Taiwan’s coast is an absolute nightmare of urban warfare or impenetrable cliffs. Not many exceptions to that, ...
Just a lesson in forecasting I wanted to share, regarding one's inner game. It's so important to stay calm and not get carried away. Something that's happened here lately (and experienced myself a couple times firsthand recently) is resolution criteria that seem unfair. In one case I saw someone quit Metaculus forever because he thought a question had resolved unfairly. I too was guilty of letting my emotions get the best of me. It's important to remember that that's okay for things to be unfair and that the world doesn't owe it to you to be fair. It's ...
I’m sorry but this is not 41%. I read through the arguments here for Yes and so I guess 10% is fair. But I think it’s important from a forecasting standpoint to look at this from a historical perspective and understand that none of this is new. Some of you may be very young and therefore not aware that there was a direct presidential relative in the recent past who was also into drinking, drugging and whoring: [Roger Clinton](
In light of the 3 conditional minimum wage questions here, I thought quicker-resolving questions could come from the experimental laboratory of Florida, which is the lowest cost of living state to [raise its minimum wage to $15]( Currently the schedule is: $8.65 per hour today $10.00 on September 30, 2021 $11.00 on September 30, 2022 $12.00 on September 30, 2023 $13.00 on September 30, 2024 $14.00 on September 30, 2025 $15.00 on September 30, 2026 The disastro...

I thought it was interesting to learn that scientists still don't know the origin or natural reservoir of Ebola: Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review At best, fruit bats are still just anyone's best guess. Ebola has been around since 1976.

Even 8% overestimates the odds of an official diagnosis: 1) Alzheimer's is multistage disease that [progresses slowly]( 2) Even if Biden did have dementia, the best base rate is to look at what happened with other Presidents who had Alzheimer's. We know of Ronald Reagan. Aides can do [a lot]( day to day to cover up for a declining President who is sometimes f...

@jutah181 The Committee members are listed here. Every one of them has a nice tenured position, so I'm just not sure these folks care at all about outside political pressure.

I went to Google Scholar and looked up a bunch of the articles bylined by these folks that discuss recession, and the upshot is that the labor market matters a lot to them. So that's the metric I would look at rather than the politics.

It seems that worldwide eradication is extremely difficult and takes decades. Polio is not even eradicated yet, even though there has not been a case in the United States since 1979. Since 2000 it's been statistically zero worldwide but can still be found rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

@moderators Due to feedback from the other questions I tweaked the resolution criteria to say that entering the city should be against the consent of the Ukrainian government that exists at the time of the question's creation, i.e., the Zelensky goverment. Thank you.

@Joker It might be worth having a series of questions on terms for political settlement. I've been thinking about that. Things like:

  • If there is an agreement, will Ukraine cede Crimea?

  • whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk up to the prewar frontlines

  • whether Ukraine cedes Luhansk and Donetsk beyond the prewar frontlines

  • whether Ukraine cedes parts of any other oblasts

Resolves ambiguous if no agreement. Do you have any thoughts?

— edited by johnnycaffeine

Evan, congratulations on this new role! I’m seriously excited for your mission that you describe. Definitely those are some needed long-term improvements here and of course I look forward to forecasting and learning from many of the new questions that are coming.

@(Jgalt) important to point out that irrespective of one's personal opinions, the behavior described in that NYT article falls under the New York State definition of sexual harassment, creating a hostile work environment, as described here: ...and by the way, signed into law by Andrew Cuomo: [Governor Cuomo Signs Legislation Enacting Sweeping New Workplace Harassment Protections](

Criteria for a PHEIC:

  • Is the public health impact of the event serious?
  • Is the event unusual or unexpected?
  • Is there a significant risk of international spread?
  • Is there a significant risk of international travel or trade restrictions?


Still working on the wording, but I am thinking of creating a new question more narrowly-focused than this one: By 31 December 2022, Will a NATO member state accuse the Russian military of firing a shell or dropping a bomb containing a chemical weapon in Ukraine? Shorter title: Will Russia use chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine? Resolution criteria will specify that the chemical must be delivered via an artillery shell or bomb. It will list nerve agents, choking agents, blood agents, and blistering agents. Riot control agents such as tear...
As I see it, even if you get a couple red wave elections these are the three main obstacles to getting a Mississippi-like law passed on the national level this decade, which are pretty difficult to overcome: 1) The US Senate -- not only the filibuster, but also the fact that the rules of the Senate give individual Senators a lot of power to block things from ever reaching the floor. There are two GOP Senators who are unabashedly pro-choice (Collins and Murkowski), and at least two more who have been pro-choice in the past, campaigned recently on pro-lif...

"Everything I know about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle I learned against my will." - Robert J. O'Neill

Quantifying the risk of bonds with S&P credit ratings

First Republic was downgraded this morning to BB+ from A-. According to the study from the article, over a 36-year period an A- rating implies a one-year default risk of 0.07%, while a BB+ rating implies a default risk of 0.34%.