Just wanted to throw a question out there for the community. Now that we’re seeing the whole world have hindsight bias and laugh at Joe Biden‘s prediction on July 6, I was just wondering, who here thought it was obvious in advance that the Taliban would win this quickly? I will admit that I got it wrong. I thought they would win but I didn’t know it would be nearly this quickly.
I go through and look at the early predictions from here and GJOpen. I am not seeing anybody who thought it was obvious in advance. In mid July, GJO had it at 2% that the US E...
Once someone has achieved a certain "power and insights" level, allow them to gain 1 tachyon each time they post their prediction as a comment? I notice how valuable it is when I see someone do that, and offering that incentive could be a way to encourage it.
I'd love to see a discussion going. So I'll start the bidding at 90%, for the following reasons:
1) The base rate. Of the 44 individuals who have preceded Biden as POTUS, 86% ran for reelection.
2) Actuarial tables. Biden has [plenty of life expectancy](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) remaining, and unlike the average 78 year-old American man, he has access to his own suite at Walter Reed, along with a dedicated team of doctors.
3) By all accounts, his managerial style is a delegator who sketches broad strokes and is content to sit back...
In light of the 3 conditional minimum wage questions here, I thought quicker-resolving questions could come from the experimental laboratory of Florida, which is the lowest cost of living state to [raise its minimum wage to $15](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=84a53659-4e9c-4994-bae0-2bb2369180a2).
Currently the schedule is:
$8.65 per hour today
$10.00 on September 30, 2021
$11.00 on September 30, 2022
$12.00 on September 30, 2023
$13.00 on September 30, 2024
$14.00 on September 30, 2025
$15.00 on September 30, 2026
It seems that worldwide eradication is extremely difficult and takes decades. Polio is not even eradicated yet, even though there has not been a case in the United States since 1979. Since 2000 it's been statistically zero worldwide but can still be found rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
@(Jgalt) important to point out that irrespective of one's personal opinions, the behavior described in that NYT article falls under the New York State definition of sexual harassment, creating a hostile work environment, as described here:
...and by the way, signed into law by Andrew Cuomo: [Governor Cuomo Signs Legislation Enacting Sweeping New Workplace Harassment Protections](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-legislation-enacting-sweeping-new-workplace-harassm...
From Google Scholar, this paper provides what is still the predominant hypothesis among epidemiologists: [Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1?fbclid=IwAR2-OB_e_eVnQOSsKMjb9Mptv-0a2RRyUy7THUXLQeoOcreAu7KffmRpNcc).
Zoonotic origin is not as sexy as the lab-release story, but it'll be interesting to see how all this unfolds over the next few years.
BTW, yes I agree this question should resolve ambiguous. Metaculus is not a betting site where y...
Even 8% overestimates the odds of an official diagnosis:
1) Alzheimer's is multistage disease that [progresses slowly](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alzheimers-disease/in-depth/alzheimers-stages/art-20048448).
2) Even if Biden did have dementia, the best base rate is to look at what happened with other Presidents who had Alzheimer's. We know of Ronald Reagan. Aides can do [a lot](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/01/reagan-alzheimers-family-feud-lesley-stahl/) day to day to cover up for a declining President who is sometimes f...
Game 2 of the Utsunomiya Brex vs. the Kawasaki Brave Thunders about to be streamed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2laf9oZcoCM). The Brex lost yesterday, so it's a crucial game for them, hopefully you will watch. I note a couple things about Japanese basketball:
1. The sportsmanship. You see the losing team congratulating the winners, something you never see in the US.
2. At the end the teams bow to the audience. The more I learn about it, the more I am in awe of Japanese culture.
It's just a nice pace of game, and the Japanese B.Le...
Lindsay Graham probably speaks for a lot of the GOP establishment here: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/533205-graham-trumps-legacy-tarnished-but-not-supportive-yet-of-25th-amendment
>he added that he wasn't supportive of "at this point" of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office.
Mostly likely, it's not even necessary anymore as it seems Trump has been de facto relieved of his duties, as evidenced by Mike Pence being the one to call out the National Guard, plus the fact that the Joint Chiefs of Staff are treating Pence as th...
Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.
I would hope he could make that particular blog post free to read, because there is not a way to read his reasoning on these predictions without paying. Otherwise these questions are basically free advertisements for his site?
@(Jgalt) a factor that is important in politics is earned media. Just make sure they [spell your name right](https://www.nku.edu/~turney/prclass/readings/3eras1x.html). I counted 11 big news stories for Yang generated just on this bodega thing in the past 24 hours (let alone any other issue!), most of it from local NY media. By contrast I could only find one story each for Scott Stringer and Eric Adams focused on them. If this continues, it means Yang is sucking up all of the [earned media oxygen](https://www.thestreet.com/politics/donald-trump-rode-5-bi...
Andrew Yang holds "commanding lead" in [new poll](https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-andrew-yang-mayors-race-poll-stringer-adams-wiley-garcia-donovan-20210210-s7we2lawyrcifhaegh4xszqvfa-story.html), 28% for Yang vs. 17% for Adams and 13% for Stringer. Personally, I think it's still early to read too much into this poll, but make of it what you will.
Also, wanted to recommend a good [Old Bull podcast episode](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL29sZGJ1bGwvZmVlZC54bWw/episode/b2xkYnVsb...