@(Wackus) The question is fine. I noticed you’re new here and so you may not realize that on the eve of the invasion five of those six cities had questions about whether Russian troops would enter. Also important is the fact that the question was created right after Russia invaded, so it was not known how things would unfold.
I also should point out that as someone who has actually created questions here, I know firsthand that it’s difficult to get the wording right. Hopefully if you ever decide to create a question here yourself and not just be a crit...
Just wanted to throw a question out there for the community. Now that we’re seeing the whole world have hindsight bias and laugh at Joe Biden‘s prediction on July 6, I was just wondering, who here thought it was obvious in advance that the Taliban would win this quickly? I will admit that I got it wrong. I thought they would win but I didn’t know it would be nearly this quickly.
I go through and look at the early predictions from here and GJOpen. I am not seeing anybody who thought it was obvious in advance. In mid July, GJO had it at 2% that the US E...
I am at 7% on this city, which has been bypassed and is in a shelling/stalemate situation as Russians focus elsewhere. There are only 70 days until June 1st. I'll post some of my reasoning, so feel free to disagree.
First of all it is very hard to surround a massive city like this. Google Maps has a distance feature, and you can see for yourself that cutting off communication would require making an airtight perimeter of over 80 km (50 miles), and the Russians aren't even close to having achieved that very first step.
Secondly I want to discuss someth...
Once someone has achieved a certain "power and insights" level, allow them to gain 1 tachyon each time they post their prediction as a comment? I notice how valuable it is when I see someone do that, and offering that incentive could be a way to encourage it.
With community odds now at 38%, I think I may go ahead and create a question about whether Russian troops enter Kiev by the end of the year. If we think the invasion has a significant chance of happening, a question like that would be important it would be useful to then see what kind of incursion it would be.
@(BrunoYammine) My contrary view is that it's 65%, actually now 70%, because it's become a self-reinforcing cycle. This is happening for the following reasons:
1) Because this has become a popular question
2) Everyone is a news junkie reading the same stuff pumped out by the mainstream Western media
3) There's become a Twitter competition to post every purported satellite image and video of the invasion Totally About To Happen.
4) People see that most everyone else else is predicting invasion, so now due to the popularity of this question, we get gr...
@(Jgalt) The filing is [here](https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/zdvxogenypx/050622%20--%20Del%20Ch%20--%20Orlando%20Police%20Pension%20Fund%20v%20Twitter%20Inc%20et%20al%20complaint.pdf). Skimmed through it, looks to me like it's just lawyers getting paid, same as with any of these zillion other shareholder lawsuits that get filed whenever there's any sort of corporate action.
A few things that jump out at me:
1) They consider Morgan Stanley to be affiliated with Elon, due to an investment fund holding Tesla shares, among other things. L...
@(jowo) This would be a good question to investigate. You can do a Google search using custom range for date. When did the Russian build up begin? When did the "shouting" begin?
I don't have much time myself for a proper study at the moment, but doing a quick search I found the latest round of build up started being reported in March: https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+troop+buildup+ukraine+before%3A2021-03-31
Stories about a possible Russian invasion came after that: https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+invade+ukraine+before%3A2021-04-30
The crowd odds here are 95%. I'm curious about this discrepancy vs. the stock market. The stock price for TWTR just hit $49.00. This means an annualized return of around 30% if the deal goes closes in a few months, just from buying the common stock. I am curious who is right, us or the stock market.
[AP: Looking for evidence? Trust us, Biden administration says](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-russia-ukraine-health-europe-national-security-5c4182d83dd8b7585ac49fdbb5f91c45)
> WASHINGTON (AP) — When President Biden’s administration was asked for evidence to back up dramatic claims about national security developments this past week, it demurred with a simple rejoinder: You’ll have to trust us on that.
>No, they would not reveal what led them to say they knew that Russia was plotting a false flag operation as a pretext to invade Ukrai...
I'd love to see a discussion going. So I'll start the bidding at 90%, for the following reasons:
1) The base rate. Of the 44 individuals who have preceded Biden as POTUS, 86% ran for reelection.
2) Actuarial tables. Biden has [plenty of life expectancy](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) remaining, and unlike the average 78 year-old American man, he has access to his own suite at Walter Reed, along with a dedicated team of doctors.
3) By all accounts, his managerial style is a delegator who sketches broad strokes and is content to sit back...
Financial Times: [Hedge funds bet on beaten-down Russia and Ukraine assets](https://archive.fo/s8dxF#selection-1517.0-1517.56)
>“The narrative is alarming. And investors are not prepared to take a high profile political risk,” said Joseph Mouawad, emerging market bond fund manager at Carmignac.
>Some hedge funds, however, are diving in to the market in search of bargains, arguing that while Russia president Vladimir Putin is unlikely to back down soon, he will not want to risk a significant conflict.
>“We’re quite confident there will be no war,” said...
NEW: US State Department is calling US citizens here in Ukraine and telling them they should leave the country immediately. It’s not an automated message. A real person is on the line asking if people have made travel arrangements. @Kiehart just got that call here in Kyiv.
@(bte) “ Taiwan is IMPENETRABLE” — yes exactly. Not even one percent of the people here will actually do this, but the most instructive thing you can ever do for that situation is to put yourself in the shoes of a Chinese military planner and actually look at the coast of Taiwan. You can go on Google maps and zoom in really close with satellite view. Answer the question, “ if I were planning this invasion, where exactly would I land my troops?“ Taiwan’s coast is an absolute nightmare of urban warfare or impenetrable cliffs. Not many exceptions to that, ...
Just a lesson in forecasting I wanted to share, regarding one's inner game. It's so important to stay calm and not get carried away. Something that's happened here lately (and experienced myself a couple times firsthand recently) is resolution criteria that seem unfair. In one case I saw someone quit Metaculus forever because he thought a question had resolved unfairly. I too was guilty of letting my emotions get the best of me.
It's important to remember that that's okay for things to be unfair and that the world doesn't owe it to you to be fair. It's ...