Once someone has achieved a certain "power and insights" level, allow them to gain 1 tachyon each time they post their prediction as a comment? I notice how valuable it is when I see someone do that, and offering that incentive could be a way to encourage it.
I'd love to see a discussion going. So I'll start the bidding at 90%, for the following reasons:
1) The base rate. Of the 44 individuals who have preceded Biden as POTUS, 86% ran for reelection.
2) Actuarial tables. Biden has [plenty of life expectancy](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) remaining, and unlike the average 78 year-old American man, he has access to his own suite at Walter Reed, along with a dedicated team of doctors.
3) By all accounts, his managerial style is a delegator who sketches broad strokes and is content to sit back...
In light of the 3 conditional minimum wage questions here, I thought quicker-resolving questions could come from the experimental laboratory of Florida, which is the lowest cost of living state to [raise its minimum wage to $15](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=84a53659-4e9c-4994-bae0-2bb2369180a2).
Currently the schedule is:
$8.65 per hour today
$10.00 on September 30, 2021
$11.00 on September 30, 2022
$12.00 on September 30, 2023
$13.00 on September 30, 2024
$14.00 on September 30, 2025
$15.00 on September 30, 2026
@(Jgalt) important to point out that irrespective of one's personal opinions, the behavior described in that NYT article falls under the New York State definition of sexual harassment, creating a hostile work environment, as described here:
...and by the way, signed into law by Andrew Cuomo: [Governor Cuomo Signs Legislation Enacting Sweeping New Workplace Harassment Protections](https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-legislation-enacting-sweeping-new-workplace-harassm...
From Google Scholar, this paper provides what is still the predominant hypothesis among epidemiologists: [Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1?fbclid=IwAR2-OB_e_eVnQOSsKMjb9Mptv-0a2RRyUy7THUXLQeoOcreAu7KffmRpNcc).
Zoonotic origin is not as sexy as the lab-release story, but it'll be interesting to see how all this unfolds over the next few years.
BTW, yes I agree this question should resolve ambiguous. Metaculus is not a betting site where y...
Even 8% overestimates the odds of an official diagnosis:
1) Alzheimer's is multistage disease that [progresses slowly](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alzheimers-disease/in-depth/alzheimers-stages/art-20048448).
2) Even if Biden did have dementia, the best base rate is to look at what happened with other Presidents who had Alzheimer's. We know of Ronald Reagan. Aides can do [a lot](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/01/reagan-alzheimers-family-feud-lesley-stahl/) day to day to cover up for a declining President who is sometimes f...
Game 2 of the Utsunomiya Brex vs. the Kawasaki Brave Thunders about to be streamed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2laf9oZcoCM). The Brex lost yesterday, so it's a crucial game for them, hopefully you will watch. I note a couple things about Japanese basketball:
1. The sportsmanship. You see the losing team congratulating the winners, something you never see in the US.
2. At the end the teams bow to the audience. The more I learn about it, the more I am in awe of Japanese culture.
It's just a nice pace of game, and the Japanese B.Le...
Lindsay Graham probably speaks for a lot of the GOP establishment here: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/533205-graham-trumps-legacy-tarnished-but-not-supportive-yet-of-25th-amendment
>he added that he wasn't supportive of "at this point" of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office.
Mostly likely, it's not even necessary anymore as it seems Trump has been de facto relieved of his duties, as evidenced by Mike Pence being the one to call out the National Guard, plus the fact that the Joint Chiefs of Staff are treating Pence as th...
Only 5 days left. I think the community's odds of 44% are overstated because the problem from Trump's perspective is that he wouldn't want to publicly admit guilt for anything, because that could open him up to other issues, such as conviction by the Senate, being barred from running in 2024, etc. Therefore I think it's more likely that if he did do a pardon, it would be a secret pardon as discussed on page 2 of this Presidential Pardons FAQ. A secret pardon would resolve this question as no.
I would hope he could make that particular blog post free to read, because there is not a way to read his reasoning on these predictions without paying. Otherwise these questions are basically free advertisements for his site?
@(Jgalt) a factor that is important in politics is earned media. Just make sure they [spell your name right](https://www.nku.edu/~turney/prclass/readings/3eras1x.html). I counted 11 big news stories for Yang generated just on this bodega thing in the past 24 hours (let alone any other issue!), most of it from local NY media. By contrast I could only find one story each for Scott Stringer and Eric Adams focused on them. If this continues, it means Yang is sucking up all of the [earned media oxygen](https://www.thestreet.com/politics/donald-trump-rode-5-bi...
Andrew Yang holds "commanding lead" in [new poll](https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-andrew-yang-mayors-race-poll-stringer-adams-wiley-garcia-donovan-20210210-s7we2lawyrcifhaegh4xszqvfa-story.html), 28% for Yang vs. 17% for Adams and 13% for Stringer. Personally, I think it's still early to read too much into this poll, but make of it what you will.
Also, wanted to recommend a good [Old Bull podcast episode](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL29sZGJ1bGwvZmVlZC54bWw/episode/b2xkYnVsb...
@(PeterHurford) I am sorry for messing up your research, but I am happy with this not being simply a non-monetary clone of betting sites and will explain why.
A well-functioning prediction market question has people doing their own research and sharing it with one another but not to the point where they start to herd into groupthink. The comments and collective forecast odds here have been outstanding, and I am happy to see what the community here has done. By contrast I look at the Netanyahu question for example, and it got wrecked once people knew th...
1) “We live in a two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan. And so, like, can you imagine trying to have two kids on virtual school in a two-bedroom apartment, and then trying to do work yourself?” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/nyregion/a…