The gap continues to close, average is now at McAuliffe +1.7 per 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/go….
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Ideal light conditions for nighttime military operations are between Feb 16 and Feb 23: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1492969666…
Non-essential EU staff leaving Ukraine. All Norwegians told to leave Ukraine. Israeli diplomatic families leaving. We're getting closer.
I said on the related question I didn't think this was all that likely, but my best guess if it was to happen is early April because I figure by then the Russian army might be able to throw together an actual offensive against Kiev or to encircle the Donbas.
@haukurth Maybe? Even if that's not the narrative that emerges, there's already been an increase in artillery exchanges along the front.
Fetterman has agreed to one debate with Oz, no date given. Surely helps Oz's chances, no? https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/07/fett…
If the GOP nominates Cox, it's a guaranteed Democratic victory. Schulz is very Hogan-esque but it isn't clear to me yet that she will be capable of mobilizing the support of moderate Democrats like Hogan was able to. A left wing Democratic nominee will help Schulz, but if it ends up being Schulz v Franchot I think she loses.
Given that as of today, two Russian generals have been killed in action, a good question might be "How many general officers of the Russian Armed Forces will be killed over the duration of the conflict?"
I don't think Russia needs to project power throughout the entirety of Ukraine to "win", just seize everything east of the Dnieper. Crush the bulk of the Ukrainian army east of the river and decimate the Ukrainian air force and Ukraine probably ends up suing for peace. Annexation of Crimea is recognized and Donetsk and Luhansk are either declared independent or also annexed into Russia. Regions other than Donetsk and Luhansk with a nontrivial share of ethnic Russians are probably not that difficult to occupy.
@alwaysrinse I said 75% but if there is a battle for Kandahar and it goes poorly for the Taliban I think I might shift down by a significant degree.
@Gaia thanks! Submitted updated language.
Anecdotal, but I've repeatedly heard from Nigerians that the existing population estimate is too high, especially in northern Nigeria. Something to keep in mind the next time actual numbers are put together, there could possibly be a downward shift in the trajectory. That being said, this probably will not happen the next time there is a Nigerian census, for political reasons.
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