US State Department just issued a Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine in response to potential Russian military action. Apparently when this was done for Azerbaijan in 2020, the war with Armenia broke out two days later.…

An organized mass evacuation of women, children, and the elderly from the Donbas is underway, according to DPR leader:…

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Russia is in the process of reducing embassy staff in Ukraine:….

I'm up to 80% now. That the community is still at 45% is quite surprising. What's going on here? Lots of initial interest in the question with little follow up over the past ~2 weeks?

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Former Finnish PM Stubb: "The train has left the station. Finland is moving toward full NATO membership. It's not gonna happen today, it's not gonna happen next week, but it will eventually happen." (…)

Still unclear of course what a timeline will look like and if it can happen by 2024.

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Might be too close/certain to happening already, but if not, a question on Russian bonds defaulting would be good.

Reuters reporting Fitch downgrades Russia and says default is imminent:…

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Updated down to 5% because of the recent election results, I think it is very unlikely that the ZEDEs survive the new government.

@johnnycaffeine this would definitely be interesting! I would guess that the community thinks this is somewhat unlikely even if they do think an invasion is likely

80% seems way too high for 100,000 dead. If Russia is at 43,000 killed in 414 days of fighting, that's 103 killed per day. 261 days left in 2023, at 103 killed per day, gets you to 70,000. Either the daily rate will need to increase quite a bit, or the Russian army needs to undergo an absolute disaster or two.

China refusing to supply Russian airlines with parts after Boeing and Airbus pull out:…

There are well documented barriers to interstate mobility (i.e. restrictions on new housing development, occupational licensure, etc) which already limit how much Americans tend to move between states. Given the FSP's lackluster results over 20 years, the ability of groups to successfully coordinate such action, especially within the time constraint of the question, seems very unlikely.

Updating down to 10% based on Russian complications and the Iranian missile strike on the US base in Erbil. Even lower is probably in order but will see how the news on the strike develops.

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Russian landing ships currently heading through the English Channel, presumably en route to the Black Sea:…

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@johnnycaffeine It probably hurts McAuliffe although I would guess the effect size is small. I live in the DC area and nearly all of the Youngkin ads are about education, his campaign seems to think that's a winning issue. They certainly learned their lesson from the Ed Gillespie disaster in 2017 and aren't going full Trumpian culture war in their messaging.

An interactive map of government/Taliban/contested district control is available here: The speed of the Taliban gains since the US withdrawal was announced is shockingly fast. There are obviously huge differences between the Vietnam war and this case, but South Vietnam held for just over two years after the withdrawal of American forces. ARVN was clearly a more competent and capable military than the Afghan Army is now, *and* had to fight against both regular NVA troops and Viet Con...

@fewerlacunae Field hospitals could plausibly be part of an exercise or a bluff but I have a hard time believing the actual blood supplies are.


  1. That's a good point, worth rewording to incorporate.

  2. Sure, why not so long as it's a physical place?

  3. Residing in the city for at least 183 days per year seems like fair criteria for "full-time."

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