Interviewer: Have you heard from the NYT since the conversation with [reporter] Cade [Metz] described in the farewell post?

Scott: No, but I know Cade is still interviewing people for the article, which I take to mean he’s still expecting to publish it.

https://www.coindesk.com/i-failed-terribly-at…

@Jgalt wrote:

@trevorandersen wrote:

Betfair price implies ~6%.

Not looking great so far for Senator Warren, but of course Trump initially had far worse odds than that...

This line of reasoning seems bad: "Previously a ~6% event happened, thus future ~6% events are more likely than 6% to happen." (unless you want to make an argument about systemic biases in the PredictIt price, which seem way less plausible than the price being driven down by substantial uncertainty due to the long timeline left + a large number of possible contenders.)

@(Jgalt) wrote: > @(jacobklagerros) wrote: > > @(Jgalt) wrote: > > > @(trevorandersen) wrote: > > > > Betfair price implies ~6%. > > > > > > Not looking great so far for Senator Warren, but of course Trump initially had far worse odds than that... > > > > This line of reasoning seems bad: "Previously a ~6% event happened, thus future ~6% events are more likely than 6% to happen." (unless you want to make an argument about systemic biases in the PredictIt price, which seem way less plausible than the price being driven down by substantial uncertainty du...

Out of all the previous cases that have had >=41 deaths (current death toll), 70% have also had >=100 deaths: http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/deta…

I'm adjusting that upwards to 80% since the fact that the outbreak happens in a war-zone seems rare (this wasn't the case for previous 9 cases in DRC). https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05921-4

@(Jotto) Here are the graphs! Added using: <pre> ![](link to image source) </pre> ![](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRu9OObHBKheMtaHetZIfzN6YTh3ZSyRbn0GTuly0gI1Mci4lD7566OYH_TRIJjMagYJJ4GiF131cHl/pubchart?oid=1641590180&format=image) ![](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRDszOLEJkLANyuiy_VYMr2bAqKx5UzMY0wUEg83RGQ0QIYgFHJBjmJ2CrvnSyUoS2-jGQE6H5HpaZW/pubchart?oid=444093698&format=image) ![](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTcCRNuiOd-03gJzHmfZPeRf3NeC3V-oVrFzE9HdLj2Ev2KNwBS23QZoXnLffGDxAzSWqzuSkbmQmE4/p...

Bezos says the decision will be announced "before the end of the year" (but not as his next public appearence September 20). https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/13/jeff-bezos-sp…

There’s lots of uncertainty here, and I updated from [the workshop](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gnYXA0GIAE4s2QJPBvcpa3leuuNa56nGYjde9FYhl1E/edit?usp=sharing) that this question might condition on quite a weird world (because it assumes there *will* be a $10T company). * An effect observed when Amazon enters industries is that it has a deflationary pressure due to economies-of-scope. It draws upon its advantages in other domains to push prizes really low, which makes the pie smaller overall, but Amazon manages to capture a disproportionate chunk...
Here's one way of estimating this: if we assume the event has been as likely for the past _n_ months as it currently is, yet has not happened, what monthly baserate would we need to assign it, to be less surprised than not by this state of affairs? We can get a handle on _n_ from the Wikipedia page on QAnon's history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon#History. There is no clear candidate, but I'll somewhat conservatively choose March 14, the time of the first Reddit ban, or about 5.5 months ago (Trump, Sean Hannity and Alex Jones had all shared QAnon-...

I compiled some data on gender and past winners: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TDpS3…

I didn't learn much, apart from there being a sudden shift from no solo female winners, to three in a row since 2015. Since this time there's also been a notable increase in the proportion of female nominees.

@(Jotto999) wrote: > @(jacobklagerros) wrote: > > I compiled some data on gender and past winners: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TDpS3BgLCjqbYwZ8vzoGIXLoRAwP4WPf8Q3Lj0OwPaE/edit?usp=sharing > > > > I didn't learn much, apart from there being a sudden shift from no solo female winners, to three in a row since 2015. Since this time there's also been a notable increase in the proportion of female nominees. > > Excellent stuff. I'm updating slightly upward on this; females won the previous three despite having more male nominees, whereas now it'...