3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions.

Seems like this could easily happen in a healthy bank, or in a bank that has a troubled division but is overall stable and not in danger of failure. Example: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/wells-fargo-s…

The close dates for this set of questions are set for the end of April, but should be the end of March since the question asks about April 1.

— edited by jack

Other forecasts for comparison:

• Polymarket
• Manifold

both at ~17% (edit: note that they have different resolution criteria)

China scheduled military exercises near Taiwan immediately after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. News reports say that the number of aircraft entering the ADIZ in the last few days after Pelosi's visit were 21 Tuesday, 27 Wednesday, 49 Thursday. (The MDN website appears to be down for me.) https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/asia/china-taiwan-pelosi-japan-tensions-intl-hnk/index.html > In all, 49 planes entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ), Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said in a statement. The ministry had previously suggested 68 aircraft f...

I also used basically this approach but with a small downward adjustment for expense ratio and dividends, because that question asks for returns including dividends, while this question just asks for price.

— edited by jack

Median estimated returns (for S&P 500): 5.67% Expense ratio: currently 0.46%, but average ETF expense ratios have decreasing pretty quickly, I'll call it 0.4% Avg distributions over last 12 months: 0.32%

So median estimated annual price growth: 5.67% - 0.4% - 0.32% = 4.95%.

I expect the variance here to be larger than for the S&P 500 because of the lower diversification.

With the best results already substantially exceeding human performance, progress and interest in this particular dataset may slow down, but there are still quite a few new results pushing the top of the leaderboard.

Based on the info from other commenters e.g. at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/ about where the data comes from, I think my forecast here is mostly about when the surveys will be updated and how people will respond to them, not really about the actual degree of automation. As automation increases, there will be some perception of increased job automation, but also workers will get more used to existing automations and think of them less as "automation" - we don't think of writing an email or swiping a cre...

[Copied this comment from my reply on your EA forums post] Thanks for the post, great analysis! > I'd be interested to see more on how accuracy on Manifold changes with the number of traders and overall trading volume. In my anecdotal experience, Manifold accuracy improves a lot with more trading, just as you'd expect. Some of the markets in this dataset probably only ever got single-digit number of trades and were obviously mispriced (with nobody seeing them to correct the mispricing). I occasionally see this happen on Metaculus too, but much less of...

@randallburns I've been working on this! I did an analysis of the 2022 elections https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-ele… and I'm working on extending this https://manifund.org/projects/comparing-forec…

@(PhilippSchoenegger) Agreed, this seems tricky. What sorts of examples are there of partial acquisitions that rescue a collapsing bank? Maybe the size of the acquisition must be above some threshold, e.g. 50% of the bank's market cap (this would require care to figure out the right criteria). But I'd be worried about acquisitions that remove a large portion of both the bank's assets and liabilities with a net value that's relatively small. Or I wonder if it would be better to remote that partial acquisition criteria entirely (trades off some risk of fal...

Scott posted a clarification here that says it is the number of cases in 2023, i.e. (2)

You mean happening in 2023 right? Not if the total number will reach 25 million in 2023.

Yes.