The fraction is already less than 75% now. - Dec 31 2021: 49,751,402 - Feb 28 2022: 71,701,306 - Jun 30 2022 (most recent data): 79,019,018 So there were 21,949,904 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), and there have already been 29,267,616 cases between 1/1/22 and today. The fraction between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 has just fallen below 75% and will continue to drop. So Holden wins (YES resolution) except in the unlikely event that one of the following clauses changes the outcome: - "Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we'...

@Doryphore The financial markets are already making predictions of a similar nature, and they definitely are at least somewhat self-fulfilling, and in a much more direct way (stock price dropping = lower capital ratios = less healthy bank). So I think Metaculus's impact is negligible in comparison.

Can we get some clarification on what counts as test vs non-test? Here are some potential questions, based on questions raised by [forecasters elsewhere](https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5): - If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon within their own borders as a demonstration detonation, with the explicit intent of intimidation, is that a test or no? (Probably a test in my mind) - What if it's detonated in international waters, causing no damage (and still intended as a demonstration/intimidation)? - What ...

The fine print cover this scenario very well - "Spirit of Ukraine" is an "entity", and up to 4 entities including Zelensky are allowed for positive resolution. Congrats to Metaculus for writing good resolution criteria. Polymarket did not do so well: https://polymarket.com/market/will-volodymyr-… - their fine print says it resolves yes if Zelensky is "exclusively" named Person of the Year so it looks like it's going to resolve no.

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I could find only scant details on the experimental disconnection (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50902496) but it appears that it did not actually disrupt user internet access. From my reading it seems that the intent was: - ensure Russian websites can continue to operate without relying on global internet infrastructure - make it easier to control traffic moving between Russia and the global internet (like China's Great Firewall) If that's all that happens, I'm pretty sure that does not qualify as a YES for this question, as Russian users would ...

@(PeterWildeford) Based on this part of the resolution criteria, I interpret that the question must be about the number of casualties in 2023. > If there is no easy way to determine which Ukraine casualties happened in 2022 vs. 2023, the current total of 225,216 will be subtracted from the best available end-of-2023 number. The casualty numbers for other wars will be calculated in a method as similar to this as possible That also answers the rest of the questions you asked, because past wars that already ended have 0 casualties in 2023, and other ongoi...

Population by age group: https://censusreporter.org/profiles/04000US51…

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64094261 reports 73 aircraft entering the ADIZ of which 43 crossed median line. Only those crossing the median line count here (i.e. 43). Predictors should be careful about the median line distinction, I see it often missing in news reports.

I tried to predict this by looking at the shape of the Delta surge in different countries, and then thinking about what may be different with Omicron. Looking back now at the shape of the Delta surge in different countries (e.g. on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases), I see two typical shapes: - In some countries, like India, Germany, France, and Canada: Delta peaks in about 2 months, then drops back down over the next 2-3 months to much lower than the peak and not much higher than before Delta. - In other countries, like the US, UK, Brazil, Russia...

I collected some historical data from web archives of the Videocard benchmarks site: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14nxsO6358X08oZv2fO37x9X261AuUdGwHhCUE1elk4c/edit The price performance trend is very non-smooth, seems that prices fluctuate quite a lot, and there isn't much of a consistent upward trend over short timescales, especially over the last few years. Over the last 10 years, price performance had 13% average annual growth. *— edited by jack* This comment was moved from *What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of...

Collected some historical data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14nxsO…

Extrapolating from the annual growth over last 10 years which was about 13%.

This comment was moved from What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? to this question group. Learn more about Question groups

The nyt link has a typo, correct link is https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/technology…

Blocking big internet services is a very very long way from "completely severing Internet communication" imo. That tweet is interesting, any translation? Everything I found on this was unverified, but suggests that it's focused on government websites and protecting them from cyberattacks.

The resolution criteria could use some clarification. The only example I can think of that seems like it would meet these criteria is North Korea. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_North_Korea > Online services for most individuals and institutions are provided through a free domestic-only network known as Kwangmyong, with access to the global Internet limited to a much smaller group. Another article: https://www.vox.com/2014/12/22/7435625/north-korea-internet So that appears to qualify as "two separate internets" for the general populati...

A dashboard with vaccination rates by demographic appears at https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covi…

Current ratio is 16665/23793=.7

It would be great if this was a genius troll by Scott since the topic immediately afterwards is Mantic Markets which tries to address the problem of weird edge cases in resolution criteria just like this one.

Edit: Ah, I just saw your last comment that Scott says so. Perfect :)

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I collected some historical data from web archives of the Videocard benchmarks site: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14nxsO6358X08oZv2fO37x9X261AuUdGwHhCUE1elk4c/edit The price performance trend is very non-smooth, seems that prices fluctuate quite a lot, and there isn't much of a consistent upward trend over short timescales. *— edited by jack* This comment was moved from *What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?* to this question group. Learn more about [Question groups]...

@ugandamaximum It doesn't include them, the last line of the question says:

Only those that cross the median line (shown on the MND reports) are reported since the ADIZ crosses into Chinese airspace.

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I think if this was going to happen, it would by far been most likely to have happened in August after Pelosi's visit, so I'm predicting far lower than the community currently. (I also am pretty sure it didn't already happen in August, but doing the data collection here is a huge pain.)

Currently, the older age groups (60s, 70s) have the most hospitalizations, and also the highest vaccination rates. Over the next months, the difference in vaccination rates will decrease and so the hospitalization rate in younger groups will go down much more than in older groups, which will just increase the share of hospitalizations among older age groups.

3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions.

Seems like this could easily happen in a healthy bank, or in a bank that has a troubled division but is overall stable and not in danger of failure. Example: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/wells-fargo-s…