Applying a (fairly conservative) 8% growth rate to current numbers yields 10k deaths per day by mid-April. In my view, this is mostly a question about testing capacity and case confirmation than it is about lethality, which is clearly well into >100k/month territory.

@ugandamaximum he's +110 yes on this question, trying to juice the council of three

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@metani This is an important question. I favor including the J&J vaccine for three reasons: outright vaccine efficacy is less important to mass vaccination than I had assumed when I wrote the question; I didn't intend for the vaccines in this question to be effective against variants, just against the original strain (and it appears to be >70% against the original strain--it's variants that bring the efficacy numbers down); and finally this is a US question so using US efficacy numbers makes sense to me.

@nextbigfuture No call by a news organization is "legally binding," that's not what they're for.

Given the [resolution issues we’ve seen in other questions that require users to self-report](, I think the first resolution criterion (five users out of top 100 must report having ridden) seems overwhelmingly likely to turn the resolution process into a get-out-the-vote campaign for the top 100 users (who could be a totally different group of people when this is relevant in 2022-2035), much the way the questio...

I see no evidence on Google that this moved out of committee or has received any kind of floor vote, both of which would be necessary for it to pass. Given that Congress is in recess until April 20th, this is unlikely to pass unless something unusual happens (e.g. Congress returns early).

Lawrence Livermore has announced they achieved ignition on Dec. 5, 2022.

"About two megajoules in, about three megajoules out," in the immortal phrasing of the US defense programs deputy director.

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As with many of these questions, I find myself wishing the resolution timeline were further out. We're not really predicting AI progress on this problem, we're predicting academic publishing cycles on this problem.

This comment was originally posted on June 14, 2021

It's quite likely Biden could have a poor debate, but 5-point swings are as rare as blue moons in modern national elections with high levels of partisanship and low numbers of true undecideds. 2-3 points? Maybe. Five or more? You'd need some type of major scandal or health scare, I think.

I'd be very interested in a question on semaglutide as a potential obesity treatment:……

@nagolinc Impeachment requires 67 yes votes in the Senate. If 17+ GOP senators have turned on Trump enough to impeach him, it means his party's tacit approval has collapsed and he's leaving by more conventional means.

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@Jgalt This is twitter being twitter. Bodegas are allowed to have clean floors and fancy lights.

I also very much doubt the percentage of voting New Yorkers basing their decisions on any one thing that happened on twitter in January exceeds 0.1%.

@Pablo I do a lot of weird old pseudo-archival research like this and am always shocked at how slipshod everything not named Wikipedia is.

@(alwaysrinse) this seems like an example of overindexing on one highly visible but not particularly consequential aspect of the thing you're trying to predict and underindexing on base rates, long term trends, boring fundamentals, etc. Every few years half the population convinces itself that some highly visible culture-clash issue will explain some rapid and scary crime rate change (long hair and weed are destroying society! duke nukem causes school shootings!) when in reality crime rates since AD 1600 are generally on a long slow downward slog drive...

@PeterHurford The community also assigns 2% odds to the minimum wage being $20; a decent amount of people just aren't adjusting the sliders to avoid long tails to the right.

Small suggestion: I'd prefer an average of the ~3 cheapest drives listed instead of the absolute cheapest. Eliminates some unnecessary variance and is more in line with the title, which asks about a "typical consumer," not the most optimized consumer possible.

@Jgalt I would vote yes; higher-level closures seem to me to count a fortiori.

A little frustrating this question was written to automatically become void if no test was administered before Jan. 1 2021. Did we expect the pandemic to magically vanish and a crop of willing 4th graders to appear in the fall of 2020? Does GPT-3 turn back into a pumpkin at midnight on Dec. 31st? Why the arbitrary deadline?