@Nostradamnus As far as I know, part of Metaculus mission is to collect users track record on short term question in order to use that record as a proxy for assigning credibility in long term predictions.
But most importantly, it's just an important question to ask :) .
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@Linch See this Twitter thread:
Our daily update is published. We’ve now tracked 5.2 million tests, up 300k from yesterday, another huge day.
Note that we can only track tests that a state reports.
(...)
After a time when it seemed testing numbers had settled down, there is a lot of change in the statistics coming out of the states right now. Testing is ramping; new systems are coming online; old reporting mistakes are being discovered; numbers are being restated.
The question hinges on the definition of "superhuman performance".
What does it mean to be superhuman? Does it mean better than any human in their respective field of expertise or just better than an average human across all field of expertise?
One is genuinely extremely hard. Another one is not that far away from what Google or GPT-3 is able to do if we think about question answering.
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From DeepMind, a 280 billion parameter language model: Gopher, Ethical considerations, and Retrieval
Gopher gets 60% on this benchmark, seems like forecasters were predicting this to happen between 2022 - 2023. I love that they compare to forecasters.
Also, mathematics seems like tough nut to crack. This question requires at least 70% accuracy on all math tasks.
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@casens I don't believe it's possible even in principle to solve control problem. It's an ill posed problem, and it's highly unlikely that there could be any consensus around solution to that problem. But I think it's highly likely that AGI will be beneficial.
For example, corporations are super human entities that are generally beneficial. But corporate law is not a problem that can be solved. So I'm at 3% for this question.
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@Reprisal The question states:
Currently, with 53 seats, the Republican Party occupies a majority of the 100 seats in the Senate.
The 53 seats count does not include VP, even tough he is a republican.
Therefore, it's clear that the question can not count VP in 51 seats count needed for positive resolution and be internally consistent.
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In "Community stats":
The Metaculus prediction is 0.6%
Cool, Metaculus can go below 1% :) .
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Based on increasing interest in neural theorem proving and Minerva I've updated from 40% to 60%.
I want to say it publicly because I'm far away from the community.
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@Uncle Jeff @EvanHarper @YasmineBose
Please, don't change Metaculus into a political forum.