I found an interesting meta-analysis of the current literature with regard to IFR. The mean of the summary estimate is 0.75% (surprisingly similar to Metaculus!), but 95% CI is a lot more narrow 0.49-1.01.
@jipkin The website itself may not exists, but it will be almost certainly archived. I would love to know what question people in 1800 or 800 would make and what would be their predictions.
Interesting research on this topic:
Supercentenarians and the oldest-old are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans "As such, relative poverty and short lifespan constitute unexpected predictors of centenarian and supercentenarian status, and support a primary role of fraud and error in generating remarkable human age records." https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1
Could we stop using imperial units? It's a ridiculous system.
Or at least update the question to include the standard, metric system?
9 foot = 274 cm
8 foot = 244 cm
I would be interested to see more sorting options:
It would be also nice to have auto categories for open ended and closed ended questions types, so that we can filter them.
— edited by isinlor
I'm curious what other people think about opening politics.metaculus.com and moving politics there while keeping only the most important / least contentious questions on the main?
@nagolinc It also appears that infections roughly follow Pareto principle - around 80% of infections are caused by around 20% of events. So, if Metaculus users are very good at avoiding this types of situations, the difference may be amplified in a nonintuitive way.
For next Starship flight:
On 18 Dec 2019, Elon Musk predicted he’d deliver on 18 March 2020. He is much more likely to deliver around 14 July 2020.
And it's really super funny how close he is to operating in Mars years. Mars year is 1.88 of Earth year, your correction is 1.775, and add 48 days.
— edited by isinlor