Is this three cities that are at any point under Russian control before June, or are the three cities required to be simultaneously under Russian control?
resolves yes: it is 90 seconds to midnight. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/curren…
@Sylvain given that commenting is less central to the usage of this site model than predicting is, I'm curious why the policy is to ban people for those kinds of comments rather than just removing their ability to comment.
@citizen I think the resolution date a year from now is an error, everything for the tournament is ending ~nowish
it would be interesting to have this question but for the pipeline from last year
it would have been helpful if there was a way to order the questions according to the ordering in Scott's form, to speed up the data entry from the spreadsheet page that I have for my predictions.
huh, wonder what happened to the metaculus prediction in late september?
does Russia actually regularly officially announce its nuclear readiness levels? I didn't think the US does for defcon levels.
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they don’t seem to be listing the total since even the anti-mobilization protests stated, which is when they seemed to have restarted the count. right now the site is only showing todays arrests.
Is this just a way of asking whether Labour or Conservatives will head the next government?
If you think that there's a 60% chance Labour will form the first government after the election, doesn't it make sense to put 60% yes on all Labour candidates, and if they do win, then it will resolve ambigous for all Labour members who aren't leaders of the Labour party, and and yes for whichever was leader.
I guess this is also getting at the likelihood of being replaced between the election and forming the government. Does that happen a lot in the UK?
was this performance at all times, or just resolve time?
@humongousboy How do you use those to work out the chance of default?