@jimrandomh That might be sufficient. It's ultimately up to moderators to determine whether they think it's legitimate. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

It's "common knowledge" (myth?) that [birth rates increase](https://www.livescience.com/13031-earthquakes-zealand-increased-birth-rates.html) after disasters. It seems possible that coronavirus quarantines will have the same effect. I was curious, so here is an analysis. (TL;DR, I don't think it will make a difference even under liberal assumptions.) Human gestational period is around 9 months, and 9 months from today is 2021, so only lockdowns that have already occurred can make a difference this calendar year. Sixty million people in China have been ...

@Mati_Roy You can make equivalent "when will it recover" and "how low will it go" questions for S&P if you want.

Italy, Iran, and South Korea are level 3 now.

Values less than 4 are impossible.

We could edit the question to explicitly state that EUA would result in a positive resolution.

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Now they've issued a worldwide level 3 warning. I think this should resolve as >60, per Tamay's March 12 comment. @moderators [Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-global): > Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel—Widespread Ongoing Transmission > Key Points > * Widespread ongoing transmission of a respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is occurring globally. > * CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential international travel. > * Older adults and people o...

How many people will be born in 2021? (Unclear how coronavirus quarantines will affect birth rates.)

https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fat…

"Our current best assumption, as of the 22nd March, is the IFR is approximate 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25)."

Vice News, "[A Chinese Doctor Injected Herself With an Untested Coronavirus Vaccine](https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74p5y/a-chinese-doctor-injected-herself-with-an-untested-coronavirus-vaccine)" (Mar 4 2020) > On Tuesday, the 54-year-old, along with six members of her team, proved their loyalty to the Communist Party by injecting themselves with a vaccine that hasn’t even been tested on animals, in an apparent bid to show how well China is doing in combatting coronavirus. [...] > Experts have warned against high-profile but ultimately pointless di...

Joe Biden just said in the debate that he is committing to having a female running mate. Bernie declined to definitively commit, but he said "in all likelihood" he will.

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Will WikiLeaks release the Julian Assange "dead man switch" key by 2030?

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How does OpenAI's "capped-profit" model differ from this?

Whether there will be widespread rioting / property theft / violence in the US due to COVID

Does anyone want to take a stab at estimating what fraction of people who will die from COVID-19 in 2020 "would have died anyway"?

Possibly helpful sources:

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Is there any interest in having questions on IFR in specific countries or continents/WHO regions? (Maybe those already exist on pandemic.metaculus.com, haven't checked.)

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@Uncle Jeff Source for 75% seriously sick? I believe it, but I'd like to see the precise statement.

Being "seriously sick" doesn't mean they would necessarily die within the calendar year, which is what matters for this question.

@Tamay Yeah, I am too. I'm too lazy to write them now, so I'd like it if someone else would.