@jimrandomh That might be sufficient. It's ultimately up to moderators to determine whether they think it's legitimate. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

It's "common knowledge" (myth?) that [birth rates increase](https://www.livescience.com/13031-earthquakes-zealand-increased-birth-rates.html) after disasters. It seems possible that coronavirus quarantines will have the same effect. I was curious, so here is an analysis. (TL;DR, I don't think it will make a difference even under liberal assumptions.) Human gestational period is around 9 months, and 9 months from today is 2021, so only lockdowns that have already occurred can make a difference this calendar year. Sixty million people in China have been ...

@Mati_Roy You can make equivalent "when will it recover" and "how low will it go" questions for S&P if you want.

Italy, Iran, and South Korea are level 3 now.

Values less than 4 are impossible.

We could edit the question to explicitly state that EUA would result in a positive resolution.

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Now they've issued a worldwide level 3 warning. I think this should resolve as >60, per Tamay's March 12 comment. @moderators [Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-global): > Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel—Widespread Ongoing Transmission > Key Points > * Widespread ongoing transmission of a respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is occurring globally. > * CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential international travel. > * Older adults and people o...

How many people will be born in 2021? (Unclear how coronavirus quarantines will affect birth rates.)


"Our current best assumption, as of the 22nd March, is the IFR is approximate 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25)."

Vice News, "[A Chinese Doctor Injected Herself With an Untested Coronavirus Vaccine](https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74p5y/a-chinese-doctor-injected-herself-with-an-untested-coronavirus-vaccine)" (Mar 4 2020) > On Tuesday, the 54-year-old, along with six members of her team, proved their loyalty to the Communist Party by injecting themselves with a vaccine that hasn’t even been tested on animals, in an apparent bid to show how well China is doing in combatting coronavirus. [...] > Experts have warned against high-profile but ultimately pointless di...

Joe Biden just said in the debate that he is committing to having a female running mate. Bernie declined to definitively commit, but he said "in all likelihood" he will.

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Will WikiLeaks release the Julian Assange "dead man switch" key by 2030?

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How does OpenAI's "capped-profit" model differ from this?

Whether there will be widespread rioting / property theft / violence in the US due to COVID

Does anyone want to take a stab at estimating what fraction of people who will die from COVID-19 in 2020 "would have died anyway"?

Possibly helpful sources:

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Is there any interest in having questions on IFR in specific countries or continents/WHO regions? (Maybe those already exist on pandemic.metaculus.com, haven't checked.)

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@Uncle Jeff Source for 75% seriously sick? I believe it, but I'd like to see the precise statement.

Being "seriously sick" doesn't mean they would necessarily die within the calendar year, which is what matters for this question.

@Tamay Yeah, I am too. I'm too lazy to write them now, so I'd like it if someone else would.