This seems quite scary to me. Conditional upon being true, is the world basically back to April 2020? Or is it plausible that a VOHC would fail to become a dominant strain?
I think betting markets are overreacting to Florida and county-level swings elsewhere look decent for Biden in the midwest. Nonetheless, looking very close and uncertain.
Labour Party - 48% (down 5%)
National Party - 31% (down 1%)
ACT - 7% (up 2%)
Green Party - 6% (up 1%)
New Zealand First - 2%
— edited by honeypuppy
This got me thinking: If you are Tom Brady (or Elon Musk, or anyone else who is incredibly successful), how should that change your credence that the universe is a simulation? Presumably, it's more likely that the creators of simulations would put you in a "starring" role.
Metaculus is always right. All praise Metaculus.
Inspired by the "Will Navalny become President of Russia question, why not simply "When will Vladimir Putin leave office?" (i.e. be neither President nor Prime Minister of Russia).
How do we account for the possibility that the universe is a simulation built around Tom Brady?
I'd tempted to predict 41% (betting lines + 2% for this possibility). But I'm now wondering that betting lines have already priced this in.
Interesting, though without proof. I doubt it's made up, but if it is, I don't begrudge you it. Metaculus trying to converge on an "ironic" answer because of a lie is interesting enough. As does people coming up with increasingly implausible stories about what Scott Alexander told them.
Slightly tinfoil-hat suggestion: The Economist ranks China as a democracy, not because it really is, but because China has the political clout to influence rankings like this.
@SimonM For the vast majority of questions (really all but these ACX ones), the phenomena in question is not predicting the behaviour of a single person who is aware of the Metaculus questions and wants to influence them, potentially mischievously. Questions about unemployment et al don't have the risk of someone deliberately trying to change the real-world phenomena in order to find a loophole.
I'd say conditional upon a very close election, likely one Republicans narrowly lost there might be a 20% chance of this happening. But I think the probability of the election being close enough for this to be plausibly pulled off is generously 25% at most.
For a few minutes a couple of hours ago I really thought Trump might really have tried to pull off a coup while egging on the protestors, and I mentally updated to ~5%.
Now, it's quickly becoming apparent that these are a handful of crazies with no mainstream support, and there is no support from Republican leadership to try to reinstall Trump.