I am considerably more bearish than the median prediction here. The OP cites the precedent of the Whigs and a few other American parties - but the Whigs dissolved in 1856, 164 years ago. Since then, there's been a near-total Republican/Democratic duopoly in American politics, with only a small number of [notable third party performances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third_party_and_independent_performances_in_United_States_elections). There does not appear to be any trend towards greater third-party performances recently. The OP also cites th...

My next assumption is that Scott will be probably biased in favour of helping Metaculus "be right", so he's likely to mention it if the median prediction were close to 100%, but likely not to mention it if it were close to 0%.

Buy, buy, buy!

Will New Zealand announce a new case of local transmission of Covid-19 by the end of 2020? New Zealand has no recorded locally acquired cases of Covid-19 for several months now. However, this was the case in Vietnam until recently as well, and there's been some concern over [several recent travelers from NZ testing positive in other countries](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/coronavirus-expert-warns-kiwis-against-complacency-as-fears-of-community-transmission-grow.html). All travellers into NZ must quarantine for 14 days in an isolati...
[FTX still at 14%](https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB) Given earlier comments about how supposedly the fees aren't that high, I'm sorely tempted to money against it. Still worried about the "too good to be true" effect. How worried should I be that FTX will scam me, or something else will make this not worthwhile? I find it *really* hard to believe this could actually be a reasonable price. I've been following a bunch of right-wing claims to see if there might be something there, and while I can't refute every one of them, there are enough that are obvious...
Good Judgment's superforecasters have given Democrats implied odds of [98%](https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery) (can't direct link, Ctrl +F Congress) to win the House. That seems too high to me. GJ's forecast has Trump at 26% to win, Metaculus has him at 35%, other forecasts are mostly in this ballpark. Conditional upon Trump winning, what is the probability Republicans win the House? I think it would be decently likely, maybe not 50%, but certainly higher than the ~10% implied by Good Judgment. Reasons: - The House of Representatives has a pro-...

This seems quite scary to me. Conditional upon being true, is the world basically back to April 2020? Or is it plausible that a VOHC would fail to become a dominant strain?

I think betting markets are overreacting to Florida and county-level swings elsewhere look decent for Biden in the midwest. Nonetheless, looking very close and uncertain.

My thoughts are that this question resolving positively may be highly conditional upon a close Democratic win, and moderately conditional on the Republican nominee being Donald Trump. (Though, I guess it's not impossible to imagine a result overturned even in an irrelevant landslide, partly because it wouldn't "cross the Rubicon" into actually overturning an election, but could form a dry run for the next time). [Metaculus currently has a member of the Trump family at 35%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the...

New poll

Party support
Labour Party - 48% (down 5%)
National Party - 31% (down 1%)
ACT - 7% (up 2%)
Green Party - 6% (up 1%)
New Zealand First - 2%

— edited by honeypuppy

I suspect he'll want to release it in an election year, probably 2024, even if he finishes it before then, because there's naturally more interests in politics (and Nate Silver) then. (For comparison, his previous book was released in September 2012, slightly over a month prior to the presidential election).


This got me thinking: If you are Tom Brady (or Elon Musk, or anyone else who is incredibly successful), how should that change your credence that the universe is a simulation? Presumably, it's more likely that the creators of simulations would put you in a "starring" role.

Metaculus is always right. All praise Metaculus.

@(SimonM) Predictit had Yang at 10%+ to win the 2020 Dem nomination for significant periods (e.g. [see this screenshot](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1179778622040657923/photo/1)), in which Yang is 3rd at 11%, ahead of even Bernie Sanders). I also recall other prediction markets (like Intrade) having Ron Paul at ~10% to win at some points in '08/'12. I think there's a good case to be made that prediction markets have a systematic bias towards "internet-popular" candidates (specifically, outsider candidates without widespread popular suppor...

Inspired by the "Will Navalny become President of Russia question, why not simply "When will Vladimir Putin leave office?" (i.e. be neither President nor Prime Minister of Russia).

How do we account for the possibility that the universe is a simulation built around Tom Brady?

I'd tempted to predict 41% (betting lines + 2% for this possibility). But I'm now wondering that betting lines have already priced this in.


Interesting, though without proof. I doubt it's made up, but if it is, I don't begrudge you it. Metaculus trying to converge on an "ironic" answer because of a lie is interesting enough. As does people coming up with increasingly implausible stories about what Scott Alexander told them.

Liz Cheney was removed from her leadership position in the US House. According to liberal publications like Vox, [this could be indicative of Republicans refusing to certify a future Democratic win](https://www.vox.com/22420764/liz-cheney-trump-republicans-democracy-2024). I'd to see one or more questions that try to grapple with this prospect. Possibilities: - Will there will be a serious effort to overturn the results of the 2024 election? - Will be there be a *successful* effort to overturn the results of the 2024 election? The wording of what is c...

Slightly tinfoil-hat suggestion: The Economist ranks China as a democracy, not because it really is, but because China has the political clout to influence rankings like this.

@SimonM For the vast majority of questions (really all but these ACX ones), the phenomena in question is not predicting the behaviour of a single person who is aware of the Metaculus questions and wants to influence them, potentially mischievously. Questions about unemployment et al don't have the risk of someone deliberately trying to change the real-world phenomena in order to find a loophole.