My next assumption is that Scott will be probably biased in favour of helping Metaculus "be right", so he's likely to mention it if the median prediction were close to 100%, but likely not to mention it if it were close to 0%.
Buy, buy, buy!
This seems quite scary to me. Conditional upon being true, is the world basically back to April 2020? Or is it plausible that a VOHC would fail to become a dominant strain?
I think betting markets are overreacting to Florida and county-level swings elsewhere look decent for Biden in the midwest. Nonetheless, looking very close and uncertain.
Party support
Labour Party - 48% (down 5%)
National Party - 31% (down 1%)
ACT - 7% (up 2%)
Green Party - 6% (up 1%)
New Zealand First - 2%
— edited by honeypuppy
I suspect he'll want to release it in an election year, probably 2024, even if he finishes it before then, because there's naturally more interests in politics (and Nate Silver) then. (For comparison, his previous book was released in September 2012, slightly over a month prior to the presidential election).
This got me thinking: If you are Tom Brady (or Elon Musk, or anyone else who is incredibly successful), how should that change your credence that the universe is a simulation? Presumably, it's more likely that the creators of simulations would put you in a "starring" role.
Metaculus is always right. All praise Metaculus.
Inspired by the "Will Navalny become President of Russia question, why not simply "When will Vladimir Putin leave office?" (i.e. be neither President nor Prime Minister of Russia).
How do we account for the possibility that the universe is a simulation built around Tom Brady?
I'd tempted to predict 41% (betting lines + 2% for this possibility). But I'm now wondering that betting lines have already priced this in.
Interesting, though without proof. I doubt it's made up, but if it is, I don't begrudge you it. Metaculus trying to converge on an "ironic" answer because of a lie is interesting enough. As does people coming up with increasingly implausible stories about what Scott Alexander told them.
Slightly tinfoil-hat suggestion: The Economist ranks China as a democracy, not because it really is, but because China has the political clout to influence rankings like this.
@SimonM For the vast majority of questions (really all but these ACX ones), the phenomena in question is not predicting the behaviour of a single person who is aware of the Metaculus questions and wants to influence them, potentially mischievously. Questions about unemployment et al don't have the risk of someone deliberately trying to change the real-world phenomena in order to find a loophole.