X -> Y is the frequency of a charity that has a comprehensive review in 2020 transitioning from review status X to review status Y in a single year.
Slate Star Codex is back under the name Astral Codex Ten. Notably for this question, Scott publicly posted his full name there, so it does seem like pseudonymity will be much less of an issue if the NYT plans another post on the blog.
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Linear fit to the data given (done in MATLAB) gives 4.8% to 6.0% in 2019.
@gjm Another issue with the literal reading is that if the patient sticks to a healthy sleep schedule, it will resolve negative because at some time in any 24-hour period they'll be unconscious.
Wild Animal Initiative is now an Animal Charity Evaluators top charity.
@casens Unless I’ve messed up the formulation of the question, the relevant TIME person of the year is announced in December after the election in November - so barring an election irregularity the editorial board would already know who the president-elect is
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Chaos! Chaos! It's down to 96%!
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I really hope the attorney general isn't planning anything tonight.
@holomanga What percentage of people would be included if he went forth with the $150,000 threshold?
electionbettingodds gives a 35% chance that Biden will announce Kamala Harris as running mate at all.
I do what I must because I can.
A note to the people putting spikes at 2036: because the boundary is not open, you’re literally putting a very narrow prediction that SLS will land people on the moon in exactly the first half of 2036 (if they land by 2036 at all).
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I had a dream last night that the community prediction on this question had dropped to 60%. I hope that it was not prophetic.
HARR.DNOM20 is at 20¢ and SAND.DNOM20 is at 17¢ on PredictIt.
I have a sporadically updated spreadsheet keeping track of this over time.
Interesting to see that the Metaculus prediction matched the PredictIt ~18% as far back as October last year!
I calculated the transition probabilities between different review statuses of charities from ACE: https://i.imgur.com/d8q8ykd.png. So far, about four new charities are reviewed to comprehensive status or above each year, and of those, 1/21 have been ones working on reducing wild animal suffering (i.e. one of them).
Running a monte carlo simulation of this gives at least one WAS charity at top status at the end of 2023 in 21% of cases.
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When posting a Metaculus link to social media, the thumbnail only shows the distribution of predictions, though most of the time what I want to show off is the median of predictions.
