This is by a large margin the most exciting improvement on Metaculus in a very long time. Thank you!
@Tamay I can write such a bot right now. All it has to do is search for a question that mentions Elon Musk or Donald Trump, make an inane rah-rah or boo-boo comment, and then never interact with Metaculus again.
The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a #Brexit flextension until 31 January 2020. The decision is expected to be formalised through a written procedure.
I think that's sufficient for this to resolve negative.
On the Stack Exchange network of Q&A sites, questions that seem to be attracting a lot of "noise" can be protected, meaning that only people with a certain number of Meaningless Internet Points are allowed to post answers to them.
Perhaps we should have a similar feature for questions that attract an exceptionally high level of nonsense comments and extreme predictions. (Looking at you, SpaceX On Mars question...)
Looks very unlikely to be Israel at this point: "This time, we will not go to the moon."
@Uncle Jeff, the only big protests for which I've known anyone who went -- this is in the UK rather than France or the US -- showed no obvious sign of being "bought" by any big sponsor. What is your evidence that the Gilet Jaune protests have been manufactured in such a way?
@pranomostro At American universities, "class of X" means the people expected to graduate in year X. (More precisely, it may mean either the ones who actually do end up graduating in year X, or the ones who at the time of admission are expected to graduate in year X. For most people there's no difference between the two, but if you skip a year or defer a year or something then they differ.)
The title says "get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election". The resolution condition in the question only concerns the first part of that. What's the intended resolution if one of these petitions collects enough validated signatures but for some reason a recall election then doesn't happen? (E.g., the rules change, or there's some sort of legal challenge, or the administration decides to go for blatant corruption and just doesn't do what it's meant to, etc.)
@prjdnath I think you have misunderstood the point of Metaculus, which is to try to make accurate predictions, not to say what you want to happen nor to declare which side you're on.
This is a longstanding complaint. I forget whether there's an actual good reason for the stupid-seeming thing the Metaculus scoring system does when a question resolves early, but what's certainly true is that the issue has come up several times before, people have very reasonably complained about it several times before, and nothing has been changed :-).
@TamayBesiroglu That's very nice, but e.g. North Korea claims to be a democracy already so I'm not sure how much stock one can put in such claims...
Coming in late here to agree with everyone else: leave it as it is.