@Jgalt On the upside, it's definitely a related question.
@alexanderpolta Honestly, if we had a direct report from one of those vanishingly rare individuals, I think (p=0.75) you would just say "oh, they were bribed to say it" or something.
@Anthony The usual annoying ping to see whether there's any sign of movement on this...
@Uncle Jeff Ugh.
The hospital he's at is a good one and so far as I can tell we don't yet have a terrible shortage of equipment or staff.
If someone is seriously ill, putting them on a long plane flight is not terribly good for their health.
At least some anti-inflammatories are believed to make COVID-19 worse.
Can we maybe skip the politicized cheerleading on this one?
This has nothing to do with predictions on this question, but I cannot get over the fact that there is a place in the US called "Gobbler's Knob".
The lower end of the range should possibly be exactly 2, since it's possible that someone will prove that there's an algorithm that runs in or something of the kind. (I agree with the judgement, implicit in the current range, that incremental improvements are more likely.)
@Jgalt An astonishing outcome! Who could possibly have predicted that?
Carlsen just went 3-0 in the rapids and therefore wins the match. Question should therefore resolve positive.
@Tamay "At least one living person" sounds pretty good to me. Maybe specify that there has to be good reason to think that they were alive for, let's say, at least one minute after whatever they're in makes contact with the surface of Mars. (That means e.g. that resolution is negative if they crash-land and get completely smashed up, but positive if they land but the oxygen supply fails and they die a few minutes later.)
@KrisMoore I think that as a seasoned Metaculite you ought to know better than to be posting that sort of pure-noise comment. (I'm guessing that you're poking fun rather than seriously endorsing kimbob14's comment, but either way it's pure noise.) It's bad enough that we have this constant drip of new posters coming in just to say "yay Trump" or "yay Elon Musk" or whatever, but we could really do without actual established users doing the same.
Yeah, I think this question urgently needs some clarity on what counts as a "transitional period".
The question asks not whether Tesla is fraudulent but what its market cap is going to be on a particular date. @alexanderpolta what "updating to the true state of the world" do you think might be called for? A company that has a large market cap due to fraud still has a large market cap.
(I am making no comment on the plausibility of the specific accusations here, not least because it's not at all clear to me what they are.)
User holahey has made exactly one prediction ever and posted four comments all of which were promoting his "Atlas Predict" thing. What's Metaculus's position on comment spam?
(I mean, obviously it's much more relevant than most comment spam -- it's not like these are comments on a literary-criticism blog saying "come and visit our porn site" -- but, still, spam.)
@Sylvain Project location radially onto earth's surface at the instant when it happens, obviously.
(Seriously: yes, of course, resolve ambiguous.)