@gristedes, I think you may be confused about the purpose of this site, which is to predict, not to make moral evaluations. Asking the question (or indeed predicting a high probability of positive resolution) doesn't mean wanting a future in which the question resolves positively. Expatiating angrily on how veganism is unnatural and immoral does nothing to help figure out whether some country will ever make it law. (There is no shortage of unnatural and immoral things that countries have made law, after all.)
@Jgalt I'm not sure there's much value in attempting to have a serious rational discussion with someone who thinks "human genes are degrading (social justice, equality)" is a coherent, never mind plausible, claim.
I note that it still hasn't been clarified whether these people have to get to Mars alive for positive resolution. That seems possibly important.
@mbuffle2023 70 years ago was 2019-70 = 1949. The Apollo manned moon landings were 1969-1972. I know some people believe that the moon landings were a hoax, but I haven't heard that any of those people believe that we did land humans on a celestial object 20 years before them...
@Jgalt I'm not sure it's worth responding to comments like theoubass's, which completely fails to understand what Metaculus is about and attempts to use it as a platform for political cheerleading.
@notany The odd thing is that this doesn't happen in most Metaculus questions' comments -- but maybe we should see it as a foretaste of what will happen everywhere if Metaculus becomes much more popular.
(Though I suspect most of Metaculus is just fundamentally not very interesting to the sort of person most inclined to leave that kind of comment.)
@bzial I estimated a low probability precisely because of the $10B condition. I am quite upset if this resolves positively while ignoring that condition.
Is it possible for the answer to the question to become known before the current closing date? If so, have you specified clearly and unambiguously what should happen then, and thought carefully about whether it's appropriate?
It would be nice to have clarification on what happens if Travis remains at number 1 all the way to this question's resolution date. Presumably either the question resolves ambiguous ("there was no such date") or else it's treated as "> Aug 7, 2030" ("it certainly isn't any sooner").
I would favour the latter, except that I don't understand why the resolution date is half a year before the latest possible answer; I think the two should match (preferably by moving the resolution date, since by design there's a 10-year window).
@Jgalt On the upside, it's definitely a related question.