@Anthony Have you considered doing a Kaggle-esque prize for improving the metaculus prediction algorithm? I bet you could significantly improve the existing one w/o it taking much more time from your team.
We need a separate question estimating the likelihood a plurality of organizers are negative utilitarians in order to estimate whether COVID causes them to cancel the conference or invite more people.
My compliments to the organizers of this prize series - I've seen many discussions on the internet point to the Metaculus questions on the Coronavirus, and use it to help ground discussion in quantifiable estimates. Obviously the key question of accuracy will be known later, but I think it's a great showcase of how centralized aggregations of predictions can be useful.
To be clear while showcasing the usefulness of Metaculus is great, the possibility of a global pandemic is not great. I am not pro pandemic.
Rus-BY exercises are scheduled to last for 10 days, but people say in TikTok their relatives are being sent for 3-9 months. This girl is saying her husband, who serves in air assault battalion (155th Detached Brigade Naval Infantry) says it's "not an exercises, they're heading to Ukraine".
EAG sent out an email saying they’ve appointed a board of advisors to help determine whether they should continue to hold the event as planned, postpone, or cancel.
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When playing against grandmasters:
The average win rate of AlphaStar across all three races: 55.25%
@Tamay I think it should resolve as ambiguous to avoid confounding estimations. I might write a separate binary question that asks Will Libra launch by XX date.
Wuhan already fulfills the criteria with a population of 11 M and at least one report of food shortages, though there seem to be disagreements about whether there are food shortages in Wuhan.
Experiment! I'm crowdsourcing suggestions for a sub-question that would be highly informative for this question. E.G. what question should we forecast that would reveal a lot of information about whether Brexit will happen by Oct. 31st? You can vote or submit your own questions here:
@Jgalt It was a brutal exchange. According to the prediction markets this debate cut his chance at the nomination in half.
@casens They also need to take into account known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns. For instance there's concern that post-viral fatigue and other long term debilitations are worse w/ the coronavirus, but it's currently unknown.
@steven0461 The costs to the ties within the community would be much higher if an EA event led to more infections. Something like "leadership didn't prioritize the communities safety" and/or an implicit association that EA conferences lead to bad things happening. The later is my model of why many other conferences have already been cancelled (1, 2)
@Jgalt He turned out to be a security guard; it was incorrectly reported that he had fake credentials.
While it seems possible that the US will initiate additional military action against Iran this year (20%) it's almost certainly not the case (7%) that the president would ask for and receive congressional approval.
Bill Barr was vehemently opposed to Snowden receiving a pardon - his departure might be over upcoming Trump pardons.
This is awesome, thanks @Max
@DanielFilan@Anthony Smarkets has political markets on the Democratic primaries, but they are lower volume than the PredictIt markets. For example only £469 has been traded on the California outcome.