@(galen) Further to this hunt for a sensible prior, it looks like there's [a Senate Committee Report that lists announced closure dates](https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations/~/media/Committees/ec_ctte/Coal_fired_power_stations/Final%20Report/c02.pdf). Only four stations have listed 'announced closure' dates --- one of which has occurred since the report was written --- and the table itself is sourced to "Australian Energy Council Submission 44, p. 5". The remaining three:...

Updated forecast from Casey Briggs for a state-by-state guesstimate:

State Estimated Date
NSW October 18
ACT October 22
VIC November 10
TAS November 11
QLD December 2
SA December 5
WA December 8
NT December 12
@(ThirdEyeOpen) In an ideal world, I like to see crypto prediction markets that mirror some large portion of open metaculus questions. But I'd also like to see metaculus's incentives stay largely as they are. Some tweaking, sure, but not 'all the way to a market but without real cash'. Given that prediction markets and forecasting aggregation platforms are still pretty green fields, it'd be really nice to maintain some amount of mechanism diversity for the sake of comparing actual outcomes. I've traded on polymarket and Augur, but I sort of cherish the ...

I recently had the opportunity to actually play around with the OpenAI Beta API a little. I'd previously seen some examples, along with commentary from others who have explored the model with more depth. Personal interaction, though, caused me to reflect on how much I would personally be willing to pay access to the model --- and how much value I think could be extracted from people like me in the short term. Both factors caused me to update pretty significantly.

@ThirdEyeOpen An update down. I was previously at 50%. (Sorry for the lack of clarity!)

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@chrisjbillington I agree with the entire picture you've painted here, and I think I was failing to really think properly about the 'latency vs throughput' distinction; thanks heaps for clarifying your position. With recent developments on the AstraZeneca concerns, I've become more pessimistic, but only slightly.

@(TheBillby) I can't say I've read all 167 pages of this report in detail, but the portions of it that I *have* read caused me to update upwards. In particular, from the ES: > Our detailed analysis in this report of CO2 emissions from power and industrial facilities in the People’s Republic of China, Europe and the United States finds that 70% of the emissions are within 100 km of potential storage, a relatively practical and cost-effective range for transporting the captured CO2. In the United States, CO2 captured at existing facilities is transported...
I'm updating away from the community here, and towards a more aggressive closure timeline. My main reasons for updating: 1. Costs of sustainable energy alternatives in Australia are falling faster than I previously expected; 2. Battery technology is improving faster than I previously expected; 3. Partly as a result of (1) and (2), but also as a result of a slightly more nuanced understanding of the end-of-life risks of these power plants, I no longer believe that the Loy Yang A & B will be profitable into the 2040s when they are currently projected to c...

@Sylvain This is wonderful on many levels. Thanks again!

This recent study looks at the effect of whip use on race 'integrity', horse speed, and horse movement by comparing races in Great Britain where whips were carried but not used ('hand and heels' races) to races where whip use was permitted. The authors find no statistically significant difference on any front.

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@(NavyVet) I'm trying. I'm in Australia, and I'm guessing you're in the US. It's possible I'm in a bubble, here, in more ways than one. I can only imagine how it must feel for you to watch as thousands of your fellow citizens die every day in a global pandemic; to have those deaths be so politicized (and partisan); to see millions --- including your own President --- cast doubt on a legitimate election; to see violent clashes between protesters and police; to fear for your friends and family. I really don't mean to be flippant. I'm trying to understand...
I know this is still a few hours from resolution, but the [latest podcast](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-final-reflections-on-the-2020-campaign-before-election-day/) was just posted with the phrase "the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast" in the description. @admins If you're comfortable using the official ['FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast' RSS feed](https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317), along with the python [feedparser](https://www.tutorialspoint.com/python_text_processing/python_reading...
Usually I try to update my forecast incrementally in response to news etc, but I think recent events --- particularly the [allegations of rape occurring in Parliament House](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/17/brittany-higgins-who-knew-what-and-when-about-the-alleged-at-parliament-house), associated [complaints](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-22/fourth-woman-accuses-staffer-in-brittany-higgins-case/13178190), and government response --- have made that incremental updating harder. I'm starting over and trying not to be too wedded t...

@alexrjl "Metaculus: Come for the COVID forecasting; stay for the useful analogies in a discussion of competing desiderata for a scoring rule."

Given that the metaculus community is at 10% for deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020, I couldn’t bring myself to go any lower.

"[Somerton Man identified as Melbourne electrical engineer, researcher says ](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-26/somerton-man-identified-melbourne-born-engineer-researcher-says/101272182)" ([ABC News](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-26/somerton-man-identified-melbourne-born-engineer-researcher-says/101272182)): > Adelaide University researcher Derek Abbott believes the unknown man found slumped and lifeless at Adelaide's Somerton Beach on December 1, 1948, was Carl "Charles" Webb, a 43-year-old engineer and instrument maker. > > [...] > > While ...

This is a minor correction, but --- based on my reading of both the graph provided on the top500 website, and the historical data provided in the spreadsheet --- it seems as though the claim that "the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%" is untrue: an earlier US peak of 68.31% occurred in 2005.10.01.

This comment was originally posted on June 2021

@admins I didn't catch this in [Chalmers' original discussion](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) when this question was open, but the 'immigration' item has no asterisk next to it. I now believe that this indicates that the question was *considered* but was not included in the final survey. I certainly can't find this question in the [main results list](https://philsurvey.org/survey/results/all). I may be misunderstanding things here. If it was asked, it should be listed in the ['Politic...