@alexrjl Something like this might work (if you'll forgive my end-of-a-long-work-day code quality!). I'll get a version of this running in a scheduled AWS Lambda.

@Jgalt y’all are really making me feel better about losing 174 points and 5 places in the rankings on a forecast about my own election. I will get better at this!

(@ThirdEyeOpen) While I disagree with @NavyVet's assessment, and agree with @Pablo that we should mostly ignore a claim that "We ARE in a Civil War", I'm gonna do my best to provide some sources that would (kinda/sorta/very-abstractly) support a few of these claims. Please forgive my chaotic hyperlinking: **1. "Ammo, body armor, firearms are almost sold out".** I did see [some](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/its-not-just-food-and-hand-sanitizer-panicked-coronavirus) [mention](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/16...
For the first time in many years, Pantone's London Fashion Week [trend report](https://www.pantone.com/articles/fashion-color-trend-report/london-fashion-week-spring-summer-2022) shows *no overlap* in named standout colours. They show only two overlaps in their 'core classics' ('Poppy Seed' and 'Northern Droplet'). Have they caught on to us? While the palettes are remarkably similar --- so I'll still be forecasting by beginning with the hue overlap --- I no longer expect to be able to name a single colour. For London, they list the following: 1. [Cas...

Looks like this resolves positively:

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2020 was awarded jointly to Paul R. Milgrom and Robert B. Wilson "for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats."

(Both from Stanford.)

@Pablo I'm so happy to see this question again! And now in hue!

Given that Ultimate Gray was also in the New York / London overlap for 2021, but I missed the relevance of the 'core classics', I'll be predicting on the basis of the total overlap of Spring/Summer reports this year. Unfortunately, this approach means I won't be able to narrow my prediction until September. I don't view the Autumn/Winter trend reports (which were released a few weeks ago) as relevant to this forecast.

Now that New York Fashion Week has concluded, and Pantone has released their '[Color Trend Report](https://www.pantone.com/articles/fashion-color-trend-report/new-york-fashion-week-spring-summer-2022)' on the event, I'm making my first forecast on this question. I expect I will narrow this further after London Fashion Week (16-21 September). I currently expect that the 2022 Pantone Color of the Year will be one of the following colors. I'll use Pantone's colour names for this list, but will link directly to the encycolorpedia listing, noting that the co...
I have an ill-defined 'mood of the community' question: are folks broadly in favour of a 'multiple questions operationalising a single issue in different ways' approach? I have in mind something like these questions about bitcoin's value ([1](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/), [2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/), [3](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/),...
[OpenNEM lists 16 coal facilities](https://opennem.org.au/facilities/nem/) (as mentioned in the question text) and [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_Australia) lists scheduled closures for the following 12 (given, here, in ascending order of scheduled closure): - Liddell, NSW: 2022 - Vales Point B, NSW: 2028 - Gladstone, Qld: 2032 - Yallourn W, Vic: 2032 - Eraring, NSW: 2034 - Bayswater, NSW: 2035 - Tarong, Qld: 2036 - Callide B, Qld: 2039 - Mt Piper, NSW: 2043 - Loy Yang B, Vic: 2046 - Stanwell, Qld: 2046 - ...
@(alexrjl) Yep. I've been collecting scrape results for .co.uk, .com, .ca, and .com.au since my previous comment. Scrapes are attempted every 15 minutes, Amazon claims to update the bestseller listings hourly, and the highest observed rank in my scrape data is #3. Given that nobody reported seeing a #1 earlier, and Hachette isn't announcing its success on this one, I support negative resolution. Let's get the humbling points hit over and done with. Also: I'm new to all this cloud stuff, and by no means a software engineer, but I intend to continue coll...

Following on from the pattern of the past few years, I'm betting that the color will be taken from the overlap of the London and New York palettes. This year, that would mean either 'Marigold' or 'Illuminating'.

@silly This is such a delightfully 'metaculus' comment; I love it.

ABC's covid/data reporter, Casey Briggs, yesterday posted [a state-by-state guesstimate for this question](https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1438377017418797057/photo/1). Using the dosing interval, he's guessing: | State | Estimated Date | |-------|----------------| | ACT | October 23 | | NSW | October 21 | | VIC | November 13 | | TAS | November 13 | | SA | December 5 | | NT | December 10 | | QLD | December 9 | | WA | December 11 | (Earlier commentary on his methodology is available [here](https://thr...

This week’s Essential poll is, in every headline number, “don’t go to the polls”.

— edited by galen

@(galen) Further to this hunt for a sensible prior, it looks like there's [a Senate Committee Report that lists announced closure dates](https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations/~/media/Committees/ec_ctte/Coal_fired_power_stations/Final%20Report/c02.pdf). Only four stations have listed 'announced closure' dates --- one of which has occurred since the report was written --- and the table itself is sourced to "Australian Energy Council Submission 44, p. 5". The remaining three:...

Updated forecast from Casey Briggs for a state-by-state guesstimate:

State Estimated Date
NSW October 18
ACT October 22
VIC November 10
TAS November 11
QLD December 2
SA December 5
WA December 8
NT December 12
@(qwertie256) Okay, so I wrote my previous '25%' comment a few months ago, before the GitHub Copilot saga began. I've updated closer to the community (currently ~35%), and I think I was overreacting a little in my initial experience of the beta API. However, I still hold (broadly) the same position that I previously did: I think there's a valuable killer app for GPT-3 lurking in the weeds, and I think it's most likely to come from one of the following four use cases: 1. Dynamic content generation for video games (and other entertainment-industry-adjace...