@Jgalt y’all are really making me feel better about losing 174 points and 5 places in the rankings on a forecast about my own election. I will get better at this!
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2020 was awarded jointly to Paul R. Milgrom and Robert B. Wilson "for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats."
(Both from Stanford.)
@Pablo I'm so happy to see this question again! And now in hue!
Given that Ultimate Gray was also in the New York / London overlap for 2021, but I missed the relevance of the 'core classics', I'll be predicting on the basis of the total overlap of Spring/Summer reports this year. Unfortunately, this approach means I won't be able to narrow my prediction until September. I don't view the Autumn/Winter trend reports (which were released a few weeks ago) as relevant to this forecast.
@silly This is such a delightfully 'metaculus' comment; I love it.
This week’s Essential poll is, in every headline number, “don’t go to the polls”.
— edited by galen
Updated forecast from Casey Briggs for a state-by-state guesstimate: