# Natural number question type
Some questions seem to not need probability on points between natural numbers (numbers for counting or ordering, like 1, 2, and 2022). For example, date questions that use an annual measure (e.g., https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/ ) or exhibit a strict periodicity (e.g., https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8448/ranked-choice-voting-in-us-elections/ ) (as well as "count" questions) cannot practically resolve as 2025.2 or 2024-06-15 and could maybe be simplified by a "na...
Just thinking about a base rate for this question (perhaps quite late in the game?), pulling data from Wikipedia's [List of prime ministers of the United Kingdom by length of tenure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure), focused on 1970 to today:
Prime Minister | Length served | Terms in office | Party | Start
||||
Margaret Thatcher | 11 years, 208 days | 1 | Conservative | 1979
Tony Blair | 10 years, 56 days | 1 | Labour | 1997
David Cameron | 6 years, 63 days | 1 | Conservative | 2010
Edw...
# Individual persons only?
It looks like all the current Public Figures are individual persons. Would a whole publication (program, channel, or other media outlet) fit here? For example, the New York Times (NYT), Wall Street Journal, Economist, MarginalRevolution, or PBS NewsHour could have their own pages.
Keeping track of predictions by publication might have (at least) **a few potential benefits**:
1. If the NYT has a log score of _S_, I can then anchor the prescience of any predictions I read in the New York Times (editorials and op-eds only?) to ...
The December 2021 value in the CUUR0000SA0L1E series is 283.908. In order for this question to resolve positively, this series must be greater than or equal to 292.426 on December 2022. The February 2022 value in the series was already 288.059. For the series to be at 292.425 or lower on December 2022, it needs to grow by 1.515662% or less between February and December.
Since 1957, this series has only done that in 168 10-month periods (\( 22\% = 168 / 772 \)), all of which followed a 12-month period of 2.7875% inflation or less. Inflation from February...
2022-05-11
> The inflation rate is expected to ease further over the rest of this year, but will likely end 2022 at a still-high rate of about 6.3%. In 2023 the rate should fall faster, down to 3.0% by the end of the year. [Kiplinger](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/inflation)
2022-02-11
> Rosen sees inflation hitting 8% to 9% in a few months, before falling to 4 to 5% by year end. [Kenneth Rosen, chair of the Fisher Center and a Berkeley Haas professor emeritus](https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/2022-economic-forecast-inflation-...
Notebook-linked questions show resolutions and reader's predictions, if any
Just checking out some Notebooks (seems like a very cool idea) and noticing that if I have made a prediction on a linked question, that does not show up on the embedded chart on the Notebook page. Also noticing that if a question has already resolved, the resolution does not show up on the embedded chart on the Notebook page. Both of those things would be nice to see within the Notebook rather than having to open a new page to see the full question.
@(Jgalt) @casens The National Association of Scholars has addressed the running for a second term debate, which is summed up here:
> [Only six presidents](https://www.nas.org/blogs/article/ask_a_scholar_declining_the_second_term) have chosen to bow out after serving one full term. Four of those presidents had actually been in the White House for more than four years because they took over from former presidents who had died in office. The last president to deliberately call it quits after serving for four years was Rutherford B. Hayes in 1880. [[Fivethi...
@(RyanBeck) Agree. I haven't predicted yet because, to me, 3c seems possible only as an aberration (rather than the statistical regularity of 3a and 3b) and we shouldn't assess forecasters on aberrations. It's like looking for the stock tip that's correct 100 days in a row -- that only happens by throwing zillions of models at the problem and picking after the fact.
Being "better than" should not require pseudo infallibility, and in fact this likely selects a "worse than" model, merely a statistically strong case. :)
*[[Edited "regularity of 3a and 3c"...
(@Jgalt) First, great question!
## Second, a few notes:
- the [DQYDJ link above](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/) states 2021 when it means that the survey was fielded in 2021 about 2020 income.
- the DQYDJ link above states "Fnd the methodology in the [United States average income, median income, and income percentile post](https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-household-income-percentiles/)" and that page says
> Data originated in the United States Census Bureau's **Annual ASEC survey**, first released in September 2021. Th...
The [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1146.html) has their own projections where they saw a decennial population decline only in their "zero immigration" scenario. If this scenario had started in 2016, the first decline would be 20 years later and would be first recorded in the 2040 decennial census.
Perhaps even more interesting, **the Census Bureau does not project a negative natural increase** from 2016 - 2060 (more deaths than births) for any of the four scenarios except, again, in the "zero immigration" scena...
The [Federal Reserve's 2021-12-15 median "projection"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm) for 2022 Core PCE inflation was 2.7%.
But this question is about the not seasonally adjusted Core CPI inflation. The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank [said on 2014-04-17](https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-trends/2014-economic-trends/et-20140417-pce-and-cpi-inflation-whats-the-difference.aspx),
> Since 2000, core CPI has averaged annual increases of 3.9 percent, and core PCE has averaged 3.4 pe...
42% chance of being enacted according to [Skopos Labs](https://www.skoposlabs.com/) [[GovTrack]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799)
Details:
> Factors considered:
> The bill's primary sponsor is from the state/territory: WA. The bill's primary sponsor is a Democrat. The bill is assigned to the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions committee. There are 24 related bills in Congress. The bill's primary subject is Health.
> (Factors are based on correlations which may not indicate causation.) [[GovTrack]](https://www.govtrack.us/con...
I'd love a 3-series question group ((1) population, (2) GDP, (3) inequality) for the globe every 20 years, 2040 - 2100. I'm curious what Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) we're on. This will also eventually take advantage of Metaculus' work on fan graphs. If you like this question suggestion, feel free to improve on a potential template, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11530/wor…
I don't think this resolves, but it may be of interest to predictors of this question: [In 1547, Holy Roman Emperor Charles V penned a letter to his ambassador, Jean de Saint-Mauris, part of which was written in the ruler's secret code. Nearly five centuries later, researchers have finally cracked that code, revealing Charles V's fear of a secret assassination plot and continued tensions with France, despite having signed a peace treaty with the French king a few years earlier.](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/cracking-charles-vs-secret-code-reve...