Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.

We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.

Onward, Gaia

@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.

@Jgalt That may be... But this instruction does not apply to me. ;)

@Barbarossa Thanks for the link! I called the phone number listed and learned that FDA and IRB approvals have been given, which means they can begin recruiting participants. (The day the first participant is recruited seems to count as the day the trial starts.) According to the researcher, there is no particular reason to think that they will be delayed past their intended October start date.

@(Uncle Jeff) A) Sorry to hear that you missed the beginning of this particular tournament. We currently share tournament launch information via our newsletter, social media, and discussion posts like this one. There will certainly be more tournaments, including one we’re very excited about that’s launching soon. Stay tuned! B) Since this tournament consists of 16 questions in total, this multi-city structure makes the most sense for now. If we have the opportunity to expand our transit forecasting, then dedicated tournaments for various cities could m...

@Jgalt welp, there goes the plan for our next sprint.

@krtnu Apologies, the source got lost in the shuffle of a couple rounds of edits on this question. I've added the relevant BTS link above.

The site lets you customize a table and download a CSV file with your selections. These are the relevant selections:

  • Geographic Area: Domestic
  • Schedule Type: Total
  • Service Class: Passenger
  • Operating Statistics: Departures Performed (Flights)

@HadiKhan @A_Guy Looking into this now, thanks for bringing it up (and sorry that you have in the past without getting a response).

Since yesterday the Metaculus Prediction has increased from 73% to 78%.

Updating my forecast upward based on the concession to allow Navalny to see non-prison physicians, and the continuing protests.

Congratulations @casens and @beala, and welcome!

@michal_dubrawski, you ran an admirable campaign – hope to see your ticket in the next election :)


Hi Emil,

While we welcome debate and discussion about forecast questions and factors that may be relevant to the development of forecasts, comments like this one that disparage groups of people based on their race are not welcome here. One of our researchers may have stretched a particular clause in the body of this question beyond what was helpful, and it's been edited to be more in alignment with our standards. In the meantime, I have deleted your comment. Please be more considerate of our community guidelines in the future.

Hi @notany and @isinlor, this competition certainly isn't for everyone. Naturally, we would welcome with interest any additional questions you'd like to pose on the topic of AI. And I agree, @isinlor, that incentivizing good question-writing is definitely worth considering in the future. I also want to reiterate one of the points that @Tamay has made in his thoughtful response: it is a subtle and challenging task to select progress metrics that are likely to matter in 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 10+ years. Producing a rich dataset of forecasts ...

@Jotto Thanks for the feedback, and I agree this was a silly oversight on our (mostly my) part. We’ll fix it for future tournaments.

@Jgalt Having driven around California a lot during the pandemic, I can tell you anecdotally that pollination-as-a-service seems to be quite popular with fruit orchards right now.

Hi @randnix! @casens is right about the policy above, and I think the question on Kamala gets at the thing you want to know in this case. But I mostly just wanted to say that I noticed you've made a bunch of interesting suggestions for new questions on this thread over the last few months. Please consider this a bit of friendly encouragement to write up and submit some of your questions, if you ever feel like it.

@RyanBeck Can’t promise a specific timeline quite yet, but this is definitely on our radar.

@(EvanHarper) @casens I'm genuinely glad to hear that the Random button had some fans, and I'm sorry about axing it! We're in the process of building a new search filter UI, which will be very nicely extensible, so we can add this capability back there pretty easily. Evan, I also really like your ideas about sorting based on "orphanedness" and have been thinking about similar ideas recently. It seems that it would be useful to surface questions that haven't had much recent activity, especially if there's a recent prediction that's far away from the med...

@Rexracer63 The person responsible for the majority of our Econ questions has been in and out of the hospital the last 4 weeks, and will be taking a leave of absence to get better. We’re looking forward to their return as soon as practical, but in the meantime we’ve just brought on a new admin this week, which will help a lot. Thanks for your patience.

@(chris.j.cundy) Thank you for the direct and thoughtful feedback. We are certainly listening, and taking it all in. I relate to the appreciation, and sort of nostalgia, for the less "generic" vibe of the old design. I just didn't quite know how to present that design in some of the more professional/research/government agency/public health contexts that are starting to rely on Metaculus. There is a healthy seedling here as we start to connect community forecasting to public decision-making, and we'd very much like to see it grow. A partial solution co...