Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.
We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.
@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.
@Jgalt That may be... But this instruction does not apply to me. ;)
@qw2019 You’re a Ukrainian reserve officer? Have you been notified by the military that you need to be ready, or anything like that?
@Barbarossa Thanks for the link! I called the phone number listed and learned that FDA and IRB approvals have been given, which means they can begin recruiting participants. (The day the first participant is recruited seems to count as the day the trial starts.) According to the researcher, there is no particular reason to think that they will be delayed past their intended October start date.
I think the community is too low on this. What explanation could Trump give for deciding not to run? That Biden is doing a “good enough” job? That he has more important things to do? Given his recent and repeated comments, that seems unlikely. I suspect that he will:
Given that there are 30 people living there now, only ~20 soft commitments from future residents, and only about ~600 people interested, reaching 1000 residents by year’s end seems vanishingly unlikely.
@krtnu Apologies, the source got lost in the shuffle of a couple rounds of edits on this question. I've added the relevant BTS link above.
The site lets you customize a table and download a CSV file with your selections. These are the relevant selections:
Since yesterday the Metaculus Prediction has increased from 73% to 78%.
Updating my forecast upward based on the concession to allow Navalny to see non-prison physicians, and the continuing protests.
@havlickova.blanka The headline says 2023, but the question says 2024 – I assume 2023 is correct?