Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.
We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.
Onward, Gaia
@RedBox Hi. Our community guidelines require that users keep their comments on the Metaculus platform civil and respectful and free from strong politics. We also ask that users avoid excessive editorializing and keep the focus on forecasting. Please consider this a reminder to respect these rules.
@Jgalt That may be... But this instruction does not apply to me. ;)
@rappatoni There’s a 70% chance we’ll build this feature at some point in the next two quarters.
Closing for now. We’ll resolve as estimates of troop numbers become available.
@Barbarossa Thanks for the link! I called the phone number listed and learned that FDA and IRB approvals have been given, which means they can begin recruiting participants. (The day the first participant is recruited seems to count as the day the trial starts.) According to the researcher, there is no particular reason to think that they will be delayed past their intended October start date.
There have been a number of public comments about SWIFT being most likely off the table.
@EvanHarper Legend.
Given that there are 30 people living there now, only ~20 soft commitments from future residents, and only about ~600 people interested, reaching 1000 residents by year’s end seems vanishingly unlikely.
@RedBox @alwaysrinse @exmateriae Hi. 8:53pm Pacific time on February 23 and 4:53am GMT on February 24 are the same time. Our system requires that question resolutions must be done in the local timezone of the admin performing the resolution. We're taking a moment to validate that there are no issues in our data model that would cause problems and then will re-resolve.
@krtnu Apologies, the source got lost in the shuffle of a couple rounds of edits on this question. I've added the relevant BTS link above.
The site lets you customize a table and download a CSV file with your selections. These are the relevant selections:
Thank you @Jgalt and @jmason. Resolved to today at 3:15pm EST based on the WSUA9 article.
I would not characterize 1,000 people being killed as a “slam dunk.” Please don’t forget the very real war these forecasts are about.
@metani I think this is a good question. @andymartin what do you think about specifying that ~90% of the scheduled events go forward in the res criteria, so that this doesn’t unsatisfyingly resolve on a technicality such as one or a few events getting canceled for unrelated reasons?
Looks like the Metaculus Prediction was substantially better than the recency-weighted median on this one – 30% vs. 47%.
@kgreene @aristophanes @FJehn @AngraMainyu @evanbd
Okay, I’m hearing from a majority of people that ‘European countries’ was interpreted as the continent of Europe, which is a valid interpretation.
Happy to use this guideline and clarify the definition in the question text.
One additional point. What do forecasters think about whether Turkey should count toward resolution?
@Mr_H The greater specificity is intended to be used in the case that say, part of the city is taken over. It’s an insurance policy against ambiguity in a partial outcome. Is there a specific reason you think this is potentially problematic?
The first American(s) have been killed in the Ukraine conflict.