Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.

We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.

Onward, Gaia

@(SimonM) 1. When it comes to Trump, I feel I can safely ignore base rates that describe the actions of previous Presidents. His actions are more guided by the norms of reality TV than political decorum and orthodoxy. 2. This is not a prediction about whether he will be the Republican nominee, but rather about whether he will run at all. @Jgalt has been posting links to interviews with Trump and his former staff that all strongly point to Trump running again. Trump said, “You’re going to be happy,” in answer to a recent question about whether he’ll r...

@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.

@Jgalt That may be... But this instruction does not apply to me. ;)

@qw2019 You’re a Ukrainian reserve officer? Have you been notified by the military that you need to be ready, or anything like that?

@Barbarossa Thanks for the link! I called the phone number listed and learned that FDA and IRB approvals have been given, which means they can begin recruiting participants. (The day the first participant is recruited seems to count as the day the trial starts.) According to the researcher, there is no particular reason to think that they will be delayed past their intended October start date.

I think the community is too low on this. What explanation could Trump give for deciding not to run? That Biden is doing a “good enough” job? That he has more important things to do? Given his recent and repeated comments, that seems unlikely. I suspect that he will:

  • run with the greatest possible fanfare
  • do everything in his power to reignite his most fervent base of supporters
  • centrally focus on criticizing and blaming Biden for the situation in Afghanistan

Given that there are 30 people living there now, only ~20 soft commitments from future residents, and only about ~600 people interested, reaching 1000 residents by year’s end seems vanishingly unlikely.

@(Uncle Jeff) A) Sorry to hear that you missed the beginning of this particular tournament. We currently share tournament launch information via our newsletter, social media, and discussion posts like this one. There will certainly be more tournaments, including one we’re very excited about that’s launching soon. Stay tuned! B) Since this tournament consists of 16 questions in total, this multi-city structure makes the most sense for now. If we have the opportunity to expand our transit forecasting, then dedicated tournaments for various cities could m...

@Jgalt welp, there goes the plan for our next sprint.

@krtnu Apologies, the source got lost in the shuffle of a couple rounds of edits on this question. I've added the relevant BTS link above.

The site lets you customize a table and download a CSV file with your selections. These are the relevant selections:

  • Geographic Area: Domestic
  • Schedule Type: Total
  • Service Class: Passenger
  • Operating Statistics: Departures Performed (Flights)

@HadiKhan @A_Guy Looking into this now, thanks for bringing it up (and sorry that you have in the past without getting a response).

Since yesterday the Metaculus Prediction has increased from 73% to 78%.

Updating my forecast upward based on the concession to allow Navalny to see non-prison physicians, and the continuing protests.

@havlickova.blanka The headline says 2023, but the question says 2024 – I assume 2023 is correct?

Thank you @Jgalt and @jmason. Resolved to today at 3:15pm EST based on the WSUA9 article.

Congratulations @casens and @beala, and welcome!

@michal_dubrawski, you ran an admirable campaign – hope to see your ticket in the next election :)

@metani I think this is a good question. @andymartin what do you think about specifying that ~90% of the scheduled events go forward in the res criteria, so that this doesn’t unsatisfyingly resolve on a technicality such as one or a few events getting canceled for unrelated reasons?

Hi @notany and @isinlor, this competition certainly isn't for everyone. Naturally, we would welcome with interest any additional questions you'd like to pose on the topic of AI. And I agree, @isinlor, that incentivizing good question-writing is definitely worth considering in the future. I also want to reiterate one of the points that @Tamay has made in his thoughtful response: it is a subtle and challenging task to select progress metrics that are likely to matter in 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 10+ years. Producing a rich dataset of forecasts ...