Thank you for the warm welcome @Anthony! It’s been an honor to work with this amazing team for the last year, and I’m excited to take things to the next level and help accelerate Metaculus’s growth in the years ahead.

We have some exciting updates and opportunities on the horizon, with much more to come, and I’m confident that we have what it takes to keep growing the platform and strengthening our reputation and position as an innovation leader in the forecasting industry.

Onward, Gaia

@RedBox Hi. Our community guidelines require that users keep their comments on the Metaculus platform civil and respectful and free from strong politics. We also ask that users avoid excessive editorializing and keep the focus on forecasting. Please consider this a reminder to respect these rules.

I downgraded my forecast yesterday to 45% and decided to wait until the fighting Sunday to update up or down, given Putin’s orders to “take Kyiv by Monday.”

Today, peace talks are announced. Shocking.

Nuclear alert is also announced. To the press. This is most likely Putin posturing to attempt to show he’s in control when he’s losing ground.

@TeeJayKay Serious discussion, no, not even internally. We are working on a mobile-first design that will make using Metaculus on mobile much easier, so the prioritization of an app is pretty unlikely for the next 12 months at least.

@Jgalt That may be... But this instruction does not apply to me. ;)

@rappatoni There’s a 70% chance we’ll build this feature at some point in the next two quarters.

Closing for now. We’ll resolve as estimates of troop numbers become available.

@Barbarossa Thanks for the link! I called the phone number listed and learned that FDA and IRB approvals have been given, which means they can begin recruiting participants. (The day the first participant is recruited seems to count as the day the trial starts.) According to the researcher, there is no particular reason to think that they will be delayed past their intended October start date.

There have been a number of public comments about SWIFT being most likely off the table.

Given that there are 30 people living there now, only ~20 soft commitments from future residents, and only about ~600 people interested, reaching 1000 residents by year’s end seems vanishingly unlikely.

An excellent primer from [NPR](, worth reading in its entirety. Some of the highlights: - Incidence of monkeypox has, ironically, risen from less than 1 case per 10,000 people to about 14 cases per 10,000 people, in part due to the eradication of smallpox since the vaccines for smallpox were protective for monkeypox and are now used much less frequently - Monkeypox and smallpox are "clinically indistinguishable," so it'...

@RedBox @alwaysrinse @exmateriae Hi. 8:53pm Pacific time on February 23 and 4:53am GMT on February 24 are the same time. Our system requires that question resolutions must be done in the local timezone of the admin performing the resolution. We're taking a moment to validate that there are no issues in our data model that would cause problems and then will re-resolve.

@(Uncle Jeff) A) Sorry to hear that you missed the beginning of this particular tournament. We currently share tournament launch information via our newsletter, social media, and discussion posts like this one. There will certainly be more tournaments, including one we’re very excited about that’s launching soon. Stay tuned! B) Since this tournament consists of 16 questions in total, this multi-city structure makes the most sense for now. If we have the opportunity to expand our transit forecasting, then dedicated tournaments for various cities could m...

@krtnu Apologies, the source got lost in the shuffle of a couple rounds of edits on this question. I've added the relevant BTS link above.

The site lets you customize a table and download a CSV file with your selections. These are the relevant selections:

  • Geographic Area: Domestic
  • Schedule Type: Total
  • Service Class: Passenger
  • Operating Statistics: Departures Performed (Flights)

@HadiKhan @A_Guy Looking into this now, thanks for bringing it up (and sorry that you have in the past without getting a response).

Since yesterday the Metaculus Prediction has increased from 73% to 78%.

Thank you @Jgalt and @jmason. Resolved to today at 3:15pm EST based on the WSUA9 article.

I would not characterize 1,000 people being killed as a “slam dunk.” Please don’t forget the very real war these forecasts are about.