Germany only supports “targeted partial SWIFT cutoff”. Not sure how this would resolve..
@qumidium While I updated on specific annexation question on this evidence, resolution here explicitly excludes Transnistria
For the purpose of this question, the addition of troops to Transnistria will not trigger positive resolution as troops have been present in that region since before the beginning of the recent conflict in February 2022.
Russia has moved blood supplies and field hospitals to the border.
@casens The Georgia combat interrupted another China-hosted Olympics, which makes this concern more poignant.
A stronger constraint is Putin plans to attend opening ceremony Feb 4, very unlikely he would launch an attack while out of the country.
To my mind, the China tact argument (Feb 4-20) counterbalances the generalized mud argument (~Mar 1- Oct).
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NATO General secretary Stoltenberg: Cyberattacks "can trigger Article 5.
Omicron antibody neutralization is very high, direct evidence that R0 is lower than Delta. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/146607680594…
Another public figure prediction: Rubio claims that Armenia and Moldova are next. @christian just fyi
On March 9, Ukraine claimed that Russia has not ruled out sending 800 troops to Transnistria.
Dmitri Alperovitch says "Now that the invasion is slowly grounding into a stalemate, it makes sense that Kremlin would start focusing its attention on the West and thinking through retaliation options for sanctions. Cyber is absolutely one of those. Europe and US are in the crosshairs".
He was one of the first to correctly predict invasion, back in Nov.
Two signals: Russian troops moving into Belarus, and quiet evacuation of Russian embassy.
Adam Tooze persuasively argues that impact of sanctions will be relatively muted if Russia switches to a less conservative (Keynesian) policy. And also that Russian growth has stalled not from gas prices but their conservative/austerity policies.
I wonder what to make of the "political football" argument. It goes something like
SWIFT is politically popular but diplomatically toxic. Biden attributed SWIFT veto of Germany/Italy, but those countries don't want the political ramifications. So they'll keep shifting the SWIFT rationale until a politically suitable excuse is found.
I haven't seen any experts make this argument, but idk it struck me as plausible enough to downgrade my estimate 5%. Consilient with the expert narrative "SWIFT is red herring" seen from Adam Tooze writeup at least.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
I wonder how your valid scenarios would be evaluated. Maybe TRUE for plane crash, FALSE for hospitals..?
@Jgalt Worth noting the White House vigorously denies this leak, claiming Biden didn’t speak of sacking & framed it as a “distinct possibility”.