Seeing it first hand, I'm french. I went from 5%, which was a bit low, to 11% with her being in the 2nd round. Melenchon was very close so there was a real possibility for her to lose in the 1st round, which made me go so low at first. Macron is very disliked by a big chunk of the electors (I would say about 40%) but there is the same feeling about MLP from even more people. She is still seen as far right by a lot of french. Some will prefer the lesser of two evils but I do believe that this time less people will vote in order to block MLP. I cannot un...

@evanbd FWIW I'm from Europe (and the EU) and I would have never considered that "countries from Europe" would mean only those from the European Union. Beyond this, I don't think that excluding around 20 countries 10 days after the start would be very fair.

That being said, it's indeed important to know if we're talking about geographical Europe (almost 50 countries) or more "cultural" Europe. Georgia, Azerbaidjan, Armenia, Turkey or Cyprus are troublesome.

— edited by exmateriae

For those unaware, there have been major developments in December. Most important thing, the main right party, "Les Républicains" (which was UMP or RPR before) had their primary and chose Valérie Pécresse to represent them. The runner-up, Eric Ciotti is of the radical part of the party and may attract some far right votes because he will have an important place if Pécresse wins. To me, she is the biggest threat to Macron if she accesses the second turn : her party has been for a very long time the main french party (5 of the 8 french presidents came fr...

I saw today that the several forecasts under the forecast you're looking at (not sure if it's clear) now show not only the community prediction but also your own. This is great. There have been so many little (and some not so little) additions to the website recently, it's great so I wanted to write a message to thank the team.

Is this me or we can't see the prediction scoring anymore? Outside of that, the notify me button and the circle to see the time remaining on a question are awesome additions.

Thanks for everything and good luck for all the questions you're about to resolve ! I'm getting the notifications for the forecasts about to close, I found one I forgot for a year (price of eth). This is going to cost me a lot of points but I remembered that we can you use tachyons to unmake a prediction. How do I do this ?

It's almost frightening how fast this has gone down... It went from 2047 to 2028 in less than a year.

So there are no candidates? I really do not have the time (finally becoming a PhD in a month) but I think I could be apprehensive about what would be expected.

I guess I'm not the only one so maybe mods could talk a bit about their experience?

Prediction : 1% I'm French. This is pretty much the political spectrum of candidates with 4% or more: (left to right) Melenchon (9-11%) - Roussel (3-4%) - Jadot (5-7%) - Taubira+Hidalgo (5-6%) - Macron (24-26%) - Pecresse (15-17%) - Le Pen (17-18%) - Zemmour (14-15%) Macron is the center so you can see there is ~25% of the votes on the left and ~50% on the right but with one less main candidate. This means it's very likely that the 2nd round will be Macron vs one of the three on the right and the bar should be around 16-17% to go to the second round. ...

@perdana in the first round I found it really nice as I knew the groups. Now, it's not as good.

@casens I love group questions but I earned more than 500 points with these... Shouldn't we receive less points on questions from the group were everybody has always been between 1-2%? In the end it's only internet points but I feel like so many is a bit undeserved, I don't know if I'm the only one ?

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Maybe this is niche or already asked but it would be very useful to people who forecast on a lot of questions : the option to search with exclusions beyond "my participation". For example, by date of last prediction or by resolve date. This way I could for instance order by soonest to resolve AND at the same time exclude all forecasts where I updated less than X weeks/days ago. I thought about this while updating a lot of forecasts and I have to load so many questions that I have already updated, every time I come back. Ordering by oldest prediction is ...

I have been updating everything since the beginning of the month, this is going to help me greatly! Thanks!

@NavinF What if the game does release on October 4 2022? Would this resolve ambiguous since the earliest date we can forecast is december 31 2022?

This may also occur if any state enforces such a ban, and the ban is not challenged by courts.

Just to be sure, let's say there is such a ban and a couple is forbidden to wed but the next day they ask the Supreme Court to overrule it. This would not count as yes unless the SC said the ban was ok?

What if there is such a ban on December 21 2029 and the Supreme Court only decides in 2030? Does this resolve ambiguous?

Canada is out with two losses. Croatia and Morocco both have 4 points in their group.…

@j.m. only 1 person had made a prediction at that time though. When there were more, it jumped to 2039 (not 41 sure but much closer)