It looks like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have all announced they have stopped buying gas: https://www.barrons.com/news/baltic-states-st…
I suspect we need more details on payments before resolution, but if it holds up I think the announcement portion has likely been met.
I think a plausible form of escalation would be a test (or demonstration) of a nuclear weapon by Russia. I don't see such a question. Basically something analogous to this one:
Is that something that other predictors would find useful? End date of before 2023, another for during 2023?
@acubri This seems like it argues for an ambiguous resolution, not a "no" resolution. Are you assuming that Trump will both be the Republican nominee, and also barred from holding office? I'm interpreting the question as being conditional on, among other things, Trump not being found guilty and barred from holding office by then.
"This question will resolve positively if there is an announcement by the US-recognized government of Ukraine indicating Zelensky is no longer the president"
Which direction is a positive resolution? This seems to conflict with the question wording.
Does Metaculus have a standard definition of "Europe"? Is this about European Union countries, or is it broader? Does it include the UK? Who else?
I've seen a few reports that the UK might stop buying Russian fossil fuels.
@kievalet I read the Barron's article and this from Al Jazeera as saying all the Baltic states have stopped:
“Since April 1st, Russian natural gas is no longer flowing to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania,” he told Latvian radio, adding that the Baltic market was currently being served by gas reserves stored underground in Latvia.
But I've only seen the official government statement from Lithuania.
The obvious followup question is: will he get banned again?
Flight 34 tests out software updates for autonomous hazard avoidance on landing.
This means more flexible flight plans, which may mean more usage. OTOH, it demonstrates continued use as a capability test bed and experimental platform, which probably implies continued willingness to take risks.
No updates from me on this one for now, though I'm leaving towards more rapid flights. If that pans out over the next couple months I'll update higher.
I'd love to see more stuff on the near-term space industry. Any or all of these would be interesting for the year 2022, IMHO. (And repeated for 2023, etc.)
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@Gaia I like this approach. I don't see any reason any of these questions need to resolve urgently. Giving a clear indication of sources currently under consideration and what the plan is removes any worry about people reading too much into a slow resolution.
Thank you for posting this.
@ugandamaximum If it's an oversight, then IMHO the right approach is to attempt to learn how to write better questions next time, and possibly re-launch the question in a new form after this one resolves.
Lots of things happen in ways you didn't expect, for reasons you don't expect. Writing good forecasting questions is tricky, and changing the question when we don't like how events unfolded is a lot like losing a bet but claiming you "really won" or something.
We should acknowledge the result, and do better next time.
@Sylvain Yeah, it probably could have been. Sorry about that.
I think a longer-dated version of this question, or "when will Ukraine regain control", might be interesting at this point.
Questions I'd like to see: