@casens To see this in my inbox:
"Metaculus Notifications <notifications\@mg2.metaculus.com>
Resolved: Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
Was probably the scariest moment of the whole year to me.
Russia told their diplomatic staff at their Ukraine embassy to leave the country. Source from Russian State Media
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The Professional Superforecasters of Good judgment are now at 59%.
@ethanbas Why not? To answer seriously, because assigning 99% implies that you put this prediction in a class of 100 predictions of which you are wrong in only one of them. It's incredibly unlikely that you could create such a class for predictions on world events, and especially not for political world events.
@akarlin I think that in a world where they don't intend to invade they have every incentive to give the appearance that they are about to do so, including removing diplomats. This doesn't update me.
The Professional Superforecasters of Good judgment are at 56%.
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I lost 4 points but I'm not even mad.
@eibbett I don't think that his disagreement with Twitter's far left on Israel and the BDS movement has any significant effect on his chances of being elected, indeed, he merely endorses a very mainstream view, see for example: German parliament condemns 'anti-Semitic' BDS movement. On the other hand, I would have significantly lowered his chances of being elected if he had aligned himself with Twitter's far left on this issue.
I would be interested in the reasoning of people who think that the odds are under 50% based on the information available
I think over 85% is probably overconfident and under 65% probably underconfident.
Knowing how over-regulated the EU is I very much doubt it. I’ll start with 15% based on the odds of countries like Estonia doing it.
@Jgalt That seems very significant, I update to 80% from 75% on that alone.
Good Judgment’s Professional Superforecasters are now at 63% for NO invasion before 31 May 2022. (For the record, I'm at 75% for a positive resolution of this Metaculus question.)
@BrunoYammine A minor point but “he said, she said” would imply that both parties have similar credibility, but I don’t think that’s accurate. If the West says that Russia isn’t pulling back its troops and Russia says that actually it is, the thing we learn is that Russia thinks that falsely claiming to do so is in its interest.
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@RedBox Nothing has changed strategically because of Russian military modernization, the US would not go to war with Russia in the 90s because of nuclear weapons and will not go to war today for the same reason. Their conventional military forces are totally irrelevant.