If I take a few hundred isolated but healthy hunter gatherers, provide them the Raven's matrices test (which they have no understanding of really because they've never been exposed to such patterns), then train them on it for the next 30 days and administer the test again resulting in a 30+ point rise for at least 200 of them, will this question resolve as a "yes"?
The question's wording doesn't seem to depend on an actual working IQ intervention.
— edited by equationist
I'm surprised that the community prediction for this question is 13 percentage points lower than the question about Kharkiv: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10056/rus…
If Russia manages to capture Kharkiv then it will almost certainly have also retained control of Kherson and gained control and retained control of Mariupol at that point, so there shouldn't be such a large discrepancy between predictions on the two questions.
I've been predicting a Russian invasion for a long while (was at 60% a few months ago, and rising to 75% in recent times). Now I'm at 90%. Russia clearly intends to invade. The 10% doubt is to account for the possibility of last minute diplomacy with Ukrainian acquiescence to Russian demands that prevents an invasion.
As defined, the most likely way these criteria would be met is not via an actual war but merely via some minor skirmish between coast guard vessels.
Russia can no longer use its reserves in US banks to pay for sovereign debts.
I've updated my prediction to less than half chances based on the likelihood that the Russians will prefer encirclement and prolonged siege (after cutting off the supply of weaponry) while capturing desired territory across the rest of Ukraine.
I don't expect Russia to use any prohibited chemical weapon (doing so would have no military value and would backfire strategically). However, I do believe that given the incentives involved, there is a high chance of a false flag chemical attack, or simply the fabrication of a chemical attack, and that this would likely trigger positive resolution of the question, either through two heads of state on the security council (Biden and Boris Johnson for example), or through 6 of the media sources asserting Russia's use of chemical weaponry.
Main reason for this to resolve "no" would likely be that the Iran nuclear deal falls through and Iran tests a nuclear bomb, resulting in sanctions. Not sure what the chances are that Iran would get sanctioned more than Russian in that case.
@Cato If bondholders get paid in Rubles, they recuperate their money (and so it doesn't need get priced into implied default risk), but it gets classified as a default.
Kherson was captured, Mariupol is encircled where the Azov battalion is holed up and refuses to let civilians leave. Assuming Mariupol is captured by the Russians (which won't be easy without heavy civilian casualties), that leaves one more city - Kharkiv is the one they're closest to currently, but Odessa seems plausible too. Kyiv will be a slog.