@cmeinel These are just the same Institute for the Study of War (ISW) people who repeat uncritically whatever the Ukrainians are saying. So I don't trust it too much. There are two sides who produce propaganda in this war.

Filter by Pending status for authored questions. I often submit questions, unfortunately, some are stuck in Pending forever, and can be hard to find. I found that "Open" includes pending, despite them not being open, so one can use "authored" and "open" to find them provided one wants to scroll a lot.

@(D0TheMath) I believe IA allows people to request to delete archives and they comply with these (e.g., [see this guide](https://www.joshualowcock.com/tips-tricks/how-to-delete-your-site-from-the-internet-archive-wayback-machine-archive-org/)). The other site does not do this. This is also why, I think, that site is censored by Twitter, Facebook and some other sites (that's why it keep changing its domain name). So I guess it means that Andrew Glidden filed a request to IA to remove this tweet from their archives. I don't know how to update my predictio...
@(Jgalt) This kind of thing was also seen in several Nordic protests. In Denmark, we intercepted some from Sweden and Germany at least once to prevent the inflow of a large set of left-wing protesters adding to a local riot or violent demonstration. There seems to be a small cluster of extremist protestors in many regions, and they travel around to keep attending the latest events. Here's a newspaper report from 2006 where 90 foreigners were arrested by Danish police, and 15 were banned re-entry for 12 months. https://www.avisen.dk/15-udenlandske-demon...

@fianxu No one disparaged anyone here. I suggest you don't make these questions if you are going to censor discussion of the relevant data (intelligence gaps explain more racial gaps in social outcomes). Here, you even deleted the most relevant historical data of unemployment gaps.

— edited by emilowk

With one day to go before closing, I am reviewing evidence and making a final prediction. My priors: 1) Trump admin. is pretty incompetent, and has said many things they never did, meaning this could be another example, 2) Trump admin. does not like China, so maybe they will make good on this one threat, 3) Trump admin. does not have that much time left, and will presumably shift attention to election in November, 4) Trump admin. will probably face PR issues if they move forwards, but maybe they don't care. So, all in all, lukewarm and undecided. Googlin...

@Jgalt Only the actual homicide charge counts. Good question though.

@AXH It's mainly just guessing at whether the next boom will occur before start of 2025. That is about 2.5 years from now. Seems somewhat low chance as the time between booms is longer than that historically.

@(2e10e122) Technically speaking, Genomic Prediction uses microarrays, not sequencing, for their polygenic scores. It doesn't matter for this discussion, but these are different technologies. Selecting against Down syndrome falls under karyotyping, i.e., determining the number of chromosomes. This also works against a number of other chromosomal disorders that cause very low intelligence. trisomy 13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patau_syndrome trisomy 18 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwards_syndrome, and partial or complex copy number issues like https...

@moderators @silly For the purpose of this question, when was "Actually this went live a few days ago but just now getting around to updating this thread"?

— edited by emilowk

@(casens) See the thread from December https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/#comment-74769. It's unclear whether the Dobbs case will result in positive resolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization Supposing it finds in favor of Dobbs, then states have some leeway in restrictions, which is a break with Roe precedent. Viability seems to be 24 weeks (legally anyway) according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetal_viability, and Dobbs is about a "2018 Mississippi ...

@dan I think the way forward here is to have 3 categories of questions:

  1. Public ranked. These are questions submitted to the mods for use in the public forecasting tournament.
  2. Public unranked. These are questions that are public, but which mods don't interfere with, and the points are not counted towards the tournament rankings.
  3. Private unranked. Same as above, but only visible to self + specified users.

@Jgalt That's right. If he takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, it resolves negatively.

@exmateriae I would interpret that as positive resolution.

@Jgalt Updating to 36% based on this

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

Question phrasing is somewhat suboptimal. To be dominant, one just needs to be the largest, but this requires positively only in the case of >50%. The USD could be far dominant at say 45% if all the others are <5% (just hypothetical).

Closing soon, seems no one has followed this one for about 10 months. I looked at Wikipedia, which shows Ninja is still far ahead of #2. 17.5 vs. 11.9 M.


Trump orders federal agencies to shut down their teaching of Critical Race Theory. [Tweeting](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1302212909808971776): >Trump Orders Purge of ‘Critical Race Theory‘ from Federal Agencies https://breitbart.com/tech/2020/09/04/partys-over-trump-orders-purge-of-critical-race-theory-from-federal-agencies/ via @BreitbartNews >This is a sickness that cannot be allowed to continue. Please report any sightings so we can quickly extinguish! I am wondering how we can make a question out of this. The actual [whitehouse lega...