@Sylvain Wait, so you mean if Russian agents poison some random Ukrainian like they killed previous enemies of the state (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Al…), this resolves positively? That's not a normal reading. I think the normal reading is Russia doing something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemical_…

— edited by emilowk

@BrunoParga Metaculus is not part of this conflict so their request doesn't matter, and is pointless as Russians can surely find that information somewhere other than Metaculus.

@silly They don't always. But this way, the ability to predict months into the future is tested, whereas when they don't close until they resolve, they are not testing this long term prediction to the same extent as people will know they can update later. In many real world situations, long term predictions are needed for actions which cannot be changed easily later (e.g. business deals).

I guess resolution of this is mainly based on guessing what sources the admins will close it with. If one relies on Ukrainian numbers that include estimates, likely the value could rise to 100k by end of year. If one uses anything else, then probably not. So will the admins use Ukrainian estimated numbers and include civilians? Who can say? Wish I didn't forecast on this question with unclear resolution criterion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_in…

@(Jgalt) The online reaction to this footage seems very favorable to the defendant. The main thing, as I see it, is that the famous I can't breathe line was actually uttered many times before he was on the ground, before the knee on his neck. My understanding of the popular media narrative is that police essentially caused him to suffocate to death by the knee placement, while he was saying he couldn't breathe. But we now see that he was saying that all along even when not restrained much at all. Clearly, he was saying this for some other reason, presuma...

@oracleofferentari I don't think site administration should be taking sides in such conflicts.

@Jgalt This outlet increasing reads as a Ukrainian propaganda machine. Russia has been making steady gains all along. Mariupol will fall momentarily, Kharkiv and Chernihiv are besieged. Ukraine does better than expected, but it is not winning by any means.

That said, I am at 1% for this question.

As the question maker, I intended for this to resolve positively with a pardon but I guess I got the legal details incorrect. Lesson to self is to explicitly handle edge cases...

@silly I hereby add a 100 US bounty for this feature, meaning I will donate 100 US to Metaculus whenever it is online and devs can share it as they deem fair.

@casens Good point. Yes, I had in a mind a healthy-looking newborn. We could stipulate it needs to survive at least some time span. We could say a year, that's a pretty conservative threshold, maybe 3 months is more sensible. From what I can tell, elephants have a life expectancy of 40-60 years in the wild. Apparently, captive elephants don't live very long, mean of 17 years only!, which is odd. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/ar…

— edited by emilowk

@EMP Resolve condition does not depend on any falling, just the presence of Russian military control of the districts of Kyiv. If Ukraine surrenders, and Russians drive in afterwards to take control, this will resolve positively despite the peace.

New poll, same results: https://nypost.com/2021/03/09/andrew-yang-tops-democratic-candidates-for-nyc-mayor-poll/ Andrew Yang is the leading contender among a crowded field of candidates in the Democratic primary race for mayor, according to a new poll. Yang was the top pick to lead the Big Apple for 32 percent of the 644 likely Democratic voters who responded to a WPIX-TV/NewsNation/Emerson College poll that was released Monday. Behind Yang, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams was the second top candidate, according to the poll, garnering 19 percent...
[For the rankings/high scoreboard](https://www.metaculus.com/rankings/?timeframe=resolved), there is already functionality in place to limit the time span of the questions, thus controlling for time spent. It would be nice if there was a column with average points per question. Right now, the top points earners in some period are people who spent a lot of time predicting on questions. Using the average score gain in some time period is an easy solution to this confounder. It would also be nice if it showed the number of resolved questions per person (as ...
Not remotely close for Italy in July poll: [How likely are the 'big four' European economies to vote to leave the EU if Brexit works out?](https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/10/nearly-half-of-italians-would-support-leaving-the-eu-if-brexit-is-successful-according-to): 43% stay vs. 31% leave (26% undecided). [Screenshot-from-2020-10-14-23-10-30.png](https://postimg.cc/3kP6mKck) Seems a lot of people estimated higher probability here based on the Italian result, but since it is now clearly no longer looking like that, my 3% probability seems more accurate....

Ability to compare own performance to other users who answered specific questions. For instance, if I have 5 resolved questions, I want to know my comparative performance on these questions, not the 1000s of other questions other users have answered (not strictly comparable to mine, only asymptotically under some conditions). Similarly, would be interesting to see performance on questions only from some time period.

For relative performance, nothing really beats being shown the distribution of accuracies, so one can see one's centile.

I made a formal model to project this, [seen here](https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1291433844088897536) ([details on rpubs.com](https://rpubs.com/EmilOWK/HDI_timesries)). The trends for countries are very close to linear, and if we give each country their own slope, we get a well fitting model. If we project with this to 2030, China will be at 0.89 HDI with a quite small prediction interval. Most of the uncertainty probably comes from the question of how nonlinear the Chinese growth pattern will be, and it could be tapering off soon, and might ...

US actuarial table to forecast death within a year. Data from all Americans and from 2016 data, so roughly applicable here.

If we look up at 58 woman, the chance of death in a year is 0.6%. Since we are forecasting about 0.5 year, this then becomes about 0.3%. The current median forecast is 90% chance of survival, meaning 10% chance of death. So the forecast death chance is 10/.03 = 33.3x relative risk! Seems like this is too much added risk. I was at 90% but I will move to 95%.

@Joker "50k Russian Military Deaths by 2024", 2024, not 2022. By your method: 560 days until 2024 * 133 = 74480.

— edited by emilowk

This comment was originally posted on 50,000

@Based Hence why the question here is highly misleading, as their TOS allows them to cancel anyone for any reason at any time, so the question basically cannot resolve positively.

Given that the sharing private question feature is now live, I would like to suggest the follow up expansion feature: organizations. I am pretty sure I have seen this feature on a competitor's site, https://www.maby.app/pricing/. At least, I think so. I think of the feature like this: - Allow users to create organizations. - Organizations are invisible to public search. - Organization admins can invite users to their organizations. If they accept, all organization private questions are shown to them. - Organizations have their own admins/moderators and...