@silly They don't always. But this way, the ability to predict months into the future is tested, whereas when they don't close until they resolve, they are not testing this long term prediction to the same extent as people will know they can update later. In many real world situations, long term predictions are needed for actions which cannot be changed easily later (e.g. business deals).
As the question maker, I intended for this to resolve positively with a pardon but I guess I got the legal details incorrect. Lesson to self is to explicitly handle edge cases...
@silly I hereby add a 100 US bounty for this feature, meaning I will donate 100 US to Metaculus whenever it is online and devs can share it as they deem fair.
@casens Good point. Yes, I had in a mind a healthy-looking newborn. We could stipulate it needs to survive at least some time span. We could say a year, that's a pretty conservative threshold, maybe 3 months is more sensible. From what I can tell, elephants have a life expectancy of 40-60 years in the wild. Apparently, captive elephants don't live very long, mean of 17 years only!, which is odd. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/ar…
— edited by emilowk
Ability to compare own performance to other users who answered specific questions. For instance, if I have 5 resolved questions, I want to know my comparative performance on these questions, not the 1000s of other questions other users have answered (not strictly comparable to mine, only asymptotically under some conditions). Similarly, would be interesting to see performance on questions only from some time period.
For relative performance, nothing really beats being shown the distribution of accuracies, so one can see one's centile.
US actuarial table to forecast death within a year. Data from all Americans and from 2016 data, so roughly applicable here.
If we look up at 58 woman, the chance of death in a year is 0.6%. Since we are forecasting about 0.5 year, this then becomes about 0.3%. The current median forecast is 90% chance of survival, meaning 10% chance of death. So the forecast death chance is 10/.03 = 33.3x relative risk! Seems like this is too much added risk. I was at 90% but I will move to 95%.
Filter by Pending status for authored questions. I often submit questions, unfortunately, some are stuck in Pending forever, and can be hard to find. I found that "Open" includes pending, despite them not being open, so one can use "authored" and "open" to find them provided one wants to scroll a lot.
@Jgalt Only the actual homicide charge counts. Good question though.
@dan I think the way forward here is to have 3 categories of questions: