@Sylvain Wait, so you mean if Russian agents poison some random Ukrainian like they killed previous enemies of the state (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Al…), this resolves positively? That's not a normal reading. I think the normal reading is Russia doing something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemical_…
— edited by emilowk
I guess resolution of this is mainly based on guessing what sources the admins will close it with. If one relies on Ukrainian numbers that include estimates, likely the value could rise to 100k by end of year. If one uses anything else, then probably not. So will the admins use Ukrainian estimated numbers and include civilians? Who can say? Wish I didn't forecast on this question with unclear resolution criterion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_in…
@BrunoParga Metaculus is not part of this conflict so their request doesn't matter, and is pointless as Russians can surely find that information somewhere other than Metaculus.
@silly They don't always. But this way, the ability to predict months into the future is tested, whereas when they don't close until they resolve, they are not testing this long term prediction to the same extent as people will know they can update later. In many real world situations, long term predictions are needed for actions which cannot be changed easily later (e.g. business deals).
@oracleofferentari I don't think site administration should be taking sides in such conflicts.
@Jgalt This outlet increasing reads as a Ukrainian propaganda machine. Russia has been making steady gains all along. Mariupol will fall momentarily, Kharkiv and Chernihiv are besieged. Ukraine does better than expected, but it is not winning by any means.
That said, I am at 1% for this question.
As the question maker, I intended for this to resolve positively with a pardon but I guess I got the legal details incorrect. Lesson to self is to explicitly handle edge cases...
@silly I hereby add a 100 US bounty for this feature, meaning I will donate 100 US to Metaculus whenever it is online and devs can share it as they deem fair.
@casens Good point. Yes, I had in a mind a healthy-looking newborn. We could stipulate it needs to survive at least some time span. We could say a year, that's a pretty conservative threshold, maybe 3 months is more sensible. From what I can tell, elephants have a life expectancy of 40-60 years in the wild. Apparently, captive elephants don't live very long, mean of 17 years only!, which is odd. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/ar…
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@EMP Resolve condition does not depend on any falling, just the presence of Russian military control of the districts of Kyiv. If Ukraine surrenders, and Russians drive in afterwards to take control, this will resolve positively despite the peace.
Question phrasing is somewhat suboptimal. To be dominant, one just needs to be the largest, but this requires positively only in the case of >50%. The USD could be far dominant at say 45% if all the others are <5% (just hypothetical).
Ability to compare own performance to other users who answered specific questions. For instance, if I have 5 resolved questions, I want to know my comparative performance on these questions, not the 1000s of other questions other users have answered (not strictly comparable to mine, only asymptotically under some conditions). Similarly, would be interesting to see performance on questions only from some time period.
For relative performance, nothing really beats being shown the distribution of accuracies, so one can see one's centile.
US actuarial table to forecast death within a year. Data from all Americans and from 2016 data, so roughly applicable here.
If we look up at 58 woman, the chance of death in a year is 0.6%. Since we are forecasting about 0.5 year, this then becomes about 0.3%. The current median forecast is 90% chance of survival, meaning 10% chance of death. So the forecast death chance is 10/.03 = 33.3x relative risk! Seems like this is too much added risk. I was at 90% but I will move to 95%.
@Joker "50k Russian Military Deaths by 2024", 2024, not 2022. By your method: 560 days until 2024 * 133 = 74480.
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This comment was originally posted on 50,000
@Based Hence why the question here is highly misleading, as their TOS allows them to cancel anyone for any reason at any time, so the question basically cannot resolve positively.