elspeth (1) What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

the problem is that many individuals are suspended after they're gone (that is, they've been left warm for several hours). my impression is that alcor is slightly more likely to do this than the cryonics institute.

elspeth (1) How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?

i still find it amusing that questions like these can be arbitraged by using more concentrated distributions.

elspeth (1) Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < \$1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?

other than making the resolution easier, is there any reason to frame this question in terms of the bet between hanson and tybarrok?

elspeth (1) How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

What is the point of having a question that resolves ambiguously if zero weapons are used?

elspeth (1) Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?

@Uncle Jeff unfortunately, rationality doesn't work that way. see steve jobs.

elspeth (1) Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?

@Jgalt it's not so much that we need a probability distribution, just probability estimates from each respondent (since there are only two outcomes) rather than a binary yes or no. in the latter scheme, everyone is going to answer yes if they think the probability is more than 50%.

elspeth (1) How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?

@krtnu i've updated my prediction to between 1.38 and 2.21. this is the result of a linear extrapolation on the log plot.

elspeth (1) Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?

Updated upward based on this interview:

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elspeth (1) Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?

@jabowery there is no true probability. either the question will resolve positive, or it won't.

elspeth (1) What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US\$?

my prediction is bimodal. 33% for < 50, 48% for > 100k.

elspeth (1) Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

a lot of my uncertainty comes from existential risk. should we condition on people still being around?

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elspeth (1) Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

@Matthew_Barnett there's an important qualitative difference between the two scenarios. in the former, we're alive and have most of what we want. in the latter, we're dead. i suspect that most of the disagreement lies in what a "winner takes most of the resources" scenario would actually look like. in that regard, i've been influenced by eric drexler's idea of paretotopia, as well as the observation that human beings have largely overlapping sets of values.

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elspeth (1) Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

this is weirdly problematic. given that the difference between so-called terrorist attacks and other mass killings is mainly one of connotation, why does the resolution of the question depend on the respective state authorities to arbitrate what counts and what doesn't?