First I estimate the likelihood of the experts winning on each of the 4 questions: 1.1: 98% (only need 19k more in last day, seems extremely likely) 1.2: 75% (number of weekly deaths only slightly down favors experts) 1.3: 80% (number of weekly deaths increased! favors experts more strongly) 1.4: 20% (expert's median seems very high, weekly deaths would have to increase for them to win which seems unlikely, and weekly deaths decreased this past week) I then calculate the likelihood of experts winning at least 3: .98 * .75 * .8 * .2 + .98 * .75 ...

Updated slightly up on https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/

Edit: updated up to 67% based on this forecast realizing that the question is based on number of gold medals.

Edit 2: updated up to 70% based on https://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/me…

— edited by elifland_ought

@alexrjl Why would they predict over-confidently on Metaculus, even if they did so in the surveys? The metaculus predictions have no bearing on the actual results if I understand correctly.

I predicted 20% based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-ele… having an 80% confidence interval for the popular vote spanning approximately 3 points in each direction for Trump and Biden.

I just realized that my conversion to the 20% forecast was based on a basic math error: if Biden under-performs by 2 points, then Trump over-performs by 2 points, and this resolves positively (technically there are a few 3rd-party votes but safe to mostly ignore those).

Oops.

— edited by elifland_ought

I'd like to see more predictions on the effects of social media. I am intuitively pretty sympathetic to a lot of the claims made by sources such as: * [Center for Humane Technology](https://www.humanetech.com/) * [Tristan Harris on the 80,000 hours podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/tristan-harris-changing-incentives-social-media/) * [The Social Dilemma](https://www.thesocialdilemma.com/) * [Digital Minimalism](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40672036-digital-minimalism) But, I'm wary of the rigor of the arguments made and would be ex...
[There are currently 593,807 reported deaths](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200718-covid-19-sitrep-180.pdf?sfvrsn=39b31718_2). With the current rate of ~5k deaths per day, we will end up at ~1.43M. I'm surprised that the community median is significantly below this. [Made an Elicit distribution](https://elicit.ought.org/builder/QPLQTyEb2) to assign very little probability to <600,000, and 17% (intuitive guesstimate) probability to <1.43M as I think the number of deaths per day will rise. [I work on Elicit.]...

I concur with those below in their praise of the track record updates. I particularly like the continuous calibration plots.

As I'm always hungry for more, it would be cool to have a feature where I can (pay tachyons to? or have both people consent to) compare my track record vs. a rival forecaster's track record, on questions that we have both predicted on.

— edited by elifland_ought

@Anthony I think we should wait until the spreadsheet is updated for today (as someone who would greatly benefit from resolving at 931,698).

Predicted using an Elicit distribution based on a few intuitive beliefs regarding the current target launch date of Oct 31, 2021.

[I work on Elicit.]

It's important to note that [the re-election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) doesn't close until 6 PM EST on Election night. Given this, I created an [Elicit distribution](https://elicit.ought.org/builder/sQh12Ohw0) based on factorizing the question into a few parts: - (A) Will the result of an election be a large victory for Biden, a close call, or a large victory for Trump? - (B) Given the Biden large victory possibility in (A), how clear will it be by 6 PM EST election night that it wil...

@Linch thanks for the comment, made me realize I was reading the question incorrectly and predicting when a 10% reduction would happen (which I think has happened already) rather than a reduction to 10%. I wonder if others made the same mistake.

— edited by elifland

I modified @rachbach@ought's script to [make one](https://github.com/uvafan/forecasting/blob/master/metaculus/4732/openai_extrapolation.py) which: * Starts in 2020 using [GPT-3's training compute](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=46) as a starting point * Re-estimates doubling time starting with AlexNet in 2012 up until GPT-3 in 2020 This gives an estimate of 3.04E10, after taking log10 that's 10.48. Note that the method I used for estimating the updated doubling time is crude and I think gives an overestimate (slower than OpenAI's, meaning ...

Significant mismatch between community prediction here and betting odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/CoronavirusAp… Edit: at the time of posting the community median here was approximately 500k, while EBO had >50% odds of >1M.

— edited by elifland

My forecast for this pair of questions. I estimated a ~10% difference based on whether Prop 22 is passed, basing off of an excerpt from this article:

Uber hasn't broken out how much of its rides or revenue comes from California, but told investors last year that its top 5 markets, which include Los Angeles and San Francisco, make up 23% of its total gross bookings.

## Reference class case amounts A comment from a superforecaster on [a related question](https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1439) that I found helpful for thinking about reference classes: > 23 Jul 21 - Comment: From the situation in Europe (which right now is roughly comparable to the US in vaccination rates), there are a few patterns that might be emerging and are worth noticing: (1) UK seems to be past the Delta peak, which has reached about 75-80% the size of the previous peak. (2) Netherlands might have also passed the Delta peak, which seems...

@james.jj.barry Agreed. It looks like the the 5th percentile for the current forecast (which is part of the report) is at approximately 1,470 deaths, which seems quite low, given that there are currently 1,328 deaths. The 142 deaths required for this in the next 18 days is less than the 172 which have occurred in the last 5 days.

Update: 1,405 deaths have now been reported on http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/ (COVID Tracker's source). The community 5th percentile is still in the high 1,400s.

— edited by elifland

YouGov: When it comes to how registered voters plan to vote...

  • 39% plan to vote in person on election day
  • 19% plan to vote in person before the election
  • 39% plan to vote by mail

(I copied this comment from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5053/what…)

My forecast is much more bullish than the community on hitting the 20k mark relatively soon. Maybe this is due to people not updating on the 17,000 mark having been broken in June?