Updated slightly up on https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/
Edit: updated up to 67% based on this forecast realizing that the question is based on number of gold medals.
Edit 2: updated up to 70% based on https://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/me…
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@alexrjl Why would they predict over-confidently on Metaculus, even if they did so in the surveys? The metaculus predictions have no bearing on the actual results if I understand correctly.
I predicted 20% based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-ele… having an 80% confidence interval for the popular vote spanning approximately 3 points in each direction for Trump and Biden.
I just realized that my conversion to the 20% forecast was based on a basic math error: if Biden under-performs by 2 points, then Trump over-performs by 2 points, and this resolves positively (technically there are a few 3rd-party votes but safe to mostly ignore those).
Oops.
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I concur with those below in their praise of the track record updates. I particularly like the continuous calibration plots.
As I'm always hungry for more, it would be cool to have a feature where I can (pay tachyons to? or have both people consent to) compare my track record vs. a rival forecaster's track record, on questions that we have both predicted on.
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@Anthony I think we should wait until the spreadsheet is updated for today (as someone who would greatly benefit from resolving at 931,698).
Predicted using an Elicit distribution based on a few intuitive beliefs regarding the current target launch date of Oct 31, 2021.
[I work on Elicit.]
@Linch thanks for the comment, made me realize I was reading the question incorrectly and predicting when a 10% reduction would happen (which I think has happened already) rather than a reduction to 10%. I wonder if others made the same mistake.
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PredictIt currently has ~58% chance of a vote before Nov 3.
Significant mismatch between community prediction here and betting odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/CoronavirusAp… Edit: at the time of posting the community median here was approximately 500k, while EBO had >50% odds of >1M.
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My forecast for this pair of questions. I estimated a ~10% difference based on whether Prop 22 is passed, basing off of an excerpt from this article:
Uber hasn't broken out how much of its rides or revenue comes from California, but told investors last year that its top 5 markets, which include Los Angeles and San Francisco, make up 23% of its total gross bookings.
@james.jj.barry Agreed. It looks like the the 5th percentile for the current forecast (which is part of the report) is at approximately 1,470 deaths, which seems quite low, given that there are currently 1,328 deaths. The 142 deaths required for this in the next 18 days is less than the 172 which have occurred in the last 5 days.
Update: 1,405 deaths have now been reported on http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/ (COVID Tracker's source). The community 5th percentile is still in the high 1,400s.
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YouGov: When it comes to how registered voters plan to vote...
(I copied this comment from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5053/what…)
My forecast is much more bullish than the community on hitting the 20k mark relatively soon. Maybe this is due to people not updating on the 17,000 mark having been broken in June?