### elifland_ought (7) Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?

First I estimate the likelihood of the experts winning on each of the 4 questions: 1.1: 98% (only need 19k more in last day, seems extremely likely) 1.2: 75% (number of weekly deaths only slightly down favors experts) 1.3: 80% (number of weekly deaths increased! favors experts more strongly) 1.4: 20% (expert's median seems very high, weekly deaths would have to increase for them to win which seems unlikely, and weekly deaths decreased this past week) I then calculate the likelihood of experts winning at least 3: .98 * .75 * .8 * .2 + .98 * .75 ...

### elifland_ought (6) Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?

Updated slightly up on https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/

Edit: updated up to 67% based on this forecast realizing that the question is based on number of gold medals.

Edit 2: updated up to 70% based on https://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/me…

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### elifland_ought (5) By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?

@alexrjl Why would they predict over-confidently on Metaculus, even if they did so in the surveys? The metaculus predictions have no bearing on the actual results if I understand correctly.

### elifland_ought (5) Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?

I predicted 20% based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-ele… having an 80% confidence interval for the popular vote spanning approximately 3 points in each direction for Trump and Biden.

I just realized that my conversion to the 20% forecast was based on a basic math error: if Biden under-performs by 2 points, then Trump over-performs by 2 points, and this resolves positively (technically there are a few 3rd-party votes but safe to mostly ignore those).

Oops.

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### elifland_ought (5) Predictions for 2021

I'd like to see more predictions on the effects of social media. I am intuitively pretty sympathetic to a lot of the claims made by sources such as: * [Center for Humane Technology](https://www.humanetech.com/) * [Tristan Harris on the 80,000 hours podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/tristan-harris-changing-incentives-social-media/) * [The Social Dilemma](https://www.thesocialdilemma.com/) * [Digital Minimalism](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40672036-digital-minimalism) But, I'm wary of the rigor of the arguments made and would be ex...

### elifland_ought (5) How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?

[There are currently 593,807 reported deaths](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200718-covid-19-sitrep-180.pdf?sfvrsn=39b31718_2). With the current rate of ~5k deaths per day, we will end up at ~1.43M. I'm surprised that the community median is significantly below this. [Made an Elicit distribution](https://elicit.ought.org/builder/QPLQTyEb2) to assign very little probability to <600,000, and 17% (intuitive guesstimate) probability to <1.43M as I think the number of deaths per day will rise. [I work on Elicit.]...

### elifland_ought (5) Platform update thread

I concur with those below in their praise of the track record updates. I particularly like the continuous calibration plots.

As I'm always hungry for more, it would be cool to have a feature where I can (pay tachyons to? or have both people consent to) compare my track record vs. a rival forecaster's track record, on questions that we have both predicted on.

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### elifland_ought (4) LRT 1.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, April 26th?

@Anthony I think we should wait until the spreadsheet is updated for today (as someone who would greatly benefit from resolving at 931,698).

### elifland_ought (4) When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?

Predicted using an Elicit distribution based on a few intuitive beliefs regarding the current target launch date of Oct 31, 2021.

[I work on Elicit.]

### elifland_ought (4) What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?

It's important to note that [the re-election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) doesn't close until 6 PM EST on Election night. Given this, I created an [Elicit distribution](https://elicit.ought.org/builder/sQh12Ohw0) based on factorizing the question into a few parts: - (A) Will the result of an election be a large victory for Biden, a close call, or a large victory for Trump? - (B) Given the Biden large victory possibility in (A), how clear will it be by 6 PM EST election night that it wil...

### elifland_ought (4) When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?

@Linch thanks for the comment, made me realize I was reading the question incorrectly and predicting when a 10% reduction would happen (which I think has happened already) rather than a reduction to 10%. I wonder if others made the same mistake.

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### elifland_ought (4) Amplified forecasting: What will Buck's informed prediction of compute used in the largest ML training run before 2030 be?

I modified @rachbach@ought's script to [make one](https://github.com/uvafan/forecasting/blob/master/metaculus/4732/openai_extrapolation.py) which: * Starts in 2020 using [GPT-3's training compute](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=46) as a starting point * Re-estimates doubling time starting with AlexNet in 2012 up until GPT-3 in 2020 This gives an estimate of 3.04E10, after taking log10 that's 10.48. Note that the method I used for estimating the updated doubling time is crude and I think gives an overestimate (slower than OpenAI's, meaning ...

### elifland_ought (3) [Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?

PredictIt currently has ~58% chance of a vote before Nov 3.

### elifland_ought (3) How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?

Significant mismatch between community prediction here and betting odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/CoronavirusAp… Edit: at the time of posting the community median here was approximately 500k, while EBO had >50% odds of >1M.

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### elifland_ought (3) If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?

My forecast for this pair of questions. I estimated a ~10% difference based on whether Prop 22 is passed, basing off of an excerpt from this article:

Uber hasn't broken out how much of its rides or revenue comes from California, but told investors last year that its top 5 markets, which include Los Angeles and San Francisco, make up 23% of its total gross bookings.

### elifland_ought (3) Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?

## Reference class case amounts A comment from a superforecaster on [a related question](https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1439) that I found helpful for thinking about reference classes: > 23 Jul 21 - Comment: From the situation in Europe (which right now is roughly comparable to the US in vaccination rates), there are a few patterns that might be emerging and are worth noticing: (1) UK seems to be past the Delta peak, which has reached about 75-80% the size of the previous peak. (2) Netherlands might have also passed the Delta peak, which seems...

### elifland_ought (3) LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?

@james.jj.barry Agreed. It looks like the the 5th percentile for the current forecast (which is part of the report) is at approximately 1,470 deaths, which seems quite low, given that there are currently 1,328 deaths. The 142 deaths required for this in the next 18 days is less than the 172 which have occurred in the last 5 days.

Update: 1,405 deaths have now been reported on http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/ (COVID Tracker's source). The community 5th percentile is still in the high 1,400s.

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### elifland_ought (3) What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?

• 39% plan to vote in person on election day
• 19% plan to vote in person before the election
• 39% plan to vote by mail

(I copied this comment from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5053/what…)

### elifland_ought (3) In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?

My forecast is much more bullish than the community on hitting the 20k mark relatively soon. Maybe this is due to people not updating on the 17,000 mark having been broken in June?