Updated slightly up on https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/
Edit: updated up to 67% based on this forecast realizing that the question is based on number of gold medals.
Edit 2: updated up to 70% based on https://www.topendsports.com/events/summer/me…
— edited by elifland_ought
@Fruo I’m not sure that prior really makes sense given the difference between continuing to be in a civil war and the start of a civil war. One that makes more sense to me is: of the ~240 years in which there wasn’t a civil war ongoing, a civil war started once. This gives a prior of 1/240=~0.4%
@alexrjl Why would they predict over-confidently on Metaculus, even if they did so in the surveys? The metaculus predictions have no bearing on the actual results if I understand correctly.
I predicted 20% based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-ele… having an 80% confidence interval for the popular vote spanning approximately 3 points in each direction for Trump and Biden.
I just realized that my conversion to the 20% forecast was based on a basic math error: if Biden under-performs by 2 points, then Trump over-performs by 2 points, and this resolves positively (technically there are a few 3rd-party votes but safe to mostly ignore those).
Oops.
— edited by elifland_ought
I used the SSA actuarial life table and adjusted the estimates slightly downward (since the Queen seems to be in fairly good health and has access to great care) to get a forecast for this. I used the percentiles from those calculations to make my forecast using Elicit. This also helped me put only 2% on her reign ending in the past (< Jun 2020), while the community has 6%.
[Disclaimer: I work on Elicit]
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I concur with those below in their praise of the track record updates. I particularly like the continuous calibration plots.
As I'm always hungry for more, it would be cool to have a feature where I can (pay tachyons to? or have both people consent to) compare my track record vs. a rival forecaster's track record, on questions that we have both predicted on.
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@Anthony I think we should wait until the spreadsheet is updated for today (as someone who would greatly benefit from resolving at 931,698).
According to the Wikipedia article, there were 23 in 2020.
Predicted using an Elicit distribution based on a few intuitive beliefs regarding the current target launch date of Oct 31, 2021.
[I work on Elicit.]
@Linch thanks for the comment, made me realize I was reading the question incorrectly and predicting when a 10% reduction would happen (which I think has happened already) rather than a reduction to 10%. I wonder if others made the same mistake.
— edited by elifland
PredictIt currently has ~58% chance of a vote before Nov 3.
Significant mismatch between community prediction here and betting odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/CoronavirusAp… Edit: at the time of posting the community median here was approximately 500k, while EBO had >50% odds of >1M.
— edited by elifland
My forecast for this pair of questions. I estimated a ~10% difference based on whether Prop 22 is passed, basing off of an excerpt from this article:
Uber hasn't broken out how much of its rides or revenue comes from California, but told investors last year that its top 5 markets, which include Los Angeles and San Francisco, make up 23% of its total gross bookings.