An assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2019 made in 1999 was just posted on LessWrong.
His predictions were found to be 52% false and 15% mostly false, compared to 32% false and 14% mostly false for predictions made for 2009 in 1999. This is helpful for determining the base rate for the reference class of Kurzweil's long-term predictions.
How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
@Fruo I’m not sure that prior really makes sense given the difference between continuing to be in a civil war and the start of a civil war. One that makes more sense to me is: of the ~240 years in which there wasn’t a civil war ongoing, a civil war started once. This gives a prior of 1/240=~0.4%
@alexrjl Why would they predict over-confidently on Metaculus, even if they did so in the surveys? The metaculus predictions have no bearing on the actual results if I understand correctly.
I predicted 20% based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-ele… having an 80% confidence interval for the popular vote spanning approximately 3 points in each direction for Trump and Biden.
I just realized that my conversion to the 20% forecast was based on a basic math error: if Biden under-performs by 2 points, then Trump over-performs by 2 points, and this resolves positively (technically there are a few 3rd-party votes but safe to mostly ignore those).
Oops.
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I used the SSA actuarial life table and adjusted the estimates slightly downward (since the Queen seems to be in fairly good health and has access to great care) to get a forecast for this. I used the percentiles from those calculations to make my forecast using Elicit. This also helped me put only 2% on her reign ending in the past (< Jun 2020), while the community has 6%.
[Disclaimer: I work on Elicit]
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I concur with those below in their praise of the track record updates. I particularly like the continuous calibration plots.
As I'm always hungry for more, it would be cool to have a feature where I can (pay tachyons to? or have both people consent to) compare my track record vs. a rival forecaster's track record, on questions that we have both predicted on.
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@Anthony I think we should wait until the spreadsheet is updated for today (as someone who would greatly benefit from resolving at 931,698).
Predicted using an Elicit distribution based on a few intuitive beliefs regarding the current target launch date of Oct 31, 2021.
[I work on Elicit.]
@Linch thanks for the comment, made me realize I was reading the question incorrectly and predicting when a 10% reduction would happen (which I think has happened already) rather than a reduction to 10%. I wonder if others made the same mistake.
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It would be nice to have the option to receive an e-mail when the community prediction on a question you made has changed by a large amount and you haven't updated your own, rather than only receiving an e-mail when it's closing soon.
PredictIt currently has ~58% chance of a vote before Nov 3.
Significant mismatch between community prediction here and betting odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/CoronavirusAp… Edit: at the time of posting the community median here was approximately 500k, while EBO had >50% odds of >1M.
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