### ege_erdil (18) Discontinuing the Final Forecast Bonus

I think this is a good change.

One question: Have you normalized the system so that people should still expect around the same average points per question? This was one the only metrics of forecasting performance available to the public and it would be bad if it got thrown off by this change.

### ege_erdil (11) Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Community forecast on this is ridiculously high. In the GISS temperature record since 1880, the difference between the January-May average anomaly for a year and the average temperature anomaly for the entire year has mean zero, standard deviation 0.071 and excess kurtosis -0.66. The January-May average for the year 2021 was 0.782, and the annual mean temperature anomaly that has to be surpassed for 2021 to be the hottest year on record is 1.02. That means we want the difference between the two to be 0.24 or more. The base rate for this in the entire re...

### ege_erdil (10) Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?

[From a Georgian news outlet](https://civil.ge/archives/483425): > The Prime Minister also doubled down on his earlier statements on the refusal to join sanctions against Russia, while also stressing Georgia’s support to Ukraine in international platforms. > “At the political level, we have supported Ukraine in all formats, be it the UN, the EU, the Council of Europe, or the OSCE formats, everywhere. We were co-organizers, co-sponsors, or just supporters of the Ukrainian resolutions.” > As for sanctions, he continued, Georgia will not impose economic ...

### ege_erdil (9) What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?

Fitting an AR(1) to Putin's approval rating time series gives me the model $$a_{t+1} = 6.44 \% + 0.91 \times a_t$$, which oscillates around a mean value of roughly 74%. Moreover, the residuals of this model have low skewness: big moves up or down seem to be about equally common. If we knew nothing about the situation in Russia, we should probably center our forecast around 74% and have a 50% confidence interval that's plus or minus 4.6% around that number or so. The inside view should obviously dominate this forecast if we knew more about it, but I'm ...

### ege_erdil (8) Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?

@ege_erdil It's refreshing to be proven wrong on such short order.

### ege_erdil (8) How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?

I think there's an important wrinkle in the resolution criteria for this question: would we say that the reign of the last Roman emperor ended in 476, or in 1453?

### ege_erdil (5) Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?

The fact that there is no restriction for the poll to be representative makes this question very likely to resolve positively. You can easily get such a result if you poll a specific subset of physicists, say, a subset working at an institute where the Everett interpretation is particularly popular.