### ege_erdil (11) Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Community forecast on this is ridiculously high. In the GISS temperature record since 1880, the difference between the January-May average anomaly for a year and the average temperature anomaly for the entire year has mean zero, standard deviation 0.071 and excess kurtosis -0.66. The January-May average for the year 2021 was 0.782, and the annual mean temperature anomaly that has to be surpassed for 2021 to be the hottest year on record is 1.02. That means we want the difference between the two to be 0.24 or more. The base rate for this in the entire re...

### ege_erdil (8) How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?

I think there's an important wrinkle in the resolution criteria for this question: would we say that the reign of the last Roman emperor ended in 476, or in 1453?

### ege_erdil (4) When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

@(Jgalt) Good point. If the constitution states that the state is communist, I think the question shouldn't resolve, i.e. for the purposes of this question socialism == communism. However, I think generic references to socialism and communism (as opposed to an explicit statement that the state is socialist/communist) should be insufficient to prevent resolution. The current constitution has a preamble in which these words make many appearances, and I can foresee something like that being kept in a new constitution which doesn't actually assert that the ...