What exactly is this question asking? Seems like different readings may be possible based on different sentences in the question text:

  • How many countries will have 2023 > 2022?

  • How many countries will have 2023 > 1.25 * 2022?

  • How many countries will have 2023 above 1.6% * 1.25 = 2%?

  • Something else?

— edited by dvasya

@d_d I don't think anyone has brought up torture

Nominating Kamil Galeev, a historian who has written a lot of insightful threads about Russia and its invasion of Ukraine

I would estimate a probability of him declaring a mass mobilisation on May 9 at 20%


May 4, 2022

Related questions: Russian declaration of war on Ukraine (prerequisite for mobilization)



@dantilkin an "American" option can be exercised at any time, so you shouldn't have to 2x - the paths that go outside $140 and then go back below will already have been accounted for in the market makers' pricing models.

What amount of ceasefire violation constitutes a breakdown for the purpose of this question?

For the purpose of this question, the addition of troops to Transnistria will not trigger positive resolution

Seems mere annexation is not enough, troops would have to cross into non-Transnistria parts of Moldova

> If Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty with no agreement to reduce army size, this question will resolve as >250,000. This is very confusing. If A = "There is a peace treaty" and B = "Ukraine agrees to reduce army size" and X is the size, you could just have three questions: P(A) - already exists P(B|A) - ambiguous if ^A P(X|B&A) - ambiguous if ^A | ^B Lumping together P(^B|A) and P(X>250k|B&A) is very hard to process. And given how continuous forecast input works here, even if you untangle this it's just hard to represent, e.g. I may think that 2...


Gaia replied on Mar 5, 2022 at 8:00am Given how the question is worded, my take is that any path to YouTube being blocked should count, whether by Russia or Google. (And I agree one is much likelier than the other.) What do others think?


@rappatoni Interesting! Here's the commander of Strategic Rocket Forces saying 95% of the force is at constant readiness. The tone implies that the remaining 5% are below constant. June 5: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/844760 Maybe it really never happened?

@citizen yes but this is how the question is written

This question will resolve at resolution time according to the number reported by OVD-Info

At resolution time (end of 2022) the number was 19,478.

@oumeen it was the spot though, not futures

65->60 (74) on theory that YouTube will be impossible to watch through VPN (and nobody really wants the blocks to succeed - Peskov admitting to use Instagram etc.

@oumeen hm, it does list 139.13 as the 1-year high so I guess I was wrong!

Added: Shame I seem to be unable to downvote my own comments :)

— edited by dvasya

@casens yes I meant delete and start over :) unfortunately, ignoring a question is not an option in a tournament

@admins looks like this has either never happened or got rolled back before June 5? 👆

@casens that's quite a leap, to be honest!

The best source I know (linked in the parallel Russia question) estimates a 4:1 killed/wounded ratio for Russia (looking at actual obituaries). This is 2x your 2:1 ratio, and it requires quite a stretch of imagination to further assign a 1:1 ratio between the attacking and defending sides.