É o fim meus amigos
— edited by def1ant
Given other battles (e.g Grozny), the apparent lack of operational competence by the Russian army in the North/East, the difficulty of urban warfare and the high morale of the Ukrainians, I'm giving this 20%. I would probably place the chance of Kyiv falling before 1st April even lower, but considering I've never been in a war before, I'm not confident enough for that.
Using US data from March 9, Russia lost around 3.5k - 6k soldiers and Ukraine lost around 2k - 4k. For civilian deaths, using UN data from March 9 we get about 550. Taking the lower bound for military losses, we reach 432 deaths/day, so it would take almost 4 months for the total number of deaths to exceed 50k. I don't think it's very likely that this war will last that long.
However, I'm certain that the number of deaths per day is higher; civilians deaths in particular are probably greater than what UN data suggests.
Pretty much all polls showing a Lula lead, some even showing him winning in the first turn of the election. I don't really think Bolsonaro has much of a chance at this point to be honest.
I'm at 10% right now if you people want to know., down from 40% four months ago.
Man, we lost to Cameroon, that sucks. Well, better to lose now than in the knockout stage I guess...
Lula just overtook Bolsonaro
Updated to 40% due to Bolsonaro's strengthening.
@TemetNosce Seems like you're right after all. Difference between Lula and Bolsonaro appears way smaller than what the polls were showing.
@Rexracer63 Indeed it is...
But oh well, there's always next time!
@Aithir One of them added new questions*, but other than that, not that I could find.
*Specifically, they asked the people who voted for other candidates for whom they intended to vote.