É o fim meus amigos

Brazil out

— edited by def1ant

Given other battles (e.g Grozny), the apparent lack of operational competence by the Russian army in the North/East, the difficulty of urban warfare and the high morale of the Ukrainians, I'm giving this 20%. I would probably place the chance of Kyiv falling before 1st April even lower, but considering I've never been in a war before, I'm not confident enough for that.

I'm gonna have a heart attack I swear to god

Damn, wasn't expecting that

Using US data from March 9, Russia lost around 3.5k - 6k soldiers and Ukraine lost around 2k - 4k. For civilian deaths, using UN data from March 9 we get about 550. Taking the lower bound for military losses, we reach 432 deaths/day, so it would take almost 4 months for the total number of deaths to exceed 50k. I don't think it's very likely that this war will last that long.

However, I'm certain that the number of deaths per day is higher; civilians deaths in particular are probably greater than what UN data suggests.

I don't know, I can see it happening, but Putin would be a far 'better' pick in terms of influence. It's Putin who is in the news most of the time, Zelenskyy/Ukraine are mostly reacting to Putin's actions. Of course, choosing him might not be good PR. Another possibility as others have mentioned before is for the 'Ukrainian people' to be named, which I think is more likely than just Zelenskyy. I doubt someone unrelated to the Ukraine War will be chosen (e.g Queen Elizabeth); I don't think other events had the same impact, but that might just be my perso...

Pretty much all polls showing a Lula lead, some even showing him winning in the first turn of the election. I don't really think Bolsonaro has much of a chance at this point to be honest.

I'm at 10% right now if you people want to know., down from 40% four months ago.

I don't think Russia can maintain their manpower/equipment losses past this year. Tank losses seem particularly severe: around 10% of their in active service tanks have been lost according to Oryx (233 documented; I'm assuming the actual number is a bit higher) in three weeks of combat. There are still reserves of course, but I don't know how much of a threat they are or how long would it take to put the reserves online, so someone with military experience can probably explain this better. But it seems likely to me that Russia will have to start cutting...

Man, we lost to Cameroon, that sucks. Well, better to lose now than in the knockout stage I guess...

Updated to 40% due to Bolsonaro's strengthening.

@TemetNosce Seems like you're right after all. Difference between Lula and Bolsonaro appears way smaller than what the polls were showing.

@Rexracer63 Indeed it is...

But oh well, there's always next time!

I find it unlikely that Bolsonaro gets re-elected. Opinion polls generally come out with 55% of respondents rating his government as bad/terrible; Election polls generally put Lula at about 40% while Bolsonaro is at around 30%, and it's not clear to me that he can bridge this gap; his performance during the pandemic has clearly damaged his chances and this situation is likely to worsen due to high inflation/gas prices. There's still some time until the election so things might change in his favor. I do not think it will be enough to make a victory possi...
@(TemetNosce) Well, as far as I cared to see the polls were generally right in other presidential elections. And Lula's lead in a lot of [them](https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno) (for the second round this year) is not insignificant (10%+). I'd be more wary if the lead was around 5% or less. I guess I should not rely completely on polls, but they match the feeling I'm getting from talking with people I know, especially acquaintances that support Bolsonaro. The feelin...

@Aithir One of them added new questions*, but other than that, not that I could find.

*Specifically, they asked the people who voted for other candidates for whom they intended to vote.

@exmateriae I had Germany at 10%. Belgium was also somewhat "high" at 5%