@(jmason)
> That the community is still at 45% is quite surprising. What's going on here?
Media frenzy is not the full story. (I'm at 10%)
Here are a few reasons:
1. the question excludes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russia may easily move their forces–officially this time–and annex them. It would cost them very little. The question would still resolve negatively.
2. Russia is a master of brinkmanship (the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict). Russia did similar ...
I dislike this question. It demonstrates laziness and lack of preparation. Just providing links to sources that don't give anything explicit, then delegating the resolution to the community.
@traviswfisher Very unlikely. World population grows over 80 million per year.
It has to be Spanish flu level pandemic to reduce world population temporarily. Spanish flu was so deadly partly because WWII created large number of injured and malnourished people. Today medicine, containment etc. are much better so even Spanish flu could not be so fatal.
@(johnnycaffeine) 1999 NATO bombings in the Kosovo war is a better comparison. The military of Ukraine is similarly trained as Serbs and not as incompetent as Iraqi forces were.
NATO's air campaign against the Serbian military was a failure. Serbs used decoys and were able to hide their forces. Only after NATO changed the strategy and started to bomb stationary targets like factories, Serbian government yielded. Apache helicopters stayed mostly grounded due to Serbian air defenses.
NATO did 38,000 sorties, over 200 per day causing only 1200 milit...
PRC diplomats have removed talking points blaming NATO for the conflict in Ukraine & made clear that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia would be viewed as totally unacceptable in Beijing.
The use of nuclear weapons is not a bilateral issue between NATO and Russia. Others have stakes as well. Neither Russia or Putin personally can afford to lose the neutrality of China and India. Russia would collapse without money from oil and gas.
So far all most analyses ignore global reaction and how it would affect Russian stance.
China, India, Turkey, Kazakstan would all react very negatively. They want to stay neutral, but now they would have to choose between Russia and the developed world and they would choose the latter (Russia has only so much to offer). The whole NPT treaty would be in danger.
Any previously neutral nation dealing with Russia would face extreme sanctions and they would cut Russian ties as fast as they could. Russia would become North Korea like pariah in the glo...
@(MaxTegmark) Brinkmanship without win scenario is not credible.
If Russia uses a nuclear weapon (my probability):
1. Ukraine agrees to negotiate (10%)
2. China, India, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Pakistan agree to join severe new sanctions against Russia – willingly or because of the threat of global sanctions. Virtually all Russian international trade, including oil and gas exports end (90%)
3. Bosporus Strait, Danish straits closed to Russian military/civilian vessels (70%),
4. Severe global sanctions against any country trading with Russia (90%)...
Expert analysis: [NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IN THE UKRAINE
WAR
DIPLOMACY OF VIOLENCE](https://www.fiia.fi/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/bp355_nuclear-deterrence-in-the-ukraine-war.pdf) This Briefng Paper analyses how nuclear deterrence operates in the Ukraine war. First, it discusses
how nuclear deterrence works to limit wars between nuclear-armed states. It then maps out the deterrence
strategies of Russia and the US.
Lifting some interesting points from the article:
1. Ukraine is facing existential threat, not Russia. Ukraine would probably continue fighting...
I estimate that the minimal computational power necessary to exceed human general intelligence with requires only the raw computational power of very small mammal or a bird, like tiny mice or hummingbird (there are researchers who agree with me but I'm not saying names because I don't remember who they are and I'm too lazy for literature search).
The caveat is that we may not be able to have algorithms that get even close to minimum. We may need million times the computational capacity of the human brain to replicate human intelligence. Just like th...
Einstein field equations allows many weird solutions when you just play with them mathematically and ignore physics or invent your own. Think some weird geometry and then invent nonphysical matter or matter configuration that provides the solution.
The only reason I can see why Alcubierre drive being so interesting compared to other solutions is the name "warp-time" and "drive". It invokes the sense that it's a mechanical device you can build and not just a mathematical exercise. If it was just called Alcubierre solution, It would not be any more int...
It's possible that current model like GPT-3 could do it just based on text. Not because they can figure it out from the clues, but because "Bear eats X" is a typical thing for a bear to do in stories. If the model recognizes the generic tone and narrative style it can often give a correct answer without thinking.
Children do this too. You give them list of math questions, then finish with something like: "John has 50 apples. John's father ate 40 apples. How old is John?" Many children just do 50-40 = 10 because 10 is a good age for a boy with a fathe...
Update to my earlier prediction: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/#comment-13030
Still 1% with more evidence. NASA's own audit does not believe the timeline either. Covid has delayed the progress even more than anticipated. Report November 12, 2020 NASAS, Office of Inspector General https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/MC-2020.pdf
>Challenge 1: Landing the First Woman and the Next Man on the Moon by 2024
>... Due to these challenges, we anticipate further schedule de...
A Month long wargaming of retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials.
Original is Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/what-if-war-game-for-a-us-china-conflict-sees-a-heavy-toll syndicated to https://www.jpost.com/international/article-714273 and others.
>... it posits a US military response to a Chinese invasion in 2026. Even though the participants bring an American perspective, they are finding that a US-Taiwan victory, if there is one, could come at a huge cost.
> ...“The results are showing that...
@gjm I have experienced the same in many other forums.
Signal to noise ratio simply declines if the forum is free for all and becomes popular, see September that never ended.
You have to form a culture with moderation, boundaries and defenses to keep the quality high. It's not automatic. Posting guidelines and rules on the side is jut not enough.
Historical anecdote. Chinese fired over 100,000 artillery shells into Kimnmen islands during President Eisenhowe's visit in Taiwan 1960. 30,000 shells directly after the plane landed.
Outer Taiwanese islands (Kimnmen and others) have entered a state of "combat standby". Last time this happened was
during 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis.
Dementia incidence increases exponentially with age between the ages of 65 and 90 years and doubles approximately every 5 years. If I remember correctly, male in Biden's age might have 1-2% per year change of getting dementia.
When it comes to visible symptoms, I don't think there is reasonable evidence.
1. Biden has always been susceptible for gaffes. It's called *"Joe being Joe"*. When he was younger it was just the way he was. Now it's seen as a symptom.
2. healthy 77-year-old without dementia can have problems with recall and short episodes o...
1% Baklitskiy unpacks it well and for me it looks reassuring.
This Russian strategy to feed constant stream of false information to be repeated in western media works really well at sewing fear and confusion.
The reassuring part is that Russian talk and signalling is not directed to western military observes. Experts are not overly concerned because Russia is has not moved tactical nukes, or altered their official messaging about nuclear deterrence.
What is the interpretation of "The citizens should not be asked to perform any specific labor activity?"
If we allow: *"Healthy working-age citizens are asked to seek work actively, but all things mentioned are provided even if they refuse work."* then basically all Nordic countries provide this level of comfort already. It may be hard to realize that this is the case because the system is built from a patchwork of different welfare systems that kick in at different times.
The absolute worst case in Finland is that after other necessities and month...
It just occurred to me that probability of war is endogenous variable in the nuclear brinkmanship game.
If the the perceived probability is too small, it will not work as a deterrent or threat. Participants must increase the probability (accidental escalation or perceived irrationality of player) until the threat becomes credible again. The probability of nuclear war has probably some equilibrium.