I won't predict this - I hate the perverse incentives for forecasting with the possibility of early close, and this is that to an insane extent.
Re: Lucile Randon - As of 11 February 2019 she is in a wheelchair. She said "the good Lord will come to take me soon (...) 115 years It's enough, I hope the good God will take me this year" (via English wikipedia, citing an article in French.)
Neuralink will probably have the device.
The current FDA standards make approval fairly unlikely.
BUT the hesitancy of the US FDA during COVID makes me think significant reforms are likely. These will probably permit greater flexibility, given the direction of the current mistake.
Updating slightly - the coming avalanche of money into biological research due to COVID seems to make this more likely.
@Matthew_Barnett I understand the argument, but 1) this seems more likely to be a short recession than previous ones, and 2) most spending on research is governmental, which takes much less of a hit.
@davidmanheim Also, US + Iranian GDP is safely under 30% of world GDP, and doesn't even get close to 50% of the population.
Fires can cause tons of damage - $1bn isn't out of the question already.
Why is this ambiguous? Using most reasonable methods, regardless of how the criteria was phrased initially or later, the peak was on the 7th.
We're at 12 so far in 2020, and social distancing due to COVID is going to make measles spread fairly unlikely.
@thatMikeBishop It seems likely that they would save lives via allowing broader deployment faster, even if there is (minimal) loss of efficacy. If the research shows that 1 dose is 98% as effective as both in the first 6 months, there would likely be counterfactual lives saved from doing a 1-dose schedule, even though the original schedule is better on an individual level.
Does this resolve on the announcement of the course, or the date the course starts? (cc: @NunoSempere - either way, putting any significant weight on, say, Feb-May of any year seems a bit crazy.)
Unless I'm missing something, the WTO ruling means this is likely to resolve negatively, if it is not ambiguous; there have been no new tariffs, and those $200bn of tariffs were removed between August and the election, at least in theory.
The situation hasn't gotten better, obviously, but for resolution we look at actual triggers, not the intent of the question.
This was sent to committee and looks dead: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/…
For this question, it looks plausible it should close already, or very soon - especially if we include Sinovac, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-cor… - with a hundred million doses given as of a month ago, and a couple hundred million doses administered total. (Sputnik V has another 20 million, so it's a rounding error.)
New York City has a huge number of additional votes that haven't come in yet; https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/its-e…
Valerie Vazquez-Diaz, of the New York City Board of Elections, told CNN... "No, we do not release piecemeal," Vazquez-Diaz said. "We go from unofficial election night results to certified results after we certify the entire election."