I won't predict this - I hate the perverse incentives for forecasting with the possibility of early close, and this is that to an insane extent.

Re: Lucile Randon - As of 11 February 2019 she is in a wheelchair. She said "the good Lord will come to take me soon (...) 115 years It's enough, I hope the good God will take me this year" (via English wikipedia, citing an article in French.)

Neuralink will probably have the device.

The current FDA standards make approval fairly unlikely.

BUT the hesitancy of the US FDA during COVID makes me think significant reforms are likely. These will probably permit greater flexibility, given the direction of the current mistake.

Over the medium term, most ambitious companies either succeed, or fail. Given that bankruptcy obviates the question, the issue here is mostly about what happens if it succeeds. Obviously, SpaceX could continue to muddle along as a multi-billion dollar firm, but they seem more likely to continue to take bug risks and shoot for the moon. (In this case, Mars.) In the current case, the question is then about the market capitalization - what people think the future value of SpaceX will be if it succeeds. I would think that this makes the question nearly bina...

@Linch @ninjaedit - I actually think the 5-7 day transmission delay will matter a lot for this question, and people will continue to self-isolate in most areas of Georgia. That means that spread will increase some, but it will take time to start mattering.

Updating slightly - the coming avalanche of money into biological research due to COVID seems to make this more likely.

@Matthew_Barnett I understand the argument, but 1) this seems more likely to be a short recession than previous ones, and 2) most spending on research is governmental, which takes much less of a hit.

@davidmanheim Also, US + Iranian GDP is safely under 30% of world GDP, and doesn't even get close to 50% of the population.

Fires can cause tons of damage - $1bn isn't out of the question already.


Why is this ambiguous? Using most reasonable methods, regardless of how the criteria was phrased initially or later, the peak was on the 7th.

We're at 12 so far in 2020, and social distancing due to COVID is going to make measles spread fairly unlikely.


@thatMikeBishop It seems likely that they would save lives via allowing broader deployment faster, even if there is (minimal) loss of efficacy. If the research shows that 1 dose is 98% as effective as both in the first 6 months, there would likely be counterfactual lives saved from doing a 1-dose schedule, even though the original schedule is better on an individual level.

Does this resolve on the announcement of the course, or the date the course starts? (cc: @NunoSempere - either way, putting any significant weight on, say, Feb-May of any year seems a bit crazy.)

Unless I'm missing something, the WTO ruling means this is likely to resolve negatively, if it is not ambiguous; there have been no new tariffs, and those $200bn of tariffs were removed between August and the election, at least in theory.

The situation hasn't gotten better, obviously, but for resolution we look at actual triggers, not the intent of the question.

@(AngraMainyu) Changes in existing inventory take lots of time, yes. But that's not the dynamic in China - and at the rate China is installing new power, they can complete lots of the transition just by switching their newer plants to cleaner sources, which they are already doing. Given that 50% of China's electricity is currently coal, (down from over 75% a decade ago,) and that these plants are being phased out and actively replaced over the coming decade, the transition is far easier, and far more impactful in percentage terms, than developed countri...
It's once again time for "Let's do an informal Bayesian update." First data point: > In May 2019, experts estimated the arsenal of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad at around 5,000 to 20,000 rockets. Second data point: > By our count, 4382 rockets, mortars, and missiles have been fired at Israel since the start of 2021 as of 5/20/21 Third data point: Hamas was pushing very strongly for peace deal by that time. Using that information, I would update our estimate of their total arsenal. To start, I would guess that the low end of the first range...

For this question, it looks plausible it should close already, or very soon - especially if we include Sinovac, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-cor… - with a hundred million doses given as of a month ago, and a couple hundred million doses administered total. (Sputnik V has another 20 million, so it's a rounding error.)

New York City has a huge number of additional votes that haven't come in yet; https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/its-e…

Valerie Vazquez-Diaz, of the New York City Board of Elections, told CNN... "No, we do not release piecemeal," Vazquez-Diaz said. "We go from unofficial election night results to certified results after we certify the entire election."

@(sbares) I agree about electric vehicles, but it seems strange to me to claim that space launch wasn't mature before SpaceX - it was unclear it could or would ever get any more mature until SpaceX showed up. The same case would be made for Boring company. Saturation of a market is a function of price - reducing the prices 10x will make the industry suddenly seem much larger, and (consequentially) less mature, with far more room for growth. But I agree that "simply wishing" isn't enough - which is why the actual plans that Boring company have seem prett...