People are really going overboard in over-weighting recent events compared to structural and baseline estimates.

Relevant - my paper on uncertainty about natural pandemic risks: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/hs.2018.0039 Abstract: The central argument in this article is that the probability of very large natural pandemics is more uncertain than either previous analyses or the historical record suggest. In public health and health security analyses, global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) have the potential to cause ‘‘sudden, extraordinary, widespread disaster,’’ with ‘‘tens to hundreds of millions of fatalities.’’ Recent analyses focusing on extr...
We can respond significantly better than 1918-1919 just by keeping people in heated rooms and giving them water. Yes, secondary pneumonia killed people, but so did a lack of basic services and understanding of what kills people. We also wouldn't have reinfections at that rate the next year and 2 years later, because we can immunize now. Also, for better background reading than reddit posts, try; Potter, C. W., "A history of influenza," J Appl Microbiol, Vol. 91, No. 4, Oct, 2001, pp. 572-579. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11576290 Word Health Org...

We need another question for Pelosi as President on Jan 21...

I'm too close to the situation to be objective, and I've been burned forecasting middle east politics before. BUT... Despite all of that, I don't see how the Saudis can ignore the internal pressure this quickly - even if they are willing to do this, I think it will take time for public acceptance of earlier deals and for there to be any official announcement. Bibi's political position is complicated, and will remain so for months, making any concessions hard, and while it's likely, it's unclear he'll survive the election as PM. So unless it happens very...

Aldrin - 89, Scott - 87, Duke - 83, Schmitt - 83.

The question boils doing to a race between 2 83 year olds' life spans and Elon Musk. Note that per their wikipedia pages, Duke and Schmitt are both still active.

@Uncle Jeff Because the route from distant bats to Wuhan is tenuous without lab research as the dot between, I was leaning as far toward toward positive as I could without risking points to the mob. Only the dishonest display of points against is causing me to go negative (it was zero until today).

You are aware that there were markets in southern China that sold farmed populations of bats and other "wild" animals to markets in Wuhan, right?

@Reprisal "Anyone can use quotes to seem wise, regardless of specific relevance."

The current estimate seems very high - it seems unlikely (p<50%) hostilities resume, and if they don't, this is unlikely to trigger.

(During "peacetime," a couple of rockets are fired per month, but Netanyahu has said he's going to be super-aggressive if this happens, so it's likely to stay lower.)

@frxtz Because I didn't realize they had added a feature allowing components. This is awesome!

The sum of individual values is a very, very weird metric, given how the Trends chart is computed.

Also, looking now, there's basically no chance this happens unless there is a huge spike for some reason over several months - and even then, the summed monthly values will get washed out - 150% is a crazy high bar for this metric.

@(kievalet) I have said before, and I will say again, that unless it is clear the intention is otherwise, the goal of Metaculus questions should be to predict object level reality. Resolution criteria, which sometimes require external inputs affected by things like language used in newspaper articles, should be interpreted in that context. In this specific case, I assume the question resolution is in the hands of @yshemesh, who will presumably consult an expert if it is unclear. @moderators - Messy resolutions lead to rules-lawyering and debate about ...

New York Times has updated to 80,925,383 votes (51.3%) vs. 74,071,768 votes (46.9%), with NY changing to 92% counted. This gives Biden a 4.4% lead already, making this a negative resolution, unless the final count somehow ends up reducing Biden's lead. So it's not done for another week, but it looks like this is all-but-settled.

Any views on how the Hong Kong citizenship decision could impact this? Seems plausible it could go to above 1m if many in HK decide to move.

"As a result of" is ambiguous. Does this mean estimated number of deaths directly from COVID19? Number of deaths from a confirmed case of COVID19? Or the number of excess deaths due to the pandemic?

Let's factor this out.

Q1 usually sees a drop. Just doing basic time series analysis, I'm seeing a projection of about $230bn. I'm fairly confident that this is within 10% of the correct value. ($205bn, $255bn).

If all income stopped as of Mar 15th, we'd still see 2.5 months of the income, or $192bn (170bn, $212bn).

HOWEVER, if business receipts are paid post-hoc, this could be much worse. Also, this is reported tax income; companies may choose to under-report because of the crisis. That means we could see a far larger drop.

@michaelchen Also see NASA's article that concludes these are full of hematite, i.e. not alive: https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/6944/martian-…

@alexrjl It displays the community prediction, not the average brier score for people in the community...

It's Fox News, but there is chance this could lead to wider-scale rioting in MN that hits at least one of the triggers.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/armed-citizens-gua…