Californians will have ballots automatically mailed to them in the fall. From news about vote-by-mail in the primaries and forecaster reasoning, this could result in 10 million more Californians voting (50% -> 75%) pre eligible voters adjustment. 10 million is about 3% of the US population, which is still 3% post eligible voter adjustment, so this consideration shifted my prediction +3%.
While the United States currently enjoys a lead of almost 100 PetaFLOPS—533 PFlops vs. China's 438 PFlops in Nov 2018—as far as I know no large supercomputer projects are due to be completed in 2019 *, and this works to China's favor.
From Nov 2016 to Nov 2018 China gained 214 PFlops without completing any top 10 projects. In the same period the U.S. gained 305 PFlops, but Summit and Sierra accounts for 238 PFlops with the rest adding up to only 67 PFlops.
* China's large projects are due in 2020, and U.S.'s in 2021.
On Good Judgment Open, the crowd median is 4%. I predicted 15% there and 25% here. Jgalt's latest comment is relevant and I think the Metaculus community hasn't fully updated on the news.
OpenAI blogged about their latest Dota bot:
We estimate that we used the following amounts of compute to train our various Dota systems:
- 1v1 model: 8 petaflop/s-days
- June 6th model: 40 petaflop/s-days
- Aug 5th model: 190 petaflop/s-days
This compares to 1800 petaflop/s-days for AlphaGo Zero. My weak understanding is that the 190 petaflop/s-days figure is for a system trained over 2 months.
The survey asks about the employment status of each member of the household 15 years of age or older as of the calendar week containing the 12th day of the month.
This question was erroneously set to close in 2021, when it actually closes in 9 days.