I made a [guesstimate model](https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15213)* with the intention of confirming my prediction of 13%, but I found that if one agrees with the community distribution on "[How many human infections of Covid-19 ... before 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)" and thinks that ~100 Metaculites would report a positive test result, the current median of 45% is justified.
However, I think only about 50 would re...
The IARPA [Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2](https://www.herox.com/IARPAGFChallenge2) is starting May 15. When the first batch of questions come out tomorrow I'll see whether there are any interesting questions for Metaculus.
The challenge is geared more towards finding the best algorithm to process a stream of human predictions, than it is to finding a strong team of predictors [(FAQ)](https://www.herox.com/IARPAGFChallenge2/faq). (The human predictions are from Mechanical Turk.) There will be 310 question over 6 months—about 13 per week. But is an...
I looked at how the five items on the list are doing.
- The [Google trends search on "AI winter"](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=%22AI%20winter%22) shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak at 77, with a few peaks between then and now (which is to be expected given that the field of AI as a whole is growing), but nothing that indicates that discusssion of AI winter is growing.
- I didn't find any keynotes with the phrase "AI winter". For NeurIPS 2019 in the list of talks I didn't find any "keynotes" but instead found "invited talks...
Making a note that I think I understand the resolution criteria now, and it's bit different than expected. The land bridge in this question refers to a piece of coastline in Ukraine, ~170 miles long, along and north of the Azov sea. (The land bridge is not referring to the Kerch bridge.) Ukraine has to control a contiguous zone of control/path from Kyiv to that coastline to resolve the question positive. From the resolution criteria:
> For the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian terri...
There are now over 100 questions in the IARPA Geoforecasting Challenge 2. I'm competing in the competition, and I've gathered some of the more interesting ones: shortlist.
Eyeballing the [chart](http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United%20States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk#countries), I initially estimated 10k. Then I looked at the results from the February COVID questions and the outcomes were better (lower cases and deaths) than the community expected (better than my final prediction expected as well). Then I read RyanBeck's prediction (which was more confident and lower than the community), and I made a more rigorous calculation b...
In 2030, will the percentage of U.S. adults that are vegetarian be <=5%? (according to a self-report poll specified in a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/)). <br/>
I've noticed what I believe is a systemic bias in the community prediction for vegetarian and vegan related questions. I think for this discussion challenge it is easier to identify something for which the community is wrong about, than it is to have personal expertise in a topic suffi...
Californians will have ballots automatically mailed to them in the fall. From news about vote-by-mail in the primaries and forecaster reasoning, this could result in 10 million more Californians voting (50% -> 75%) pre eligible voters adjustment. 10 million is about 3% of the US population, which is still 3% post eligible voter adjustment, so this consideration shifted my prediction +3%.
Sigal Samuel of [Vox future perfect](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/6/3/22463776/guaranteed-universal-basic-income-charity-policy) reports on many of the new guaranteed income pilot programs. It seems almost all of the programs transfer $6000 a year, which is more than 33% the [federal poverty line](https://www.mass.gov/doc/2021-masshealth-income-standards-and-federal-poverty-guidelines/download) for individuals and families of two, but less than 33% of poverty threshold for families of three or four.
Following the hyperlinks the Newark progra...
It seems the Italian ban was not that well thought out; Bing chat and the OpenAI API are still accessible, yet the reasons Italy have provided for the ban should have shut those down too. I made this judgment and predicted based on the child comment linked here. https://old.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/12hzbds/italy_hasnt_banned_chatgpt/jfsgclf/
The section on protecting minors from the announcement of the ban is pretty weak, since in other age-restricted parts of the internet users are simply asked for their birthday and the "age verification mechani...
While the United States currently enjoys a lead of almost 100 PetaFLOPS—533 PFlops vs. China's 438 PFlops in Nov 2018—as far as I know no large supercomputer projects are due to be completed in 2019 *, and this works to China's favor.
From Nov 2016 to Nov 2018 China gained 214 PFlops without completing any top 10 projects. In the same period the U.S. gained 305 PFlops, but Summit and Sierra accounts for 238 PFlops with the rest adding up to only 67 PFlops.
* China's large projects are due in 2020, and U.S.'s in 2021.
@Sylvain has picked a fairly mild one this time; the rules of this game encourage cooperation, there's little incentive to backstab, and counterplay or adversarial play to the dominant strategy is fairly weak.
I think we should aim for a high as possible N early on, then lock it in place by refusing to comment on any new threads once that high N is reached. N=5 or N=6 should be possible, although I'm not committed to those numbers this early on.
Let say we achieve N=5, and have 5 comment threads with 5 unique users. Then anyone can reply to all those...
Last year (in 2018) there were [15504](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=Artificial+intelligence&terms-0-field=abstract&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=Machine+learning&terms-1-field=abstract&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=Reinforcement+learning&terms-2-field=abstract&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=Neural+network&terms-3-field=abstract&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=Back+propagation&terms-4-field=abstract&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=Hidden+markov+model&terms-5-field=abstract&terms-6-operator=OR&term...
There's an article from FT.com that I found informative, dated June 7 2022 "Taiwan: preparing for a potential Chinese invasion". I accessed it through a google search, while a direct link, like Updogz posted below, doesn't work.
Some things I learned:
- Phil Davidson, "a retired admiral who commanded US forces in the Indo-Pacific until last year" warned of a potential invasion to a Senate committee on March 2021. He sees the acute period of risk as being the few years up to 2027 due to Xi Jinping's term ending and the timing of China's military moder...
@(probahilliby) Seems like a pragmatic move; from [article](https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/2/23707796/samsung-ban-chatgpt-generative-ai-bing-bard-employees-security-concerns):
>Samsung has banned the use of generative AI tools like ChatGPT on its internal networks and company-owned devices over fears that uploading sensitive information to these platforms represents a security risk, Bloomberg News reports. The rule was communicated to staff in a memo which describes it as a temporary restriction while Samsung works to “create a secure environment” to s...
When looking through the Jupyter notebook, I notice that the "method 2" charts tend to have long flat regions in recent history. Separately, a commenter in another forum that linked this page (datasecretslox, Scott Lawrence) notes that the "method 1" prediction for WikiText-103 is November of this year, which doesn't make much sense, and makes me guess that addressing that issue (to account for the lack of recent SOTA) is the reason that "method 2" was created in the first place.
I think that this pattern of SOTA on these benchmark being ~2 years old is...
There are now 13 matches left in the season and Fulham is 7 points behind the fourth worse team. The teams ranked 15th-17th all have 24 points with 25 matches played, and if they maintain their roughly 1 to 1 point/match ratio Fulham will have to play like the 7th ranked team to overcome its deficit (Fulham would need 13+7=20 points in 13 matches). If one of those teams play like Fulham, Fulham would need to play like the 12th ranked team to avoid relegation.
Two models for a team's performance for the rest of the season could be: (1) a team is equally...
Currently there are [17 US reviews](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/product-reviews/0316484911/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_show_all_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews) and 1 international review (and 26 ratings). In the 51 days since the question opened there's been 7 reviews; linearly extrapolating this to the whole year, there will be 47.3 reviews by the end of 2020.
Taking into account how popularity might fade or grow over time, I have a main (prediction probability distribution) component at [27, 35, 47], and a half-weighted ...
@mattvdm's informative comment gives an IMF estimate of $1.65 trillion in 2021 and prediction of $1.70 trillion had Russia not invaded Ukraine and experienced sanctions. The current community prediction seems low (I have my 25th / 50th percentiles at the community's 50th / 75th), and the community may have predicted based on the 2020 GDP which is low due to COVID. A percentage decrease similar to what happened in 2008 to 2009 seems plausible to me, but not as much as what the current community prediction is.