Experimental confirmation of the Many-Worlds interpretation
Definitive evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life
Discovery of Earth-based life unrelated to known life (different chemistry, unrelated genetic code, etc)
Evidence that life on Earth originated elsewhere (panspermia, etc).
Proof that P=NP
Disconfirmation of the Riemann hypothesis
I would have a much more confident answer to this question if I knew whether Gogo InFlight (InSpace) Wi-Fi would be involved.
If yes, I would answer negatively, although I would answer a question affirmatively that asked "Will a Metaculus user repeatedly try to post a comment on this question from space, and fail, before 2050?" Thank you.
Please set up appropriate AIs triggered from cron jobs to judge question completion and award points. The fact that no human may be left alive does not absolve Metaculus-the-system from doing the right thing in the positive case.
I like the idea of bundling these by topic. E.G. a set of unlikely political events, a set of unlikely scientific discoveries, etc.
I still find it a little confusing that a question I have not yet answered is so visually similar to questions I have answered.
One very simple cosmetic change you could make for binary questions would be to replace the "you: 50%" label on the slider control with "you: ??%" when you have not yet made a prediction.
Wow, having played with this now I am really impressed by this feature. The UI is so intuitive with multiple components, and yet it imposes no extra complexity if you just want one component - there's just one extra button to avoid clicking on. Bravo.
Congrats Gaia - great to see this happen.
2042 sounds early. They could be really behind on their email. Let's not assume that we'll be at the top of the queue.
Although factors mentioned below are likely to affect the log score going forward, I think the most important factor is difficult to model predictively: how hard will future Metaculus questions be? This will depend on makeup of the Metaculus site owners, makeup of the question-submitting user base, and fashions for styles of question.
If I understand the scoring correctly, all we would need for the log score to drop dramatically would be a raft of questions like "Will the Sun rise tomorrow?"
The tournament registration choices for academic field of study includes
as separate successive entries. Looks like a linebreak snuck in somewhere.
Very exciting - welcome Joanna, Dan, and Juan