Fallen as of today: Kherson. Encircled cities from this list as of today: Kharkiv and Mariupol. Fighting has reached the center of Mariupol, so it is likely to fall soon. So that would leave only one additional city to fall to close this question.

Given how well Kyiv is doing, and considering the outstanding recent post by @johnnycaffeine, reducing probability considerably. Also, given the Russian's heavy use of raw, barely trained recruits, failure to provide them with food, and tendency for its attack aircraft to get shot down, I'm wondering whether the Russian generals are slow walking the invasion on purpose. Perhaps a passive aggressive coup? On the other hand, perhaps the Russian generals are using the raw recruits as cannon fodder until they get a good idea of how to defeat Ukraine and th...

Shoutout to @Jgalt for his news reporting.

Going way down based upon Putin's Victory Day speech. Also, Air Force participation was canceled based upon "bad weather," clearly not true. Also, Putin's stiff, yet wavering body language,

The rise in private militaries in Russia suggests that power players are preparing for a civil war. On the other hand, the owners of these private armies may have unfortunate encounters with windows or stairs.

I had been low on this question based on my belief that Mariupol would still be controlled by Russia by the end of the year. Russia would not permit a credible count of the city's deaths. However, things are looking up for Ukraine now, in which case it may be able to get a credible count of Mariupol's fatalities.

Putin has declared peace talks are "dead." Given Putin's messaging to his citizens, it seems unlikely that he would ever stoop to being in the same room with Zelensky. See also @kievalet's post below.

Russia's weakness is the ground forces needed to control Kyiv. Its strength is lots of ammunition and long range attack techniques. See Grozny as a comparison class. I suspect that this could turn into a battle of Stalingrad situation, or the "Cyborgs" defense of the Prokofiev Donetsk Airport during the war in eastern Ukraine. They eventually lost, with the airport totally destroyed. But in the case of Kyiv, there are more hiding places for snipers. Also, hunting is a popular sport in Ukraine. Any decent hunter is capable of being a sniper, and it was ...

Holy cow, at one source, Brent futures are almost there at $130.20! Source: https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-o…. However, the futures price on NASDAQ is $118.11, source https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commod…. The resolution source pegs it as $129.35 right now, source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/….

Reducing probability as street fighting between Russian forces and Ukraine rages in Mariupol. This is an opportunity to see how the "cyborgs" of the Azov Battalion shape up against the likely opponents of Wagner, Syrian and Libyan mercenaries with experience in urban fighting. By comparison with the Azov Battalion vs Russians conflict within the Tchaikovsky Airport, and the battle of Stalingrad, this could rage for months. If Russian-led forces prevail soon, I will go way up. But if the cyborgs feed their opponents "into a wood chipper" (https://news.ya...

Given the collapse of much of Russia's forces, going up to 33%. I would go higher except that the city is so devastated that there are few people left to save, and few assets left to aid the war effort. I expect that Ukraine would take the entire Kherson oblast first, and perhaps even Crimea first. However, if Putin is deposed this year, I would greatly increase the probability of Ukraine taking Mariupol.

How I came up with this forecast: 11% chance Biden concedes before the 17th because he clearly lost. 1% chance a near tie and litigation, recounts last past 17th 88% chance Trump lost but he has set the stage for prolonged litigation no matter how big the loss by repeatedly asserting that millions of fraudulent votes were cast. Information sources: 538 aggregation of polls fed into simulations of the Electoral College votes. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Comparison class: Bush v Gore, 2000 timeline. Gore conceded the ...

Russia has terminated the inspections required under START. I expect Russia to refrain from formal withdrawal and simply continue now with informal withdrawal. I'm looking at this as similar to the question of Russia formally declaring war on Ukraine. Doing these things only informally is a strategy for preventing the Russian public from rebelling.

If I'm wrong, oh, well....

Dateline 5-25-2022 ...eight million people are displaced inside the war-torn country itself. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60555472

Dateline 3-29-2022 ...Ukrainian official close to the talks...said that chances of success in cease-fire talks had grown in recent weeks, “from 10% two weeks ago to 50%.” Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russ…

Russian generals are revealing a massive tolerance for soldiers' deaths. Example below, flying a transport plane with ~ 400 paratroopers into the jaws of Ukraine's fighter pilots and getting shot down. For this reason, increasing probability. Apparently that attitude of throwing away lives hasn't changed since the battle of Stalingrad. Or Kursk. The difference this time is instead of battling genocidal Nazis, they are attacking people with similar cultures and a love of freedom and tolerance. That is making a big difference in the reported frequency of R...

Erdogan offers to host peace talks between Putin, Zelensky. Dateline 3-17-2022 In call with Putin, Erdogan offers to host him and Zelensky for talks The Kremlin said that Russia was putting colossal energy into talks on a possible peace deal with Ukraine that could swiftly stop the Russian military operation there. Source: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701571

Putin's attacks on Ukraine's electrical power system appear to have countered his loss of Kherson, thus satisfying the hawks while avoiding the need to draft additional cannon fodder. However, things could change is vast numbers of mobiks were to die from hypothermia. But this might take beyond the forecast horizon to endanger his rule.

Dateline 1-8-2023 Sweden is confident that Turkey will approve its application to join the NATO military alliance, but it will not meet all the conditions that Ankara has set for its support, Sweden’s prime minister has said. “Turkey both confirms that we have done what we said we would do, but they also say that they want things that we cannot or do not want to give them,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Sunday during a security conference. In December, Sweden’s Supreme Court blocked the extradition of exiled Turkish journalist Bulent Kenes, wh...

@TeeJayKay Thank you, I stand corrected.