Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.
Can that function be available at other times as well?
100 paratroopers can't take a 900k city
But I'm not trying to predict anyone "taking" anything. I'm predicting entry into a city by a specific number of opponents.
Did anyone check at 5pm ET on May 31?
I looked at 6pm.
Bakhmut looks the same as yesterday. Reddish. Russian advance or control. No Ukraine control in the city.
@admins , i think this Resolves no per the very specific resolution rules. Thanks
World Cup in Qatar 🌍🏆🇶🇦
FRA resolve negative
🥅
DM did participate.
worst Metaculus forecast? I gotta think it's in the top 10
EDIT: Metaculus predicted 2.9% here, which is better than its accuracy on a question like this about AI. The questions resolved hours apart. When I originally posted here, I hadn't seen that one.
not sure what time the ceasefire began but it was in effect 28 days ago
2 more days!
I don't think those concerns (which are legit) give a 12% probability of 2022 detonation over Ukraine. As an illustration, the chance of a Putin-age Russian dying in the next 5 years is 17%, so the chance of that Russian dying in any calendar quarter is ≤ 1%. The chance of {dying & being replaced by someone significantly more likely to detonate a nuke over Ukraine} would not exceed 1% during 2022, on the face of things
ok, US Ambassador to Ukraine says 31 Abrams tanks will be transferred from US to UA
(previously announced: 4 from Portugal & 14 from Germany. Running Total from 3 countries is 49 tanks. 51 more needed for resolution.)
Recession later in the term does tend to make things tough for the incumbent. But there was a very painful recession 40 years ago, and Reagan was re-elected 2 years later. (Margaret Thatcher didn't lose her job either. And UK probably had it worse.)
The economic environment is one of the factors that help in predicting the incumbent's chances.
This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump
Metaculus question prompt: "What events could happen that would change your prediction?"
Me: Well, if another predictor credibly reported being from another planet, I'd move higher.
Regarding my view that (on 21 February at 0100 Kyiv time) it's too soon to resolve this ...
This question resolves positively if:
- representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation
(OR)
- two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council
...
announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine
But
Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
[Edited to delete January reference]
— edited by kievalet
The Los Angeles Times did pretty well in Pulitzer competition for coverage of domestic topics. Years back, its accuracy suffered for a time but then rebounded. I think the problems were before covid-19 but I don't really remember anything that far back
I was at 85% 2 days ago and went to 92.5 today. You can see where I'm heading.