I've seen enough. I personally would prefer to see something stating that he's the boss but @Jgalt has indicated that the spirit of the question is that he doesn't need a title. The corporation currently listed on NYSE as TWTR has filed [numerous Federal forms](https://investor.twitterinc.com/financial-information/sec-filings/default.aspx). Among other things, they tell us that **Elon Musk is the sole director, an authorized officer, and an agent** of the corporation. I think the effective date was the 27th, but the forms were filed on the 31st. Ther...

Right after making a prediction, a "post your prediction as a comment" button appears.

Can that function be available at other times as well?


100 paratroopers can't take a 900k city

But I'm not trying to predict anyone "taking" anything. I'm predicting entry into a city by a specific number of opponents.

###[Erdogan wins a third term as president with about 52% of the vote](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/turkey-election-runoff-results-intl/index.html) > President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will extend his 20 years at the top of Turkey's political landscape after winning the country's presidential runoff election on Sunday. > **Erdogan received 27,513,587 votes, or 52.14%** of the votes cast, according to figures released by the country's Supreme Election Council, **beating challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu who had 25,260,109 votes, or 47.86%.** This quest...

Did anyone check at 5pm ET on May 31?

I looked at 6pm.

Bakhmut looks the same as yesterday. Reddish. Russian advance or control. No Ukraine control in the city.

@admins , i think this Resolves no per the very specific resolution rules. Thanks

World Cup in Qatar 🌍🏆🇶🇦

FRA resolve negative


ARG resolve affirmative


worst Metaculus forecast? I gotta think it's in the top 10

EDIT: Metaculus predicted 2.9% here, which is better than its accuracy on a question like this about AI. The questions resolved hours apart. When I originally posted here, I hadn't seen that one.

@admins 40000 > 25000. [The Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff has reportedly said that 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed](https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/us-general-mark-milley-claims-over-100000-russian-military-casualties-in-ukraine/articleshow/95427675.cms) since Russia invaded their nation 9 months ago. General Milley, whose remarks were made at the Economic Club of New York, gave many other casualty estimates (MINIMUM estimates) without differentiating military KIA from WIA. ___ EXCERPT from a cred...

not sure what time the ceasefire began but it was in effect 28 days ago

2 more days!

per BBC, updated this week: > The ICC generally takes over prosecutions for war crimes in countries where the court systems are too weak to carry out the prosecutions themselves. (generally) > [So far, however, it seems Ukraine's courts have been able to mount their own cases. By the end of August, its prosecutor general had charged 135 suspected war criminals.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60690688) I've heard of some pretty scary stuff having happened in 2014 & ICC hasn't prosecuted those offenses. I don't predict Russia extraditing those people ...


I don't think those concerns (which are legit) give a 12% probability of 2022 detonation over Ukraine. As an illustration, the chance of a Putin-age Russian dying in the next 5 years is 17%, so the chance of that Russian dying in any calendar quarter is ≤ 1%. The chance of {dying & being replaced by someone significantly more likely to detonate a nuke over Ukraine} would not exceed 1% during 2022, on the face of things


ok, US Ambassador to Ukraine says 31 Abrams tanks will be transferred from US to UA

(previously announced: 4 from Portugal & 14 from Germany. Running Total from 3 countries is 49 tanks. 51 more needed for resolution.)


Recession later in the term does tend to make things tough for the incumbent. But there was a very painful recession 40 years ago, and Reagan was re-elected 2 years later. (Margaret Thatcher didn't lose her job either. And UK probably had it worse.)

The economic environment is one of the factors that help in predicting the incumbent's chances.

This comment was originally posted on Donald Trump

hi @admins Could you please elaborate on the status/conditions of this question's resolution? I don't know if the author of the question can be consulted for an opinion . My own searches thus far have found (a) cyberattacks that (b) hit critical infrastructure as described in the intro & (c) were blamed on Russian actors. What I have not found is any qualifying attack that caused the magnitude of damage needed for a "yes" resolution. For instance, an attack would "count" if 10 people died; so far I find 2 hospital cyberattacks that resulted in data ...

Metaculus question prompt: "What events could happen that would change your prediction?"

Me: Well, if another predictor credibly reported being from another planet, I'd move higher.

Regarding my view that (on 21 February at 0100 Kyiv time) it's too soon to resolve this ...

This question resolves positively if:

  1. representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation


  1. two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council


announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine


Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.

[Edited to delete January reference]

— edited by kievalet


  1. The Los Angeles Times did pretty well in Pulitzer competition for coverage of domestic topics. Years back, its accuracy suffered for a time but then rebounded. I think the problems were before covid-19 but I don't really remember anything that far back

  2. I was at 85% 2 days ago and went to 92.5 today. You can see where I'm heading.

moved higher on events: [NATO head Stoltenberg says Sweden joining NATO is a top priority](https://globalnews.ca/video/9600563/stoltenberg-finnish-president-say-swedens-accession-to-nato-is-top-priority/) [US Secretary of State reaffirms his support for Sweden](https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1643174440719491073?t=sNz-eWvJ9J2fF5RkTQ1oMg&s=19) NATO Assembly [summary](https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession) of Sweden progress [Video: the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland deposits their instrument of accession to the North ...