@casens I wish we could somehow make this place more like a prediction market. Even if it's fake internet points, the "smart money" being able to stake more points when they know a prediction is off and move the community median by more would be great. I know the "metaculus" prediction serves this purpose somewhat, but we can't see it until the question closes.
@Jgalt Haha, so immediately the community prediction drops to 55%, as if to correct for Musk overconfidence.
I wonder if Musk wasn't just quoting metaculus.
@Rexracer63 Banning a subreddit isn't banning trading any more than banning /r/the_donald was banning voting.
Reddit argues that there is still a strong short position on GameStop such that the squeeze has not yet occurred. In the meantime hedge funds are telling the media they've closed their positions. I don't understand finance enough to verify these claims (are they even verifiable?), so for me it comes down to who to trust.
Should I trust meme-lords on Reddit, or hedge funds?
You're damn right it's the meme-lords.
Auto-focus the search bar when the user clicks the "Search" button
Woo, my first Metaculus point!
It just exploded on the landing pad, but well after landing. Landing was still described by spacex as a success, so doesn't affect resolution!
The delta variant of COVID has caused a new wave of COVID in the UK despite decent vaccine coverage.
Will the US have another wave of COVID due to the delta variant?
Could be modelled after this now-resolved question on whether the US would have a 4th wave:
Knowing Musk, they're probably aiming for liftoff at 4:20PM on April 20th.
SN11 is moving along at breakneck pace, and was ready for static fire on Friday already - which didn't take place, presumably due to a delivery of propellant being delayed. It could static fire and fly very soon.
However, there's speculation that the first booster prototype BN1 may take precedent over the next starship prototype SN15, such that SN15 might not be the next vehicle on the pad. If so, that would push out the timeline for this question.
At the current rate of immunisation, ~70% herd immunity will be reached in July. Add about eight weeks for cases to drop near to zero after that, add two more weeks for recoveries. Best guess: late September.
Reasons this could be a bad estimate: more vulnerable people will have good vaccination coverage much sooner since they're being vaccinated first. This will take a big chunk out of deaths, but I don't think they'll go actually to zero until cases are near zero.
Vaccine rollout could also speed up.
Here is a comparison of timelines for the last three prototypes, in terms of how long it took them to fly after being moved to the launch site:
SN11 is due to move to the launch site Monday (March 8th), 5 days after SN10 flew.
— edited by chrisjbillington
It sounds like Andrew Yang is going to appear on Sam Harris's podcast, which has a large listenership.
Booster B1049 has just flown its 8th flight for the Starlink 17 mission and landed successfully.
That puts it equal first with B1051, which has also flown and landed 8 times.