@casens I wish we could somehow make this place more like a prediction market. Even if it's fake internet points, the "smart money" being able to stake more points when they know a prediction is off and move the community median by more would be great. I know the "metaculus" prediction serves this purpose somewhat, but we can't see it until the question closes.

@Jgalt Haha, so immediately the community prediction drops to 55%, as if to correct for Musk overconfidence.

I wonder if Musk wasn't just quoting metaculus.

@Rexracer63 Banning a subreddit isn't banning trading any more than banning /r/the_donald was banning voting.

@(adambear91) Here's the relevant slide from the Discovery SA presentation: https://i.imgur.com/xe1UpKK.png I notice that a) the same data shows delta having a *lower* hospitalisation rate than the original variant and b) they can only correct for *documented* prior-infection status. We know from [elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Virulence) that delta roughly doubles the chances of hospitalisation compared to the original variant, but this analysis doesn't show this. This makes me wonder if the fact that they cannot co...

This is what the community is currently predicting: https://i.imgur.com/vIzgCzV.png Looks a tad optimistic for the current trend, and I think assuming the trend will continue at this point is optimistic too. The delta variant is quite a bit more infectious, and the US is unlikely to be above the herd immunity threshold for it (as it looks like it is for the previous variants). I think a further wave of infections caused by the delta variant is on the cards in the coming months, which would set back the fall in the death rate - despite vaccines decreas...

Reddit argues that there is still a strong short position on GameStop such that the squeeze has not yet occurred. In the meantime hedge funds are telling the media they've closed their positions. I don't understand finance enough to verify these claims (are they even verifiable?), so for me it comes down to who to trust.

Should I trust meme-lords on Reddit, or hedge funds?

You're damn right it's the meme-lords.

Deputy Polish foreign minister says he spoke to the Prime Minister of Hungary, and received assurances that Hungary supports far-reaching sanctions, including blocking SWIFT.

(disclaimer: google translate, I can't tell for sure. Others are quoting this tweet as evidence Hungary will not oppose blocking SWIFT)

Auto-focus the search bar when the user clicks the "Search" button

Woo, my first Metaculus point!

Anyone want to explain their reasoning for a ~60% probability?

My prior is that it's going to be basically the same, and the evidence we have so far does not seem like much evidence at all.

Martin Luther King III endorses Andrew Yang, and basic income plan, for NYC mayor

R_eff is [maybe 2 to 2.5 in SA](https://twitter.com/lrossouw/status/1464691396581941261?t=5hqcjcu6w8mxa9phfEFFEw&s=19), whereas it was about 1.0 for delta prior to omicron. R_eff in the US for delta is also close to 1.0, so naively, R_eff for omicron will also be 2 to 2.5. If most of omicron's advantage is due to immune escape, then this might not be that naive. If there are ~10 cases per day of omicron in the US already (who knows, wild guess) then it'll take 67 days at an R_eff of 2 and assuming a generation time of 5 days, to exceed 100k cases per da...

It just exploded on the landing pad, but well after landing. Landing was still described by spacex as a success, so doesn't affect resolution!

@(ThirdEyeOpen) Even if it is at orbital velocity, such that it would have completed an entire orbit if not for intentionally re-entering? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_spaceflight) defines: > An orbital spaceflight (or orbital flight) is a spaceflight in which a spacecraft is placed on a trajectory where it could remain in space for at least one orbit. Edit: for some discussion, see [here](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/5568/how-can-yuri-gagarins-vostok-1-flight-be-considered-to-have-been-orbital-since) on the topic of...

The delta variant of COVID has caused a new wave of COVID in the UK despite decent vaccine coverage.

Will the US have another wave of COVID due to the delta variant?

Could be modelled after this now-resolved question on whether the US would have a 4th wave:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-…

Someone needs to draw a diagram of how the mission is supposed to proceed, because I'm super confused about all the launches, vehicles, orbits and transfers - but I am under the impression that the landing vehicle may not launch on SLS even if the astronauts do, which will not satisfy the resolution criteria as written: > This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. The landing vehicle will be a Starship, and though we don't know what it will launch on yet, it ...

The Queen tests positive for Covid

Monarch, 95, is experiencing ‘mild cold-like symptoms’ but expects to continue carrying out light duties

@biloliiaa "The queen remains comfortable" was the wording, and doesn't give off that deathbed vibe compared to something like "the queen has been made comfortable"

Knowing Musk, they're probably aiming for liftoff at 4:20PM on April 20th.

@(Jgalt) I'm still 85% - the specific problems that caused the previous failures have been addressed, so I feel like the question is about the probability that no brand new failure modes present themselves. In that respect there have already been two flights without such failures, so odds are good. I don't know why Musk is more pessimistic at 60% - seriously think there's a good chance he was quoting Metaculus - perhaps his optimism only pertains to timeframes and not to chances of specific mission success. I do have the impression that many individual ...