@casens I wish we could somehow make this place more like a prediction market. Even if it's fake internet points, the "smart money" being able to stake more points when they know a prediction is off and move the community median by more would be great. I know the "metaculus" prediction serves this purpose somewhat, but we can't see it until the question closes.

@Jgalt Haha, so immediately the community prediction drops to 55%, as if to correct for Musk overconfidence.

I wonder if Musk wasn't just quoting metaculus.

@Rexracer63 Banning a subreddit isn't banning trading any more than banning /r/the_donald was banning voting.

This is what the community is currently predicting: https://i.imgur.com/vIzgCzV.png Looks a tad optimistic for the current trend, and I think assuming the trend will continue at this point is optimistic too. The delta variant is quite a bit more infectious, and the US is unlikely to be above the herd immunity threshold for it (as it looks like it is for the previous variants). I think a further wave of infections caused by the delta variant is on the cards in the coming months, which would set back the fall in the death rate - despite vaccines decreas...

Reddit argues that there is still a strong short position on GameStop such that the squeeze has not yet occurred. In the meantime hedge funds are telling the media they've closed their positions. I don't understand finance enough to verify these claims (are they even verifiable?), so for me it comes down to who to trust.

Should I trust meme-lords on Reddit, or hedge funds?

You're damn right it's the meme-lords.

Auto-focus the search bar when the user clicks the "Search" button

It just exploded on the landing pad, but well after landing. Landing was still described by spacex as a success, so doesn't affect resolution!

@(ThirdEyeOpen) Even if it is at orbital velocity, such that it would have completed an entire orbit if not for intentionally re-entering? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_spaceflight) defines: > An orbital spaceflight (or orbital flight) is a spaceflight in which a spacecraft is placed on a trajectory where it could remain in space for at least one orbit. Edit: for some discussion, see [here](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/5568/how-can-yuri-gagarins-vostok-1-flight-be-considered-to-have-been-orbital-since) on the topic of...

The delta variant of COVID has caused a new wave of COVID in the UK despite decent vaccine coverage.

Will the US have another wave of COVID due to the delta variant?

Could be modelled after this now-resolved question on whether the US would have a 4th wave:


Someone needs to draw a diagram of how the mission is supposed to proceed, because I'm super confused about all the launches, vehicles, orbits and transfers - but I am under the impression that the landing vehicle may not launch on SLS even if the astronauts do, which will not satisfy the resolution criteria as written: > This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. The landing vehicle will be a Starship, and though we don't know what it will launch on yet, it ...

Knowing Musk, they're probably aiming for liftoff at 4:20PM on April 20th.

@(Jgalt) I'm still 85% - the specific problems that caused the previous failures have been addressed, so I feel like the question is about the probability that no brand new failure modes present themselves. In that respect there have already been two flights without such failures, so odds are good. I don't know why Musk is more pessimistic at 60% - seriously think there's a good chance he was quoting Metaculus - perhaps his optimism only pertains to timeframes and not to chances of specific mission success. I do have the impression that many individual ...

SN11 is moving along at breakneck pace, and was ready for static fire on Friday already - which didn't take place, presumably due to a delivery of propellant being delayed. It could static fire and fly very soon.

However, there's speculation that the first booster prototype BN1 may take precedent over the next starship prototype SN15, such that SN15 might not be the next vehicle on the pad. If so, that would push out the timeline for this question.

At the current rate of immunisation, ~70% herd immunity will be reached in July. Add about eight weeks for cases to drop near to zero after that, add two more weeks for recoveries. Best guess: late September.

Reasons this could be a bad estimate: more vulnerable people will have good vaccination coverage much sooner since they're being vaccinated first. This will take a big chunk out of deaths, but I don't think they'll go actually to zero until cases are near zero.

Vaccine rollout could also speed up.

Here is a comparison of timelines for the last three prototypes, in terms of how long it took them to fly after being moved to the launch site:


SN11 is due to move to the launch site Monday (March 8th), 5 days after SN10 flew.

— edited by chrisjbillington

It sounds like Andrew Yang is going to appear on Sam Harris's podcast, which has a large listenership.

Booster B1049 has just flown its 8th flight for the Starlink 17 mission and landed successfully.

That puts it equal first with B1051, which has also flown and landed 8 times.

@AngraMainyu I certainly made my predictions assuming local time.