### cdo256 (6) Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

He has to decide to run, win the nomination, then win the election given that. One plausible base rate is to look at the ratio of: 1. Elected presidents, who lost an election and then won again. 2. Elected presidents, who lost an election. From [a Wikipedia list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_former_United_States_presidents_who_ran_for_office), it appears Cleveland is the only president who achieved this. So the numerator is 1. From [a WikiData query](https://query.wikidata.org/#SELECT%20DISTINCT%20%3Fincumbent%20%3FincumbentLabel%20%3Felecti...

### cdo256 (5) What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?

In 2021 only 3 (11%) countries increased their real spending by 25%. 2015-2020, the number has been 1-2 (4-7%). Unfortunately, this range doesn't include years with new geopolitical threats to NATO. A close analogy would be NATO in 2014, but I don't have data for that.

This is based on table 3 in https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assetâ€¦.

### cdo256 (1) Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

@imoatama Shouldn't it be 54% by your spreadsheet? Otherwise you're summing twice.