He has to decide to run, win the nomination, then win the election given that. One plausible base rate is to look at the ratio of: 1. Elected presidents, who lost an election and then won again. 2. Elected presidents, who lost an election. From [a Wikipedia list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_former_United_States_presidents_who_ran_for_office), it appears Cleveland is the only president who achieved this. So the numerator is 1. From [a WikiData query](https://query.wikidata.org/#SELECT%20DISTINCT%20%3Fincumbent%20%3FincumbentLabel%20%3Felecti...

In 2021 only 3 (11%) countries increased their real spending by 25%. 2015-2020, the number has been 1-2 (4-7%). Unfortunately, this range doesn't include years with new geopolitical threats to NATO. A close analogy would be NATO in 2014, but I don't have data for that.

This is based on table 3 in https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/asset….

@imoatama Shouldn't it be 54% by your spreadsheet? Otherwise you're summing twice.