@elspeth Not even just selection bias. He predicted Gore would win in 2000 and Trump would win 2016. Either he's predicting electoral college or popular vote, and either way he missed one of those two.
A short fuse question about the three gorges dam would be good. "partial collapse before End of September" would be the thrust of it I think
I'd be interested in the related question "how many states does 538 miss?". As I recall, in 2016, their model output included a prediction of number of missed states -- i'd be interested to see if the community thinks that the model's predictions of its own mistakes were approximately correct.
Recall campaign claims to have gathered 1,825,000 signatures as of this morning.
Based on an 82.1% validity rate, that would be sufficient for the recall to happen.
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I think >60% is overconfident.
Yang has a lead in head-to-head polls. But this is a ranked choice election. A 25-15 (what it seems to be?) lead in polls is just not that hard to overcome with peoples second and third choice picks.
I don't think it would be shocking if Yang won. I just don't think it would be shocking if he lost either. I'm sceptical of people putting down 70+%. I doubt the polls are really high-quality enough to get us there in this setting, and I don't see anyone citing other reasons.
@eibbett I think you're right.
But it does make it hard to argue that Yang is out of touch if he had the 'most correct' answer. As this was one (large) piece of opposition case against Yang, it may be useful for him to advertise.
This... represents a lower bound. If all the vaccines they are counting qualify, then March 20th (or April 3rd with a uniform 2-week lag) would be the earliest date this could resolve positive.
@Tamay Or more concretely, in the US, if every single individual had been infected, a 0.15% IFR would imply ~495,000 deaths. The US has already surpassed this count of deaths attributed to covid (at ~560k today according to NYT), indicating a higher IFR, and the US has new cases every day, indicating less than a 100% infection rate (again, indicating a higher IFR).
This is not a probabilistic sanity check, this is a pure bound on the IFR. We know the IFR (in the US) is above 0.15%. It cannot be below that.
I would like a setting to make it so that metaculus displays of 'median forecast', etc are all based on all forecasts but my own. (I haven't dug into things in depth, but I don't believe that this is what I see).
I.e. I want the option for my changing forecasts to not affect what I see the metaculus median as being.
Wow, I've never had so much trouble coming up with a reasonable point estimate.
I refuse to bet on this and related scenarios.
Personally, I feel that in-depth gaming out of these situations normalizes them and brings them way too far into the overton window for my preferences. Self-fulfilling prophecies are real, and as it is said, we must snip "the threads of destiny one by one".
There is of course value in the forecasts and discussion -- and I certainly don't intend to disparage or discourage others. I merely intend that forecasters know of another filter (of many) in who participates.