all news sources i know of have projected at least 50 republicans in the senate. this question doesn't resolve positive on a 50-50 tie, so it should resolve negative.

ping @admins

@(notany) "no *more* shy trump voters"? trump voters are not what i think of as "shy". in 2016, there were more undecided voters between 2 candidates with low approval ratings, and they broke for trump. trump had the advantage of being a high-variance candidate, with no previous public service for comparison. this year, trump has a clear record to judge. additionally, polls in 2016 underrepresented white voters without college degrees. both of those factors easily explain the upset in 2016, where "shy trump voters" is a just-so story with no eviden...

@AdamRen if you're not sharing information or offering your own forecast or reasoning, please share your thoughts somewhere where they're more appropriate, like twitter or predictit comments.

@NoUsernameSelected i can confirm that i personally do take unaligned AGI as a possible outcome in any long-term question (such as, "when will english wikipedia reach its 10 millionth article"), and that apparently i give much higher odds to unaligned AGI than the median metaculus user. the only default assumption i preserve on all questions is that metaculus continues to exist, i continue to care about metaculus points, i value metaculus points at the same level as i do now, etc.

@Anthony like any true compromise, unambiguous resolution should leave everyone unhappy.

instead, i would prefer picking one of the two values by quantum RNG.

in a paper written in november 2021 in collaboration with NASA/spaceX employees, jennifer heldmann writes:

SpaceX is aggressively developing Starship for initial orbital flights, after which they intend to fly uncrewed flights to the Moon and conduct initial test flights to Mars at the earliest Mars mission opportunity, potentially as soon as 2022, or failing that in the 2024 window

@predictors please note that the current resolution criteria have been edited and clarified. in particular, the current SCOTUS case (dobbs) will count for resolution.

@cd suppose biden is impeached or resigns. should the question resolve early as well?

if not, i suggest we just say "will DC be a state by Jan 20, 2025", and be done with it. tying it to biden's term seems like it opens up more uncertainty and edge cases, and the potential for people to misread it (thinking it might mean biden's presidency if he has 2 terms)

— edited by casens

@Sylvain that would go against the spirit of "north and south korea unify into a single sovereign state", and i would resolve ambiguous. we could further specify that this sovereign state has its capitol on the korean peninsula to qualify?

sometimes metaculus doesn't scratch my itch of competitiveness. on a traditional betting market, winning X dollars feels pretty satisfying, and the payout is often close to how risky/uncertain the market is vs my prediction confidence. on metaculus i feel like the points are often easy to earn and don't quite give me a sense of how skilled i am as a predictor. for example, "announcement of evidence of aliens in 2019?" is very obvious, and most questions seem like you can get better than 0 points pretty easily by entering wide confidence intervals. i ...

i think we should also note that this change is for our points used in general on the site, and does not apply to tournament scoring

@emilowk i have an ELO-like system where predictors are compared head-to-head using only the set of questions shared by both players, but this margin is too small to contain it

i think it would be interesting to re-open this or duplicate it. is anyone else interested?

current polling suggests republican support for impeachment is about 15%, close to the 15%-9% approval polling during the ukraine impeachment.

— edited by casens

could we make 1 numeric range question, rather than several binary questions?

this question has bothered me for a while, so i figured i should put down all my thoughts in one place and make sure they make sense. here are some of my objections: * the question is only meaningful so long as the metaculus community exists. most of our questions are not so; for example in [sustainable off-world presence by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/), metaculus could fold in 2025, with some historians/archaeologists noticing the data in 2060, and think "how interesting! ...
@(PeterWildeford) yes, if russian activity occurs only within those territories in [this wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine), the question will not resolve positively. in my own view, i think this is unlikely, as it appears that there have already been some cyber attacks in ukraine (whether the P5 cite this and whether it's demonstrably proven to be directed by russia is another possible wrinkle, but 2023 is long, and if the invasion starts within the donetsk/luhansk, it could easily spill beyond th...

Release date is set to the date on which the book can be purchased at Amazon.com

this is confusing, as it can mean "date at which pre-orders are announced", which can often be 6 months in advance or more. why not just the obvious and unambiguous "date at which the book is released in at least one country"?

there needs to be a way to delete questions that are drafts or pending mod approval

i think the headline question is a little misleading and click-baity. i would go with "will [english-speaking] twitter have happier [average] content in 2021 than 2020?"

"average" i'm not sure is necessary in the title, or if so, what's the natural way to phrase it. "english-speaking" makes sense but makes the title a little over-wordy

— edited by casens