@notany i think 98% of voters will be voting straight-ticket, so the entire race can be modeled as a single election

@Roko the question author TomL is an admin. we're interested in both questions that are long-term, and short-term. if you don't find this question interesting, you're welcome to submit a draft on the time-scale you find relevant.

@(richardson.andrew) the amount of points you recieve is a mixture of your confidence vs. the community, the number of other predictions, and the percentage of the open period (plus a bump for your prediction at closing time). imagine you have a question "will we be contacted by aliens before 2041", and it's open from 2020 to 2030. there is some chance that aliens will just show up on the day after the question opens, so you might predict 99%. if they don't, let's say you revise down to your true probability (let's say 10%) for the rest of the 10 year...

this is an insightful question which will help inform descision-making on serious issues.

i've lightly edited the question and set it live.

@cjroth there is plenty of time for the public's views to shift or for trump to calibrate his message. the invasion just started and election day is 2.5 years away

@Matthew_Barnett i've added these changes as you've suggested.

Now that this is "the AGI question" on Metaculus,

*until the goalposts are moved again :)

i thought i'd clarify one point: question groups allow us to ask a lot of questions all at the same time (like, the chances for each of 32 teams of winning the 2022 world cup), but it is not necessary to make a prediction on every item. question groups are basically a layer for many individual questions, each of which is scored independently. so for the FIFA question, as far as the scoring is concerned, it's not a single question with 32 choices, it's actually 32 binary questions.

@mumpskin we tried as much as possible to incentivize you to predict what you truly believe, and award more points if you're generally more accurate. we're not quite there but we do our best!

thanks predictors for your patience-- the admin team has agreed that the current case ([dobbs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization)) may qualify for resolution, as would [texas' recent bill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act) . i found this to be an interesting case where the resolution criteria was actually *over-specified*, when it seemed that the intent of the criteria was simply to be inclusive. i've made an edit which i hope is more clear. in addition, i've changed the standard of resolutio...

i'm a bit late to this, but my understanding is that "peak oil" generally means peak production, and the related doomsday scenarios where demand remains high as supply gets more scarce and expensive.

my suggestion is the question should say "will oil consumption rebound no sooner than 2026?"

— edited by casens

@redcell254 this is not a forum for political debates. please keep your comments focused on sharing information and forecasting. see our community guidelines if this is unclear.

the community currently thinks that trump is [75% likely to run](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/) for president in 2024 (my prediction is 90%). the community here currently thinks 55%. so that's a 73% chance that if trump runs, he wins the republican nomination (or a member of his family does, which i'll ignore since i think that's a 2% likely outcome). for anyone who thinks that P(trump is republican nominee | trump decides to run) = 73% is about right (or too confident), i would love to hear your...

@ThirdEyeOpen we have agreed to this bet, $100 versus $25, that less than 70 people will have walked on the moon by 2030.

it would be cool to see questions sorted by

  • volatility (average size of changed predictions per predictor)

  • divergence (amount of disagreement among average predictors (maybe weighted more on high-level users))

  • unexpectedness (divergence of resolution value from community median).

— edited by casens

@BY100 i'm sad that it will probably be trivial to look up this price because i want to end up writing a craigslist post that reads "go to any taco bell in westfield and send me a picture of the menu, and i will bitcoin you $25". it would be so cyberpunk. i mean, i could still do that even if it weren't for metaculus but that would be silly

i believe they mentioned on their podcast that they weren't releasing a live forecast this year.

US embassy in russia releases a security alert today:

According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine.

Actions to take: [...] Have evacuation plans that do not rely on U.S. government assistance.

@mtrazzi someone could also choose to retire, or the court could expand their size

i'm surprised by the contrast between this question median (23% at the moment), the AI Ragnarok questions ([will 10% of the human population decline over 5 years by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (median: 25%) and [if such an event occurs, will it be principally caused by AI?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-in...