@BY100 i'm sad that it will probably be trivial to look up this price because i want to end up writing a craigslist post that reads "go to any taco bell in westfield and send me a picture of the menu, and i will bitcoin you $25". it would be so cyberpunk. i mean, i could still do that even if it weren't for metaculus but that would be silly

i believe they mentioned on their podcast that they weren't releasing a live forecast this year.

@mtrazzi someone could also choose to retire, or the court could expand their size

@Reprisal while we may eventually recieve evidence that COVID-19 was not natural, we're unlikely to recieve definitive proof that it wasn't. so, yes, we could wait 5 years, or we could accept the null hypothesis.

@Uncle Jeff sounds like we should start a question "if puerto rico becomes a state before 2030, will its first 2 senators be members of the democratic party?" i think i would sit close to 50%

@oriscratch in the fine-print:

While this question is intended as an operationalization of "herd immunity", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.

it seems to me that the most fair way to interpret the question is to resolve on 230M infected or vaccinated against vanilla COVID-19, even if vaccines give no immunity to some highly deadly COVID-21.

all news sources i know of have projected at least 50 republicans in the senate. this question doesn't resolve positive on a 50-50 tie, so it should resolve negative.

ping @admins

@(notany) "no *more* shy trump voters"? trump voters are not what i think of as "shy". in 2016, there were more undecided voters between 2 candidates with low approval ratings, and they broke for trump. trump had the advantage of being a high-variance candidate, with no previous public service for comparison. this year, trump has a clear record to judge. additionally, polls in 2016 underrepresented white voters without college degrees. both of those factors easily explain the upset in 2016, where "shy trump voters" is a just-so story with no eviden...

@Anthony like any true compromise, unambiguous resolution should leave everyone unhappy.

instead, i would prefer picking one of the two values by quantum RNG.

@predictors please note that the current resolution criteria have been edited and clarified. in particular, the current SCOTUS case (dobbs) will count for resolution.

@cd suppose biden is impeached or resigns. should the question resolve early as well?

if not, i suggest we just say "will DC be a state by Jan 20, 2025", and be done with it. tying it to biden's term seems like it opens up more uncertainty and edge cases, and the potential for people to misread it (thinking it might mean biden's presidency if he has 2 terms)

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@Sylvain that would go against the spirit of "north and south korea unify into a single sovereign state", and i would resolve ambiguous. we could further specify that this sovereign state has its capitol on the korean peninsula to qualify?

sometimes metaculus doesn't scratch my itch of competitiveness. on a traditional betting market, winning X dollars feels pretty satisfying, and the payout is often close to how risky/uncertain the market is vs my prediction confidence. on metaculus i feel like the points are often easy to earn and don't quite give me a sense of how skilled i am as a predictor. for example, "announcement of evidence of aliens in 2019?" is very obvious, and most questions seem like you can get better than 0 points pretty easily by entering wide confidence intervals. i ...

@emilowk i have an ELO-like system where predictors are compared head-to-head using only the set of questions shared by both players, but this margin is too small to contain it

i think it would be interesting to re-open this or duplicate it. is anyone else interested?

current polling suggests republican support for impeachment is about 15%, close to the 15%-9% approval polling during the ukraine impeachment.

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could we make 1 numeric range question, rather than several binary questions?

@ThirdEyeOpen we have agreed to this bet, $100 versus $25, that less than 70 people will have walked on the moon by 2030.

Release date is set to the date on which the book can be purchased at Amazon.com

this is confusing, as it can mean "date at which pre-orders are announced", which can often be 6 months in advance or more. why not just the obvious and unambiguous "date at which the book is released in at least one country"?