@(galaga) the question terms were "will gamestop reach 420.69 by **end of year**", so the question was open for a wide period (initially to the end of november, then revised to end of march). when a question resolves early, usually it is appropriate to not change the closing date, so you're awarded points for only a fraction of the total period (about 3 days out of 60, here). if this rule were not in place, it would create an incentive to always predict 99% early in the question, then gradually revise down to 1% as the question approaches the close dat...
# casens candidacy my fellow metaculoids, i believe in the dream of metaculus. in so many fields, *reading about* a subject confers much less knowledge than *doing* the subject: you can learn programming by reading about python, but you learn 50 times more by *writing* python. you can learn about the history of the telegraph in a well-written book, but you'll learn more by trying to answer a question that hasn't been answered yet, piecing together the evidence yourself. metaculus is like this: instead of passively taking in information about politic...
i've just re-read the terms of the prediction, which state that unless there is media consensus on the winner of the election within 1 week of election day, the question resolves ambiguous. that would either imply very quick counting of absentee ballots, or a hugely decisive victory for either trump or biden, and under those outcomes, a biden victory is clearly more likely. it's a shame though, there's probably a 40% chance or greater that this question will resolve ambiguously under these terms. a lot of people will probably be unhappy. unless we wa...

@Linch although coronatime can be disorienting, it is not yet 2021-01-21


  1. almost half of people have already voted

  2. BLM has more favorability than unfavorability, and biden's support actually went up after the george floyd protests

  3. there's not that many undecided voters, and it's unlikely that they'd be influenced more by this riot than the george floyd riots

  4. i'd say biden still has an 85% chance of winning pennsylvania, but even if he didn't, that's not a guaranteed trump victory. given trump wins pennsylvania, i'd say biden has a 30% chance.

@jacobef2 i think metaculus is comparable to the pyramids of giza, at least to some degree

i understand that people dislike the historical bias of "~80% of binary questions will resolve negative" but this question is a good example of why inverting the question phrasing is more trouble than it's worth. it leads to unneccesary linguistic contrivance, which probably increases people's errors in recording their true predictions. might also discourage people from participating at all.

but if i had a gun to my head, i'd phrase the question as "will trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?"

— edited by casens

this currently holds the record for "most points i've earned on a question" as well as "most points earned on a question which i didn't deserve"

this question should have been closed, resolved as ambiguous, and re-opened with the new resolution model.

it would be nice to have a history view on each question on the display where you create your prediction curve. you could drag a slider to see the community prediction change over time, or see your current prediction overlaid your past predictions. this would especially be fun to see after the prediction has resolved.

@Jgalt real metaculus users have a professional account (for job interviews, marriage proposals, loan applications) and a "getting blackout drunk" account for this reason

— edited by casens

@Jgalt i'm at 10%. negative partisanship is a hell of a drug

@notany i think 98% of voters will be voting straight-ticket, so the entire race can be modeled as a single election

@(richardson.andrew) the amount of points you recieve is a mixture of your confidence vs. the community, the number of other predictions, and the percentage of the open period (plus a bump for your prediction at closing time). imagine you have a question "will we be contacted by aliens before 2041", and it's open from 2020 to 2030. there is some chance that aliens will just show up on the day after the question opens, so you might predict 99%. if they don't, let's say you revise down to your true probability (let's say 10%) for the rest of the 10 year...

this is an insightful question which will help inform descision-making on serious issues.

i've lightly edited the question and set it live.

i'm a bit late to this, but my understanding is that "peak oil" generally means peak production, and the related doomsday scenarios where demand remains high as supply gets more scarce and expensive.

my suggestion is the question should say "will oil consumption rebound no sooner than 2026?"

— edited by casens

it would be cool to see questions sorted by

  • volatility (average size of changed predictions per predictor)

  • divergence (amount of disagreement among average predictors (maybe weighted more on high-level users))

  • unexpectedness (divergence of resolution value from community median).

— edited by casens

@BY100 i'm sad that it will probably be trivial to look up this price because i want to end up writing a craigslist post that reads "go to any taco bell in westfield and send me a picture of the menu, and i will bitcoin you $25". it would be so cyberpunk. i mean, i could still do that even if it weren't for metaculus but that would be silly

i believe they mentioned on their podcast that they weren't releasing a live forecast this year.

@Reprisal while we may eventually recieve evidence that COVID-19 was not natural, we're unlikely to recieve definitive proof that it wasn't. so, yes, we could wait 5 years, or we could accept the null hypothesis.