my apologies for the mistaken resolution notification. no points have been awarded, predicting will continue.
@predictors I again apologize for the mistaken resolution email sent today. The fault is my own; and essentially comes down to me having more than one tab open and not seeing which question I was resolving, until it was too late. I know tensions are quite high, and this error caused significant distress. The Metaculus team will be working on safeguards to prevent this kind of error in the future.
Emails are (in a small way) a bit like bombs -- they can't be un-delivered.
resolved as Yes according to twitter's amended 13D/A form
@rob.louis there was a brief period where metaculus users generally noticed that all binary questions had a 30% chance of resolving positively. as such, there were some attempts to randomly invert the +/- sign on binary questions, which i don't think anyone on the moderation team is currently doing.
@mitrontatidis the opposite happened: the community's prediction moved a lot and then people griped that we should change it to "weakly" general AI, and we agreed.
@Linch although coronatime can be disorienting, it is not yet 2021-01-21
almost half of people have already voted
BLM has more favorability than unfavorability, and biden's support actually went up after the george floyd protests
there's not that many undecided voters, and it's unlikely that they'd be influenced more by this riot than the george floyd riots
i'd say biden still has an 85% chance of winning pennsylvania, but even if he didn't, that's not a guaranteed trump victory. given trump wins pennsylvania, i'd say biden has a 30% chance.
@jacobef2 i think metaculus is comparable to the pyramids of giza, at least to some degree
@satisficer thanks, good question. a limited ceasefire such as this would not count. i've added this language to the resolution text: "The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes"
@predictors please be aware that i've added this clarification to the text.
i understand that people dislike the historical bias of "~80% of binary questions will resolve negative" but this question is a good example of why inverting the question phrasing is more trouble than it's worth. it leads to unneccesary linguistic contrivance, which probably increases people's errors in recording their true predictions. might also discourage people from participating at all.
but if i had a gun to my head, i'd phrase the question as "will trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?"
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this currently holds the record for "most points i've earned on a question" as well as "most points earned on a question which i didn't deserve"
this question should have been closed, resolved as ambiguous, and re-opened with the new resolution model.
also, claims that polling is consistently inaccurate in one direction focus solely on presidential polling in 2016 and 2020, but ignore that other polling (congressional polling in those years and midterms, governors races) has not had any consistent bias.
it would be nice to have a history view on each question on the display where you create your prediction curve. you could drag a slider to see the community prediction change over time, or see your current prediction overlaid your past predictions. this would especially be fun to see after the prediction has resolved.
@Jgalt real metaculus users have a professional account (for job interviews, marriage proposals, loan applications) and a "getting blackout drunk" account for this reason
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