@Linch although coronatime can be disorienting, it is not yet 2021-01-21
almost half of people have already voted
BLM has more favorability than unfavorability, and biden's support actually went up after the george floyd protests
there's not that many undecided voters, and it's unlikely that they'd be influenced more by this riot than the george floyd riots
i'd say biden still has an 85% chance of winning pennsylvania, but even if he didn't, that's not a guaranteed trump victory. given trump wins pennsylvania, i'd say biden has a 30% chance.
@jacobef2 i think metaculus is comparable to the pyramids of giza, at least to some degree
@rob.louis there was a brief period where metaculus users generally noticed that all binary questions had a 30% chance of resolving positively. as such, there were some attempts to randomly invert the +/- sign on binary questions, which i don't think anyone on the moderation team is currently doing.
i understand that people dislike the historical bias of "~80% of binary questions will resolve negative" but this question is a good example of why inverting the question phrasing is more trouble than it's worth. it leads to unneccesary linguistic contrivance, which probably increases people's errors in recording their true predictions. might also discourage people from participating at all.
but if i had a gun to my head, i'd phrase the question as "will trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?"
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this currently holds the record for "most points i've earned on a question" as well as "most points earned on a question which i didn't deserve"
this question should have been closed, resolved as ambiguous, and re-opened with the new resolution model.
it would be nice to have a history view on each question on the display where you create your prediction curve. you could drag a slider to see the community prediction change over time, or see your current prediction overlaid your past predictions. this would especially be fun to see after the prediction has resolved.
@Jgalt real metaculus users have a professional account (for job interviews, marriage proposals, loan applications) and a "getting blackout drunk" account for this reason
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the performance of PaLM indicates this is closer to a matter of "when will somebody bother to run a test that meets the criteria" than "when will AI be capable of meeting the criteria"
@Jgalt i'm at 10%. negative partisanship is a hell of a drug
My opinion on Keynesian Beauty Contests is about the same as the average Metaculus user's opinion.
my opinion on keynesian beauty contests is favorable if this comment has a positive score, and unfavorable if it has a negative score.
@notany i think 98% of voters will be voting straight-ticket, so the entire race can be modeled as a single election
@Roko the question author TomL is an admin. we're interested in both questions that are long-term, and short-term. if you don't find this question interesting, you're welcome to submit a draft on the time-scale you find relevant.