@(galaga) the question terms were "will gamestop reach 420.69 by **end of year**", so the question was open for a wide period (initially to the end of november, then revised to end of march). when a question resolves early, usually it is appropriate to not change the closing date, so you're awarded points for only a fraction of the total period (about 3 days out of 60, here). if this rule were not in place, it would create an incentive to always predict 99% early in the question, then gradually revise down to 1% as the question approaches the close dat...
# casens candidacy my fellow metaculoids, i believe in the dream of metaculus. in so many fields, *reading about* a subject confers much less knowledge than *doing* the subject: you can learn programming by reading about python, but you learn 50 times more by *writing* python. you can learn about the history of the telegraph in a well-written book, but you'll learn more by trying to answer a question that hasn't been answered yet, piecing together the evidence yourself. metaculus is like this: instead of passively taking in information about politic...
i've just re-read the terms of the prediction, which state that unless there is media consensus on the winner of the election within 1 week of election day, the question resolves ambiguous. that would either imply very quick counting of absentee ballots, or a hugely decisive victory for either trump or biden, and under those outcomes, a biden victory is clearly more likely. it's a shame though, there's probably a 40% chance or greater that this question will resolve ambiguously under these terms. a lot of people will probably be unhappy. unless we wa...

@Linch although coronatime can be disorienting, it is not yet 2021-01-21


  1. almost half of people have already voted

  2. BLM has more favorability than unfavorability, and biden's support actually went up after the george floyd protests

  3. there's not that many undecided voters, and it's unlikely that they'd be influenced more by this riot than the george floyd riots

  4. i'd say biden still has an 85% chance of winning pennsylvania, but even if he didn't, that's not a guaranteed trump victory. given trump wins pennsylvania, i'd say biden has a 30% chance.

@jacobef2 i think metaculus is comparable to the pyramids of giza, at least to some degree

@rob.louis there was a brief period where metaculus users generally noticed that all binary questions had a 30% chance of resolving positively. as such, there were some attempts to randomly invert the +/- sign on binary questions, which i don't think anyone on the moderation team is currently doing.

i understand that people dislike the historical bias of "~80% of binary questions will resolve negative" but this question is a good example of why inverting the question phrasing is more trouble than it's worth. it leads to unneccesary linguistic contrivance, which probably increases people's errors in recording their true predictions. might also discourage people from participating at all.

but if i had a gun to my head, i'd phrase the question as "will trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?"

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this currently holds the record for "most points i've earned on a question" as well as "most points earned on a question which i didn't deserve"

this question should have been closed, resolved as ambiguous, and re-opened with the new resolution model.

it would be nice to have a history view on each question on the display where you create your prediction curve. you could drag a slider to see the community prediction change over time, or see your current prediction overlaid your past predictions. this would especially be fun to see after the prediction has resolved.

@Jgalt real metaculus users have a professional account (for job interviews, marriage proposals, loan applications) and a "getting blackout drunk" account for this reason

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@(johnnycaffeine) with due respect to @johnnycaffeine , you do not determine the resolution of the question, admins do. we would consider your opinions, arguments, and evidence equally as with the other users of the site. if i was forced to resolve today, i would lean towards ambiguous, but resolution does not need to take place until the end of the year. and there is, of course, potential for future invasions in the remainder of the year. if you find this ambiguity frustrating, take comfort that i anticipated much of this frustrating ambiguity when ...

@Rexracer63 "never wrestle with a pig. you get dirty, and the pig likes it" -- abraham lincoln

the performance of PaLM indicates this is closer to a matter of "when will somebody bother to run a test that meets the criteria" than "when will AI be capable of meeting the criteria"

@Jgalt i'm at 10%. negative partisanship is a hell of a drug


My opinion on Keynesian Beauty Contests is about the same as the average Metaculus user's opinion.

my opinion on keynesian beauty contests is favorable if this comment has a positive score, and unfavorable if it has a negative score.

@predictors please note that the terms of the question have been changed. russian recognition of an independent state in ukraine is no longer a term in the question, only russian military control. thank you for your feedback! incidentally, this point was also raised by some of the other admins when developing this question, but i can see i didn't address the issue sufficiently. a few other clarifications: currently the DNR/LNR do not control all of luhansk and donetsk oblasts. these administrative boundaries were chosen for resolution because they a...

@notany i think 98% of voters will be voting straight-ticket, so the entire race can be modeled as a single election

@Roko the question author TomL is an admin. we're interested in both questions that are long-term, and short-term. if you don't find this question interesting, you're welcome to submit a draft on the time-scale you find relevant.