@Linch although coronatime can be disorienting, it is not yet 2021-01-21
almost half of people have already voted
BLM has more favorability than unfavorability, and biden's support actually went up after the george floyd protests
there's not that many undecided voters, and it's unlikely that they'd be influenced more by this riot than the george floyd riots
i'd say biden still has an 85% chance of winning pennsylvania, but even if he didn't, that's not a guaranteed trump victory. given trump wins pennsylvania, i'd say biden has a 30% chance.
i understand that people dislike the historical bias of "~80% of binary questions will resolve negative" but this question is a good example of why inverting the question phrasing is more trouble than it's worth. it leads to unneccesary linguistic contrivance, which probably increases people's errors in recording their true predictions. might also discourage people from participating at all.
but if i had a gun to my head, i'd phrase the question as "will trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?"
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this currently holds the record for "most points i've earned on a question" as well as "most points earned on a question which i didn't deserve"
this question should have been closed, resolved as ambiguous, and re-opened with the new resolution model.
it would be nice to have a history view on each question on the display where you create your prediction curve. you could drag a slider to see the community prediction change over time, or see your current prediction overlaid your past predictions. this would especially be fun to see after the prediction has resolved.
@Jgalt real metaculus users have a professional account (for job interviews, marriage proposals, loan applications) and a "getting blackout drunk" account for this reason
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@Jgalt i'm at 10%. negative partisanship is a hell of a drug
@notany i think 98% of voters will be voting straight-ticket, so the entire race can be modeled as a single election
i'm a bit late to this, but my understanding is that "peak oil" generally means peak production, and the related doomsday scenarios where demand remains high as supply gets more scarce and expensive.
my suggestion is the question should say "will oil consumption rebound no sooner than 2026?"
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@jacobef2 i think metaculus is comparable to the pyramids of giza, at least to some degree
@BY100 i'm sad that it will probably be trivial to look up this price because i want to end up writing a craigslist post that reads "go to any taco bell in westfield and send me a picture of the menu, and i will bitcoin you $25". it would be so cyberpunk. i mean, i could still do that even if it weren't for metaculus but that would be silly
i believe they mentioned on their podcast that they weren't releasing a live forecast this year.
@Uncle Jeff sounds like we should start a question "if puerto rico becomes a state before 2030, will its first 2 senators be members of the democratic party?" i think i would sit close to 50%
@oriscratch in the fine-print:
While this question is intended as an operationalization of "herd immunity", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.
it seems to me that the most fair way to interpret the question is to resolve on 230M infected or vaccinated against vanilla COVID-19, even if vaccines give no immunity to some highly deadly COVID-21.
all news sources i know of have projected at least 50 republicans in the senate. this question doesn't resolve positive on a 50-50 tie, so it should resolve negative.